SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

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By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 30, 2019

Tit - Bits 1. Today , P C Jewellers Ltd (Rs.30.20) touched Rs.31.85 on the upside riding the retail story, before closing at Rs.30.20. With the GDP growth according to the new method nosediving to 4.50% (old method -- 3%), and uncertainty prevailing, the natural tendency to invest in gold and other precious metals comes to fore. However, if the scrip is able to cross Rs.32/32.50 region with good volume then we can think of higher targets. I shall speak with my sources next week. Many investors ask me why I didn't post in MMB for years. The reason is I don't go to such a filthy place, managed by Moneycontrol manipulators, who pose as admins and take decisions according to their whims and caprices. Moreover most inputs I saw recently, are of junk category. So, not interested. 2. The scrip of Reliance Capital has fallen to around Rs.15.15, while Reliance Infrastructure Ltd closed at Rs.26.40. It is inte...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 29, 2019

Vakrangee Ltd: Update CMP: Rs.40.70 It is interesting to note that in the last year, Vakrangee paid out 90% of its profit as dividends. However, the dividend has been cut by more than 20% on at least one occasion historically. During the past ten-year period, the first annual payment was ₹0.025 in 2009, compared to ₹0.25 last year. Dividends per share have grown at approximately 26% per year over this time. Having said that, it has to be understood that dividends haven’t grown at precisely 26% every year, though this is a useful way to average out the historical rate of growth. But one issue which is a matter of concern is that Vakrangee’s EPS has shrunk at 31% a year over the past 5 years. Such kind of move generally provides instability to a stock price, and this was evident in its erratic movement during the last few years. But then, with a strong net cash balance, Vakrangee Ltd's share...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 27, 2019

Tit - bits #The scrip of Future Consumer Ltd (Rs. 26.70) today moved to Rs.27.25 and reached its first target. Hope most of you have booked some profits. To know what to do next, you need to join any of my services. It does matter which country you belong to, as long as you have an internet connection. #The investors / traders having a penchant for risk can buy the "MAD - stock" named, Vakrangee Ltd (Rs.39.75). The promoters are rumoured to be playing in the scrip and hence it has the capacity to move up-to dizzy heights. It is pertinent to mention here that the share shot up from Rs.50 - something in 2015 to more than Rs.500 by January 2018. Life Time high: Rs.515.00 (24-Jan-18). Life Time low Rs.0.46 (09-Mar-09). From the above figures you can understand the quantum of returns the scrip of Vakrangee Ltd can deliver to an investor over a given period. Dinesh Nandwana, promoter of Vakrangee, bought 31 lakh shares of the...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 27, 2019

P C Jewellers Ltd: Buy The investors with short to medium term perspective can buy the shares of P C Jewelers Ltd near the CMP of Rs.30.30, for short term targets of Rs.41/66. SL: Rs.27. The Book Value of the shares of the company is Rs.99.67 and the Market Cap is only Rs. 1,196.86 Crore 4 (Four) Principal Triggers : The US has imposed a 10% duty on Chinese gems and jewellery items from September 1, 2019, which will indirectly help the Indian diamond sector. The items that will come under this tariff net are diamonds, cultured and natural pearls, rubies, emeralds, and sapphires, synthetic precious stones, including diamonds, silver jewellery, gold necklaces and neck chains and religious jewellery. The NDA government has increased duty drawback rates for gold and silver jewellery, a move that would make Indian exports from these sectors more competitive in the global market. This notification shall come into effect from November, 2019. The government's decisi...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 26, 2019

Tit - Bits #Today the shares of Future Consumer Ltd moved to Rs.26.45 before closing at Rs.25.65. Tomorrow you can book some profits near the 1st target. # MRPL (Rs.48.15) is likely to get merged with HPCL in 2020. Those who have a slightly longer term view, should buy this scrip and hold. It is a sure shot profit giving stock for the medium to long term. #The stock of SAIL (Rs.38.60) is consolidating at the current ranges. You can keep holding with the Stop Loss mentioned earlier. #Tomorrow, I'll recommend a short term momentum counter by 10 am in the morning in this blog. Stay tuned. And don't, play in my recommended counters without the use of appropriate stop loss. Those who have portfolio size of around Rs. 3 - 5 lakhs can seek my help, to make money on profit sharing basis (ratio --> 70:30), with new theories and result orient approaches. You also don't need to open a fresh Dmat account. You ca...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 25, 2019

Tit - bits #The scrip of Steel Authority of India Ltd which was recommended at around Rs.37, last week, in this blog made a high of Rs. 40.35 today. You can book some profits and keep the rest with a SL of Rs. 38.50. #Those who have a time frame of 2/3 months can buy the stock of Future Consumer Ltd (Rs.23) and hold.... It belongs to the reputed Future group of companies and would get benefited as consumer demand starts to improve from Q3FY20, due to festive and winter demands.

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 25, 2019

Mangalore Refineries and Perrochemicals Ltd (MRPL): Buy CMP: Rs.48.40 Short Term Targets: Rs.61/66. Book Value: Rs.61.21 Dividend Yield: 2.06% SL: Rs.45 Introduction : Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MRPL) is a schedule ‘A’ Miniratna, Central Public Sector Enterprise (CPSE) under the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas. MRPL is located in a beautiful hilly terrain, north of Mangaluru city, in Dakshina Kannada District of Karnataka State (India). The 15 Million Metric Tonne Refinery has got a versatile design with complex secondary processing units and a high flexibility to process Crudes of various API, delivering a variety of quality products. MRPL, with its parent company Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC), owns and operates ONGC Mangalore Petrochemicals Limited (OMPL), a petrochemical unit capable of producing 1 Million Tonnes of Para Xylene. OMPL, situated in the adjacent Mangalore Special Economic Zone ( MSEZ), is integrated with t...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 18, 2019

United Bank of India Ltd: Buy CMP: Rs.8.80 Book Value: Rs.14.24 Market Cap: Rs.6573.71 crore Industry P/E: Rs.174.85 Targets: Rs.17/21. Photo : Business Standard Introduction : United Bank of India is a public sector bank. Government of India holds 96.83% stake in the Bank (as on 30 September 2019). Financials: United Bank of India reported a spectacular set of numbers for the Q2FY20. It came up with a profit of Rs.124 crore for July-September period against loss of Rs.883.2 crore in the same period last year -- a brilliant performance indeed. Net interest income grew by 74.60% year-on-year to Rs.773 crore in the quarter ended September 2019. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) as a percentage of gross advances declined 38 Bps sequentially to 15.51% and net NPA as a percentage of net advances dropped 31Bps QoQ to 7.88 percent in Q2FY20. Provisions and contingencies fell sharply to Rs.436.4 crore in the September quarter against Rs.571.6 crore in ...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 09, 2019

Some of my recent recommendations & Conversation with Blog Visitors: Central Bank of India recommended at Photo : Internet around Rs. 17/17.50 moved to Rs. 24.75. Sarda Energy and Minerals Ltd recommended at around Rs. 167 made a high of Rs. 187 - plus. Reliance Capital Ltd recommended at around Rs. 17.50 made a high Rs. 24.75 and is hitting continuous Upper Circuits since then. Reliance Infrastructure Ltd recommend at around Rs. 35 made a high of Rs. 46 - plus and is continuously hitting Upper circuits since my recommendation. Den Networks Ltd recommended at around Rs.47/48 has closed at Rs.44.40 yesterday after my write up in Facebook. The stock though fundamentally strong has seen selling in tandem with the selling in the media sector on the fear that Mukhesh Ambani could create disruptions in the sector akin to his Telecom blockbuster; with his mega project piggybacking on optic fibre. If you are not a risk t...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - November 05, 2019

Den Networks : September Quarter Results DEN Networks Ltd posted a consolidated quarterly net sales of Rs.332.42 crore in September 2019, a 1% rise from Rs.310.37 crore in the corresponding period last year, according to reports. Net profit stood at Rs.14.72 crores, up from Rs.(-)28 crore in the previous year. EBITDA is up 63.79% from Rs.55.51 crores in September 2018, to Rs.90.92 crore in September 2019. DEN Networks Ltd's earnings per share (EPS) has risen to Rs.0.30 from Rs.1.44 in September 2018. Note : Due to some problem in my mobile and also on account of severe viral attacks on my computer system,I have not been able to access the internet and social media since some days. Hope the things will get streamlined within a couple of days.

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - October 31, 2019

Den Networks Ltd : Buy CMP: Rs.47.60 Targets: Rs.66/72 SL: Rs.44 Reliance Industries plans of rolling out fiber broadband services: On its 42nd annual general meeting (AGM), on August 12, 2019, Reliance Industries Ltd's (RIL) chairman and managing director Mukesh Ambani announced details related to the launch of Jio Fiber service, the triple play of broadband, TV and landline. Jio Fiber users will get free subscription to several OTT platforms. Reliance Jio Infocomm (‘Jio’), a subsidiary of RIL, has built a world-class all-IP data strong future proof network with the latest 4G LTE technology. Earlier this year, RIL acquired stakes in three leading MSOs, Hathway, Den and GTPL, who have direct relations with over 30,000 local cable operators (LCOs). Supreme Court verdict on Thursday that hugely widened the scope of adjusted gross revenue of operators and saddled them with mammoth Rs.92,000-crore dues, dealing a huge blow to Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel even ...

Sharda Energy & Minerals Ltd: Buy

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - October 30, 2019

Sharda Energy & Minerals Ltd : Buy CMP: Rs.167.50 Targets: Rs.203/220 SL: Rs.161. Sarda Energy & Minerals Limited (SEML), incorporated in 1973, is the flagship company of Sarda Group. It has a Promoters’ holding of 71.9%. It is a vertical integrated producer of steel with captive iron ore. It is also a manufacturer and exporter of niche grade manganese based ferro alloys. It generates captive power from Waste heat & coal. It also has interests in Hydro power projects through SPVs. It is a TWO STAR EXPORT HOUSE, recognized by the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt. of India. SEML is one of the lowest cost producers of steel (Sponge Iron, Billets, Ferro Alloys, Mining, Power, Pellets, Iron Ore,Wire Rod Mill, Eco Bricks) and one of the largest manufacturers and exporters of ferro alloys in India. Headquartered in Raipur, Chhattisgarh, the company merged Chhattisgarh Electricity Company Li...

Central Bank of India

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - October 24, 2019

Central Bank of India: Buy CMP: Rs.17.30 Book Value: Rs.46.08 Face Value: Rs.10 Target: Rs.27/31 SL: Rs.16.30. Introduction : Central Bank of India is a commercial bank. The bank’s segments include Treasury Operations, Corporate/Wholesale Banking, Retail Banking and other Banking business. Shareholding Pattern : The promoters holding in the company stood at a whooping 89.46%, while Institutions and Non-Institutions hold 6.67% and 3.87%, respectively; leaving very little stocks in the hands of retail investors. This adds value to its shares. Financials : For the June, 2019 quarter, the total income of the company came as Rs.65,18.37 crore, while its net profit for the same quarter came as Rs.115.71 crores, showing a turnaround. Triggers : Public sector lender, Central Bank of India informed recently that it has raised Rs. 500 crore through Tier II bonds. The tier-II bonds under Basel III is a hybrid subordinated instrument with equity-like loss...

Market Commentary

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - September 25, 2019

Winning Strokes As expected the domestic benchmark indices corrected sharply today, amid broad based selling pressure. Banks, auto and metals tumbled. The S&P BSE Sensex, plummeted 503.62 points or 1.29% to settle at 38,593.52. The Nifty 50 index shed 148 points or 1.28% to close at 11,440.20. US political developments and tougher decibels from the Washington and Beijing on trade deal also spoiled investors sentiment. The market breadth was quite weak. On the BSE, 762 shares rose and 1755 shares fell. A total of 128 shares remain unchanged. I had given a sell on Nifty Bank at around 29810 for a target of 29550. The Bank Nifty closed at 29,586.05 down 597.05 points. I had given a sell on the markets yesterday, and I believe we will slowly glide down towards 9200 as the P/E is quite high. Meanwhile, the initial irrational euphoria created by the media, post FM's cut of corporate tax has started to cow down. When the Private Consumer Index is at 4 ye...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - September 24, 2019

Winning Strokes Domestic share markets extended previous session's rally triggered by the government's move to slash corporate tax rates for domestic companies. The surprise decision by the government is seen boosting corporate earnings to some extent as the effective corporate tax rate after surcharge stills stands at 25.17%. Moreover, the move to reduce the tax to 15% for local companies incorporated after October 2019 is also being given too much importance by the media in the present context. However, the government giving MAT relief for those opting to continue paying surcharge and cess at 22% is a good move. MAT has been reduced to 15% from 18.5% for companies who continue to avail exemption and incentives. Though the Indian media is going ga ga on this step saying that it will bring significant positive implications for corporates' profitability, broader economy and market valuations, I feel with Peak Income Tax remaining ...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - June 24, 2019

Some Thoughts It has been long since I have posted in this blog for the free members. It is mostly due to lack of time following my preoccupation with a number of activities including too much involvement in the Elections. The electoral results bringing Feku Modi to power is a big blow for Indian economy. The Mafia Raj, which Feku Modi and Motu Shah resorted to, to win elections has been an unprecedented event in the annals of India. Never, have I seen a Political outfit spraying so much lies and bluffs towards the Gullible audience. Feku Modi's BJP assisted by the current questionable leadership of the RSS has taken the help of worst of worst unscrupulous things, to eke out a win for the Machiavelli Mafia couple, in the last Lok Sabha Elections. Indian economy has been on a disastrous path with NPA debt ballooning to more than Rs.13 lakh crore, from around Rs.4 lakh crore around 5 years back. Not only that the MSME sector which got severely affected due to Feku Modi...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - April 19, 2019

Some Thoughts and Stock Recommendations Since, the last few months I was more active in Facebook and Twitter, trying to give a fitting reply to Feku Modi and his deputy Amit Shah's bluffs and Jumlas. It is unfortunate that in a country of 125 crore the RSS could not find or support a better Prime Minister. It is a disgrace to see with my own eyes, RSS supporting a bluffmater and jumla spewing PM. Apart from that my other works like Content Writing, SEO and Bollywood assignments also kept me busy. However, today, I thought to pen a few lines here. It is a well known fact that the NDA government led by a former "Chaiwala" with some mysterious degrees and bank balance (would anyone believe that a 3 times CM and one time PM cannot buy house or a car and his mother has to travel in an auto rickshaw? Google to find the salary of the CM of Gujarat and PM of this country) has systematically destroyed Indian economy, as the debt increased by around 49% in the la...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - February 15, 2019

Yes Bank Ltd : Sell CMP: Rs.218.70 Targets: Rs.193/172 Photo : The Economic Times I have given a sell call on the shares of Yes Bank Ltd which is trading at Rs.218.70. Though recently the Reserve Bank of India hadn’t found any deviation in its reporting of bad loans (FY18 NPA divergence issue) and the growth in net interest income (the difference between interest income and expenses) was a healthy 41.2% aided by advances growth of over 42% and stability in interest margin at 3.3%; I find that there are still some issues which needs to be addressed before taking fresh exposures at the current market price Rationale : #Gross NPA for the Q3FY19 rose to 2.10% from 1.60% in September quarter and 1.72% in December quarter of last year. There was a significant deterioration in asset quality in the quarter under review, thanks to a large slippage on account of IL&FS. Of the total slippage of Rs.2,297 crore – around Rs.1,913 crore is believed to be on acco...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - February 06, 2019

Market Is Running Ahead of Fundamentals: Nifty Should Correct Below 9000 Photo : 123RF It is surprising that Indian markets are moving up, when we have a dismal financial situation, with unofficial employments report showing to be 45 years low and rural unemployment touching 18%. Besides due to lack of funds in the schemes like MNREGA, the rural economy has already taken a hit. Moreover, according to a report published in Deccan Herald, 15 December, '18, India’s foreign direct investments (FDI) growth has slowed to a minuscule 1.23% in 2018 from a high of 20.16% in 2014 when the BJP-led government took over at the Centre. This proves the fruitlessness of Narendra Modi's numerous foreign trips, with public funds. Besides, with abnormally low inflation of 2.18%, the growth of 7.2% looks like a manipulated figure. It is because it is always seen that growth is accompanied by inflation, as spending takes a major push. When there is already demand destruction, p...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - January 04, 2019

Market Mantra Buy the Shares of Indo Count Industries Ltd at the CMP of Rs.55.45 for short and medium-term targets of Rs.91/96/127/141. SL: Rs.56. It is likely to give decent returns over a period, as INR depreciation Vs USD is going to have a good effect on its balance sheet. The company makes, bed sheets, pillow covers, etc which are sold in the United States through retailers such as Wal-Mart and Bed Bath & Beyond. While the majority (65%) of Indo Count Industries Ltd’s business comes from retailers in the US, it also exports to 54 countries and has taken baby steps in selling products under its own brand -- a bold step for a company that was set up only in 1991 as a yarn maker and entered the home textile business in 2006. A strong US dollar has already the input costs for the US manufacturers -- this is likely to boost US imports in sectors such as textiles, steel, aluminium etc. However, Trump administration recently imposed strong Tariffs on steel and aluminum im...

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