SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

Worst appears to be over for steel makers for now Crystal Barretto, ET Bureau Feb 27, 2012 The worst appears to be over for Indian steel makers, at least in the short to medium term, as domestic steel prices have improved and raw material costs have come down. Moreover, the rise in the rupee has made coal imports that much cheaper. This means that steel manufacturers are likely to report an expansion in operating profit margins for this quarter. But this may be already factored into the current market price of steel stocks as the longer term outlook is not very encouraging. Domestic steel prices, as measured by the Indian Steel Price Index, are about 7% higher than the year ago period. This is an improvement of about 4% since the October-December 2011 quarter. Currently, the price of iron ore in the international market is $154/tonne, 3% higher that last year. Contract coking coal is at approximately $235/tonne, 4% higher than last year. For the first time in three quarters, the ri...

Flat steel prices shows sparks of revival in China  29 Feb, 2012 Day 2 of week 9 was eventful with a sudden burst of activity in the flat product market. There was all round improvement in price more as an attempt by the mills and trading circles to push for price hike and test its acceptability. The steel stocks even though at a high level in Chinese domestic market with very faint reduction after the Lunar Holidays. However mills have been flaunting their intention by hiking the prices by CNY 100-200 per tonne for March. An uncanny confidence is based on an anticipated hike in demand as the spring unfolds. Although none of the players are affirmative about this turn of fortunes given the misery over the last 6 months wherein market movements have defied all logic of demand. However a recent reduction in CRR by the PBOC on 18th February some positivism was on the cards. It would be of avid interest whether the coercive tantrums of the mills and traders will sustain or at least...

Market Mantra: The gates for a cut in the Interest Rate is cleared The road for the next step of the RBI to go for a 50 basis points cut in the interest rate in the next meeting is now almost cleared with the figures of GDP dipping to a dismal 6.1%, against and estimated 6.9%. In such circumstances, your focus should be on those sectors which will be a direct beneficiary of any cut in the interest rate: Banks, Real Estate/Construction, Auto and Steel/Cement counters. Therefore, use every dips to buy shares of good companies. Now the railway budget is near, therefore buy Kalindi Rail Nirman  Ltd at Rs.118--121, SL--Rs.117. T--Rs.131-145. Buy KSK Energy Ventures Ltd at Rs.70-71, T--Rs.84, SL--Rs.66. Since the energy sector is expected to do well buy good stocks in this sector, including Jai Balaji Industrires Ltd, which was again given a buy today at around Rs.39, and which touched Rs.40.35 intra-day.   Late afternoon call given to the Paid Group : buy Mini_Nifty at 5438, T-55...

Market Mantra: Bulls in full force above 5350 Morning Call to the Paid Groups : Buy Engineers India Ltd on a bounce around Rs,250, T--Rs.285. Exit if it break Rs.248 on the downside. The stock hit a high of Rs.268.50.  Afternoon call to the Paid Groups : Buy Sintex Industries Ltd at Rs.83, T--Rs.97, SL--Rs.77. The stock is now trading at Rs.84.50.  Afternoon call to the Paid Groups : Buy IFCI Ltd at around Rs.42-42.20, T--Rs.47, SL--Rs.39.30. Book some profits in HINDALCO Ltd at Rs.147 and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.145.  In MCX Alumiumum recommended yesterday at Rs.111, is now trading Rs.112.70. The metal is slowly inching towards it target of Rs.118--121. Now start Buying the stocks in these sectors : Banks, Metals, Power and Auto...Jai Balaji Industries Ltd whose NEW plant is expected to kick start from the 2nd week of April, 2012, has both the Steel and Power story. Therefore, without looking at the results just get into the counter without wasting time. In the s...

  The Crude Retreats and the US market closes flat NEW YORK (Reuters) - The benchmark S&P 500 closed at its highest level since mid-2008 on Monday, extending gains for a third session as oil prices retreated after a recent rally and data showed further improvement in the U.S. housing market. The S&P and the Nasdaq both eked out gains, while the Dow closed barely lower. An industry group reported that contracts for home resales hit a near two-year high in January, lifting the Dow Jones home construction index (:.DJUSHB) 1.50 percent, while the PHLX housing sector index (Nasdaq:^HGX - News) rose 1.19 percent. A drop of about 1 percent in the price of oil relieved concerns that high energy prices could hurt the still-fragile economic recovery. Brent crude ended at $124.17, down $1.30. "Anything above $120 to $130 is clearly the level at which the global economy is going to have a hard time growing at a pace that is consistent with a very robust rate of growth," said ...

Is the Government Indirectly saying, to enter the markets now??!! MUMBAI: The finance ministry is nudging state-owned banks to cut lending rates before March-end, though most lenders had initially taken a stand to review interest rates only next financial year. This has not been communicated in writing, but at a recent meeting, senior ministry officials asked bank chiefs to consider lowering interest rates. Even after the Reserve Bank of India cut banks' cash reserve ratio (CRR) in January, signalling a reversal in its monetary policy stance, bankers had said it would take a while for lending rates to soften. Since CRR is the slice of customer deposits that banks have to keep as cash with the RBI, a cut in the ratio following repeated rate hikes was perceived as the onset of a dovish monetary policy. But since no bank has lowered returns on deposits since the RBI action, their cost of fund continues to be high.

Copper sees the biggest shortage in 2 years: ICSG  NEW YORK: The physical copper markets saw the biggest shortage in 2 years in November 2011, thanks to increased imports to China, says the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) says. China is the biggest consumer of copper, accounting for almost 40% of global consumption. November shortage had widened to 119,000 tonnes, the highest since March 2010's 120,000 tonnes, Bloomberg reports an ICSG statistician. The shortage has however subsided over the course of the year. Jan-Nov 2011 saw a deficit of 382000 tonnes, over 15% lower than the 460,000 tonne deficit in 2010. China's net imports in October and November were 59% higher than during the same period in 2010. The metal has however has had a weak start to 2012 in terms of imports. Official data shows that Chinese copper imports had declined by 18% in January, which many believe was bound to happen given the high levels of imports during the last quarter of 2011. Analysts n...

Market Mantra Buy McNally Bharat Ltd at Rs.109-110, T--Rs.117. The stock should not break Rs.106 on the downside, on a closing basis and hence this is a golden change to invest.  Morning Nifty target of SELL at 5430, T--5380 to the Paid Members, has been achieved. I had asked all to exit IFCI Ltd and  Indian Bank Ltd today.   If you made profit by selling Nifty in the morning and now buy Nifty at 5370--5375 (Spot), T--5460, SL--5350. Buy HINDALCO Ltd at Rs.142.50, T--Rs.147, SL--Rs.139.50. Enter again all the Metal Counters: Steel, Aluminium (Rs.111, T-Rs.118 at MCX), Nickel, Gold, etc. On the other hand if anyone is having ABB Ltd and Sesa Goa Ltd, they should reduce their positions.

Oil may breach $150 a barrel on mounting Iran crisis MUMBAI: Oil, which touched $124 a barrel mark on Friday, appears set to touch a new record and breach the $150 mark on mounting Iran crisis. Analysts feel that the government is holding back from hiking fuel prices because of the ongoing elections and a steep hike is likely next month. The highest that crude price has gone was $147 a barrel recorded in June 2008. The Indian crude basket, which is pegged at $122 a barrel at present - its highest in the last nine months - is causing a daily loss of Rs 465 crore to oil companies on their sale of diesel, kerosene and cooking gas as retail prices have not been revised of late. "Oil has surpassed our forecast price and is now trading at $124 a barrel. It will continue moving north on account of mounting Iran crisis. According to IEA forecast, the world has spare capacity of 3.8 million barrels, of which Saudi Arabia's capacity of 1.8 million barrels is never tested so oil prices w...

ONGC Ltd: The Next Logical Target: Rs.310-312 Also, The markets should move up if the Government is doing Disinvestment of ONGC Ltd as it will reduce the Fiscal Deficit....!! The Auction is expected to be held on next WEDNESDAY The Chart and few days of trading clearly indicates the scrip could surge past Rs.300 in the coming days. A Group of Ministers headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is slated to meet very soon to consider selling 5% government stake in ONGC to raise about Rs.12,000 crore. The GoM is to meet to consider proposals relating to disinvestment in Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC). The GoM had earlier this month postponed a decision on the mode of selling stake in ONGC and it will meet again to consider 5% stake sale in the nation's biggest energy explorer to raise about Rs.12,000 crore. This may perhaps be the last (GoM meeting) before Budget (for 2012-13 is presented in Parliament on march 16). The government had in November last year put on hold a propos...

CRUDE OIL SURGES AHEAD Crude Oil prices after tapering a bit again started to surge Crude Oil Prices on February, Friday 24 2012: Brent Crude: $123.97 per barrel and Nymex Crude: $108.55 per barrel.

Market Mantra Market witnessed a highly volatile session yesterday. A range-bound move in the initial hours turned negative as the day progressed dragging down Nifty to 5460 levels during mid session. However, strong recovery later took it to a high of 5537. Again, F&O expiry during last hour dragged it down to 5480, finally giving a close at 5483 with a net loss of 22 points. Today the markets are seeing subdued trade in the first one and half hour. However, the trends are showing a fatigues of the BEARS. So, now the Bulls can again take charge of the things and  help Nifty move towards, 5560--5590 (Mini_Nifty) ranges. Therefore, Buy Mini_Nifty at 5494, T--5560--5590, SL--5460. The fact that the bears are not able to break 5460 (Nifty Futures) on the downside, gives much needed ammunition to the BULLS to take charge of the rally. These are dips which should be used for buying as the investors look for a good budget and possible cut of the interest rate in the next ...

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to rise to $127.50/barrel in 12 months SINGAPORE: Goldman Sachs said it expects Brent crude prices to rise to $127.50 a barrel over the next 12 months in order to restrain demand growth and keep it in line with available supplies. "We see the risks to our forecasts as skewed to the upside as world oil inventories have not been building despite Saudi Arabia pumping at its highest levels in 30 years and Libyan supplies returning to the market," analysts at the bank said in a Feb. 22 note. "This suggests that the increased supplies have been absorbed by the market and leaves the world in the unprecedented situation in which OPEC spare capacity is at a trough rather than at a peak just as the world economic recovery is getting on a more solid footing."

Buy State Bank of India Ltd at Rs,.2296, T--Rs.2400, SL--Rs.2178 State Bank of India rose 2.18% at Rs 2,307 at 10:10 IST on BSE after the bank's deputy managing director, R. Venkatachalam, denied media reports that the bank was close to offering a bailout loan package to Kingfisher Airlines. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex was up 11.72 points, or 0.06%, to 18,133.53. On BSE, 3.02 lakh shares were traded in the counter as against an average daily volume of 7.30 lakh shares in the past one quarter. The stock hit a high of Rs 2,321 and a low of Rs 2,255 so far during the day. The stock had hit a 52-week high of Rs 2,959.90 on 25 April 2011 and a 52-week low of Rs 1,576 on 20 December 2011. The stock had outperformed the market over the past one month until 22 February 2012, rising 16.88% compared with the Sensex's 8.40% rise. The scrip had also outperformed the market in past one quarter, gaining 33.70% as against 12.95% rise in the Sensex. The large-cap state-run bank has an equit...

RBI Continues with the Liquidity Management; to buy govt securities worth Rs 12,000 Cr The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today announced that it would purchase government securities worth Rs.12,000 crore through open market operations (OMOs) on Friday to ease the current liquidity crisis. "Consistent with the stance of monetary policy and based on the current assessment of prevailing and evolving liquidity conditions, RBI has decided to conduct Open Market Operations by purchasing government securities for an aggregate amount of Rs 12,000 crore on February 24, 2011, through a multi-security auction...," the apex bank said in a statement. The RBI will conduct the auction at its Mumbai office. The auction will be in four price methods -- government securities (G-Sec) maturing in 2017 with a coupon of 8.07%, G-Secs maturing in 2021 with a coupon rate of 8.79%, G-Secs maturing in 2027 with a 8.28% coupon rate and G-Secs maturing in 2032 with also a 8.28% coupon rate. "Ther...

Brent crude holds near $123 as Iran offsets slowdown concerns SINGAPORE: Brent crude held steady on Thursday, near a nine-month high of about $123, as supply worries from heightened tensions between Iran and the West offset concerns that a slowdown in the global economy could curb oil demand. U.N. inspectors sent to visit the country's nuclear installations declared their mission a failure, a setback likely to increase the risk of confrontation with the West. A larger-than-expected build in crude stockpiles in the United States following weak economic data from China and Europe depressed US crude futures. A larger-than-expected build in crude stockpiles in the United States following weak economic data from China and Europe depressed US crude futures. Brent crude for April delivery fell 5 cents to $122.85 by 0303 GMT after it rose on Wednesday for a third day to settle at $122.90, the highest in nine months. US crude futures for April was down 41 cents to $105.87 after settlin...

Market Mantra INTRA-DAY : One can buy ONGC Ltd at Rs.290, T--303-305,  SL--Rs.284. The news is that an empowered group of ministers may meet Monday to work out the price and timing of partial stake sale in the company via auction route. This news should take the scrip above Rs.310 in the next few trading sessions.  Buy McNally Bharat Ltd around the support price of Rs.106-107, T--Rs.120, SL--Rs.105. The company came out with superb set of numbers for the Q3FY12, on standalone basis.  

Market Mantra Buy Mini_Nifty Futures Ltd near the Support of 5520--5530, T--Rs.5560, SL-5500. The first phase of profit booking is probably over today. The RBI will continuously do the OMOs and  hence the liquidity is now not a major concern now. These kinds of dips should be used to buy good scrips. I hope you have enjoyed the call of Videocon Industries Ltd and have booked profits now buy Sintex Industries Ltd at Rs.92-93, SL--Rs.89, T--Rs.99.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT Videocon Industries Ltd moves to Rs.184, which was also recommended on yesterday morning mail to the Paid Groups.  On the other hand high beta stocks like Real Estates tanked as was suggested in the morning mail to the Paid Services.  Meanwhile Allied Digital Services Ltd completed the Buy Back of its shares. The Average price at which the Shares were bought back is Rs.54.21 per Equity Share. The total amount utilized in the Buy back of Equity Shares is approximately Rs 3.24 Crores (which excludes brokerage and taxes), which Is 11.60% of Offer Size. Key benchmark indices edged lower to reach their lowest closing level in more than a week as weakness in European stocks triggered profit booking on the domestic bourses after recent strong rally in share prices. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, and the 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty retracted after hitting 30-week highs at the onset of the trading session. The Sensex lost 283.36 points or 1.54%, off clo...

Jai Balaji Industries Ltd: Breaks Out!! The share price of Jai Balaji Industries Ltd fell from around Rs.580 plus to the current price of around Rs.48, which means in its current avatar it can give appreciation by 10 times its current price. Meanwhile, there are some positive developments in the company.

Allied Digital Services Ltd: Cloud Computing to Boost Financials From the charts it is seen that : A white candle has been formed at the end of a downtrend, suggesting strong bullish signal---buyers being unable to bring the close price above the open price suggest additional bullish strength. Moreover, the EMAs, also point towards a BULLISH formation on the Charts. Meanwhile, Allied Digital Services Ltd today informed the BSE that Buy Back of equity shares, which has been opened on April 25, 2011 in terms of SEBI Buy Back Regulations 1998 and amendments thereof is closed as per scheduled date on February 17, 2012. The closing date February 17, 2012 is (i.e. 12 months period from the date of the resolution passed by the Board at its meeting held on February 18, 2011). Probably we are just sitting on the Volcano of a Bull Run, by the scrip of Alllied Digital Services Ltd. The first target seems to be Rs.52 followed by Rs.63-77-84-96-100-147.

Budget 2012: Grant infrastructure status to hotel industry, says FICCI NEW DELHI: FICCI in its pre-budget memorandum has reiterated that in the list of Infrastructure projects, hotels may be added just like Railways and Airports. Under Section 10 (23G) of the Income Tax Act, Hotels were added to the infrastructure list so that interest received by Financial Institutions and banks for loans extended to hotels were tax exempted, however the said was discontinued from 1st April 2007. Grant of Infrastructure status to the Hotel industry will lead hotels to re invest their profits in the hospitality sector, channelize huge investment in the tourism sector and help bridge the shortfall of hotel rooms. There is a shortage of 1,50,000 rooms that calls for an investment of around Rs 60,000 crores in the coming 5 year period. This investment will lead to substantial employment generation which stood at nearly 49 million as per 2007-08 data. FICCI has also given the following recommendations f...

Market Mantra: Buy on dips Videocon Industries Ltd recommended to the Paid Groups in the morning Rs.175, T--Rs.210, SL---Rs.172 has already touched Rs.182. Those who have still not bought should buy the scrip. The tension in the Gulf region could give further buoyancy to the Crude Oil prices. We know off late Videocon Industries Ltd have inclined more towards, exploration of Oil and Gas apart from its consumer electronics business.  IRB Infrastructure Ltd recommended at Rs.174-175, in this blog touched Rs.210. Those who are holding should book some profits in the counter as the 1st target of Rs.207 has been reached.  Jai Balaji Industries Ltd hits buyer freeze in the mid afternoon trade.  There are some positives news in the company, please contact Paid Members to know that.........  HDIL recommended around Rs.57 and Rs.100 today touched Rs.127. Those who  have purchased the same on my recommendation in this blog should book some profits in the counter. My Rec...

FIIs' inflow into Indian stocks reach $4-billion for 2012 NEW DELHI: Adopting a bullish stance on India, overseas investors have pumped in about Rs 14,000 crore in the Indian equity market so far this month and the experts expect this positive trend to continue further. Since the beginning of 2012, the FIIs have infused a total of Rs 24,225 crore ($ 4 billion) into Indian stocks, after taking into account Rs 10,358 crore of net inflow during January 2012. During February 1-17, 2012, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were gross buyers of shares worth Rs 47,895 crore, while they sold equities amounting to Rs 34,028 crore, translating into a net investment of Rs 13,867 crore ($ 2.81 billion), as per data available with market regulator Sebi. Market analysts attributed strong FIIs inflow in the domestic market to the reversal in RBI's monetary policy and the subsequent impact of improved liquidity position. The foreign fund houses have also infused Rs 799 crore in the debt...

Would Jai Balaji Industries Ltd hit Buyer Freeze tomorrow: Probably!! Apart from the chart which is showing a Super Bullish Pattern, if we look at this stock from fundamental point of view, then also it looks good for the short term investment.  With the new plant coming up by the middle of April, 2012 and the steel prices showing some buoyancy, the scrip of Jai Balaji Industries Ltd could race past Rs.100 in the coming days according to my sources in Mumbai (Bombay) and Kolkata (Calcutta). Please grab the scrip before it is too late.

Domestic Steel Demand, Prices Rise Demand up 7.7% in January, the highest monthly growth in the current financial year Demand up 7.7 per cent in January, the highest monthly growth in the current financial year After the very forgettable three quarters of the current financial year when growth in demand for steel fell steadily, industry players may now have reason to smile — January figures point to an upswing in demand. According to data provided by the Joint Plant Committee (JPC), demand for steel in India grew 7.7 per cent in January on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis. Although sequentially, the demand growth has fallen, as in December the country posted 8.7 per cent growth. An analyst tracking the sector said, “There is definitely a revival in demand. December and January demand growth are the highest in the current financial year. The construction and infrastructure activity is only adding to the momentum.”During the first six months of the current financial year, d...

  Indian Steel Market 2012 India has indeed emerged in the global steel scenario. It has climbed to fourth spot for crude steel production in 2011 from 8th in a span of few years and is now moving to take second spot in net few years, second only to China. Indian growth story, although driven by inherent demand potential and sustained economic growth, has many other facets also, which are typical, as in any other part of the globe. On the demand side, Indian steel sector probably holds the top spot as the fundamentals for economic growth in India are better than most parts of the world. The potential in Indian steel sector growth is also reflected in scope of increase in usage from the large gap between the current per capita consumption vis a vis global average. Indian steel majors have taken lead in creating capacities 3-4 years ago and the result is visible now. Many more projects are underway and in next two to three years, they are likely to come on stream propelling India to...

US Steel News: December Steel Shipments Up 9.2% From November, Up 10.1% YTD WASHINGTON, DC–The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported today that for the month of December 2011, U.S. steel mills shipped 8,085,761 net tons, a 9.2 percent increase from the 7,404,828 net tons shipped in the previous month, November 2011, and a 13.7 percent increase from the 7,111,031 net tons shipped in December 2010.  Shipments for 2011 are 91,865,449 a 10.1 percent increase vs. 2010 full year shipments of 83,443,836. A month-to-month comparison of shipments shows the following changes: hot rolled sheet, up 15 percent, hot dipped galvanized sheets and strip, up 2 percent and cold rolled sheet, up 2 percent. AISI serves as the voice of the North American steel industry in the public policy arena and advances the case for steel in the marketplace as the preferred material of choice.  AISI also plays a lead role in the development and application of new steels and steelmaking technology...

Indian Hotel industry registers growth ~~ Written by SEI News Desk India’s hotel industry has shown robust growth in the fiscal (2011-2012) till November, notwithstanding the global and local economic slowdown, reporting continuous revenue-per-available-room (RevPAR) growth and the hotel inventory is expected to add another 61,000 rooms in the next three years, according to a survey. Based on the market survey by STR Global, the global market watch on hospitality industry, India's hotel industry showed overall revenue growth in 2011. "India, with a population over 1.2 billion and a growing economy, is allowing the Indian hotel market to prosper as hotel brands continue to expand their portfolio in the main cities and in the regions," says Elizabeth Randall, managing director for STR Global. "Our partnership with Horwath HTL-India will help us to better assist our existing and future clients across India and provide more market visibility for internation...

POWER FIRMS: NEXT LEVEL OF VALUE CREATION... Smart Profit Financial Consultancy After August 2010, the market is back to 18k level with strong upswing movement. Factoring the firm global cues with high inflow of investors in market, Sensex is expected to continue this upward rally. As per research, power sector is a lucrative stream to invest with a long term view. With Government of India working to boost power sector, Coal India will sign by March end agreements for supply of fuel to power projects commissioned up to December 2011. The Government has declared about increase in power tariff by 25-30%. This step of Government has provided huge relief to companies in power generation companies. According to sources, the price may again see a hike of 20-25% in long run. For the 12th plan, Power companies capital expenditure is expected to by around Rs.100, 000-120,000 crore in which about 52,000 km of transmission lines, 70 sub-stations and transmission capacity of 1,36,000 MVA. The...