Posts

Image
SumanSpeaks Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 2006 Macroeconomics · Policy Playbooks When India Flooded The System — And Why It Isn't Doing That Now Equity mutual fund inflows have fallen nearly 30% in two years with no crash in sight. In 2008, India answered a similar-looking wobble with the biggest liquidity bazooka in its history. In 2026, the RBI is doing something that looks almost the opposite — and the difference tells us what kind of problem each era was actually solving. 1 The Paradox Mint Flagged A recent Mint Money   article surfaced a genuinely odd data point. Monthly equity mutual fund inflows have fallen close to 30% over two years—from roughly ₹40,600 crore in June 2024 to about ₹28,973 crore in June 2026—even though markets haven't crashed. Returns have simply been flat. SIP contributions, tellingly, held firm at ₹31,781 crore in the same month, and June 2026 marked the 64th straight m...
Image
SumanSpeaks Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 2006 Banking · Policy & Reform Central Bank of India: The Reform Parliament Just Passed Matters More Than The Rating Upgrade We wrote about the sector-wide turnaround and Central Bank of India's CRISIL upgrade in our last PSU banking report. This one goes narrower and forward — into the bank itself, a piece of banking legislation Parliament quietly passed this session, and what actually moves its next quarter of earnings. 1 Picking Up Where We Left Off Our last piece — "PSU Banks: The Turnaround Is Real. So Is The Memory Of 2011" — made two arguments at once, deliberately. First, that India's public sector banks have delivered a genuine, verifiable turnaround: a record ₹1.98 lakh crore sector-wide profit in FY26, gross NPAs at a historic low of 1.93%, and Central Bank of India's own CRISIL upgrade to AA+/Stable on August 4. Second, that ...
Image
SumanSpeaks Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 2006 Banking · Public Sector Turnaround PSU Banks: The Turnaround Is Real. So Is The Memory Of 2011. What Central Bank of India Teaches! CRISIL just upgraded Central Bank of India to AA+/Stable. The sector behind it just posted a record ₹1.98 lakh crore profit. But this same bank once traded near ₹172 — and fell over 90% before the last NPA cycle was done with it. Both facts belong in the same story. We flagged Central Bank of India (₹31.07) earlier at SumanSpeaks, and the last few weeks have validated that call. But the more interesting story isn't one bank — it's the twelve-bank cohort it belongs to, and the valuation gap between what these banks now earn and what the market still pays for them. 1 The Trigger: Central Bank of India's Upgrade On August 4, 2026, CRISIL Ratings upgraded Central Bank of India's corporate credit rating to AA+/Stable...
Image
SumanSpeaks Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 2006 Business Model Transformation Don't Count The Megawatts At KPI Green — Count The Recurring Rupees Why a 130 MW solar addition at KPI Green Energy (₹303) matters less for capacity and more for the company's structural shift toward 85-90% IPP EBITDA margins. We covered the raw numbers behind this energisation — the Q1FY27 results, the BESPA storage tie-up, the leadership reshuffle — in our last KPI Green piece. This one goes somewhere we deliberately left out: what the EPC-to-IPP shift actually does to the company's earnings quality, and whether the market is pricing that shift correctly. 1 Two Businesses, One Balance Sheet KPI Green runs two very different businesses under one ticker. The EPC/CPP arm builds solar and hybrid plants for captive customers and books revenue once, on completion. The IPP arm builds plants it owns itself, sells the powe...
Image
SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 2006 Metals & Mining · Q1FY27 Results NMDC Steel: Profit Doubles, And Nagarnar Finally Starts Behaving Like A Steel Plant Net profit nearly doubled to ₹50.51 crore in Q1FY27, revenue crossed ₹3,661 crore, and the Nagarnar plant is behaving less like a commissioning project and more like a steel company. The Street chose to focus on one quarter's sequential dip. We'd rather look at the two-year arc. NMDC Steel Ltd (₹40.49 ) announced its Q1FY27 results on August 14. Standalone net profit came in at ₹50.51 crore, up 97.6% year-on-year from ₹25.56 crore, on revenue from operations of ₹3,661.84 crore, up 8.8% YoY. That is the headline, and it is a genuinely good one. A year ago, in Q1FY26, this was still a company climbing out of a ₹547 crore loss. Today it is posting its fourth consecutive profitable quarter. That trajectory matters more than any single quarter's w...

Popular posts from this blog