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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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(i) Adani Enterprises Ltd could be bought at Rs.75, for a short term target of Rs.81. A healthy rise in its coal mining volumes in the first quarter of current fiscal 2016-17 pushed Adani Enterprises Ltd (AEL)'s standalone net profit up by 155.99%. Moreover, a rise in the price of crude oil is positive for all the energy trading companies. Adani Enterprises is a diversified company. The company is engaged in the business of coal trading, coal mining, renewable energy among others.
Less than a year after the coal industry was declared to be in terminal decline, the fossil fuel has staged its steepest price rally in over half a decade, making it one of the hottest major commodities. Cargo prices for Australian thermal coal from its Newcastle terminal, seen as the Asian benchmark, have soared over 35 percent since mid-June to more than one-year highs of almost $70 a tonne, pushed by surprise increases in Chinese imports.
(ii) Shrenuj & Co Ltd (Rs..208) could be accumulated only by high risk taking investors. The stock could give stupendous returns over a period. “In its apparent over-enthusiasm, ICICI Bank Limited approached the DRT-III [debt recovery tribunal] in India and sought an ‘ex-parte’ order for attaching all the inventories in India and placing restrictions on the international movement of the promoters,” Shreyas Doshi, chairman of Shrenuj, said. “This order was sought on frivolous grounds, far from the factual situation.” He stressed the bank’s action will not impact the company’s current operations but it does jeopardize the rights of the other 18 banks who form the lending consortium in India. “The company is in the process of seeking a legal opinion to challenge this ex-parte decision of DRT-III and take remedial measures,” Doshi said. The news followed Shrenuj’s decision to “rationalize” its workforce after annual revenue slumped 34 percent and the company swung to a loss. Shrenuj & Co Ltd is in the Jewelry business -- cutting and polishing of diamonds; trading in gold and platinum jewelry. 
(iii) This is August month and hence we could expect some positive news from the management of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.20). Stay put.
(iv) Reliance Defence and Engineers Ltd (Pipavav Defence) is slowly towards Rs.67. Once this mark is crossed we can look for targets of Rs.73. 
(v) Idea Cellular Ltd can be accumulated at Rs.94, with a SL of Rs.92, for a short term target of Rs.97. The telecom stocks will do well in future, as the number of major players gets reduced and indian mobile density increases. 

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