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Showing posts from February, 2019
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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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Yes Bank Ltd : Sell CMP:  Rs.218.70 Targets: Rs.193/172 Photo : The Economic Times I have given a sell call on the shares of Yes Bank Ltd which is trading at Rs.218.70. Though recently the Reserve Bank of India hadn’t found any deviation in its reporting of bad loans (FY18 NPA divergence issue) and the growth in net interest income (the difference between interest income and expenses) was a healthy 41.2% aided by advances growth of over 42% and stability in interest margin at 3.3%; I find that there are still some issues which needs to be addressed before taking fresh exposures at the current market price Rationale :   #Gross NPA for the Q3FY19 rose to 2.10% from 1.60% in September quarter and 1.72% in December quarter of last year. There was a significant deterioration in asset quality in the quarter under review, thanks to a large slippage on account of IL&FS. Of the total slippage of Rs.2,297 crore – around Rs.1,913 crore is believed to be on acco...
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Market Is Running Ahead of Fundamentals:   Nifty Should Correct Below 9000 Photo : 123RF It is surprising that Indian markets are moving up, when we have a dismal financial situation, with unofficial employments report showing to be 45 years low and rural unemployment touching 18%. Besides due to lack of funds in the schemes like MNREGA, the rural economy has already taken a hit.  Moreover, according to a report published in Deccan Herald, 15 December, '18, India’s foreign direct investments (FDI) growth has slowed to a minuscule 1.23% in 2018 from a high of 20.16% in 2014 when the BJP-led government took over at the Centre. This proves the fruitlessness of Narendra Modi's numerous foreign trips, with public funds. Besides, with abnormally low inflation of 2.18%, the growth of 7.2% looks like a manipulated figure. It is because it is always seen that growth is accompanied by inflation, as spending takes a major push. When there is already demand destruction, p...

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