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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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Prakash  Industries Ltd: Banking on Steely Recovery
Prakash Industries (PIL) reported a 37.8% yoy top-line growth in Q2FY13; however, its operating margins declined mainly due to higher input costs.
Higher realizations drive top-line growth: PIL’s net sales grew by 37.8% yoy to Rs.631 Cr mainly on account of higher realization across product categories. Gross realization of structural steel/TMT and wire rods increased by 12.4% and 7.8% yoy to Rs.38,557/tonne and Rs.40,409/tonne, respectively.
High costs dented PIL’s profitability: Raw material costs increased by 44.9% yoy to Rs.444 Cr due to increase in prices of inputs. EBITDA margin slipped by 367 bps yoy to 13.1%; however, EBITDA increased by 7.7% yoy to Rs.83 Cr. Interest expenses stood at Rs.13 Cr compared to Rs.3 Cr in Q2FY12 and depreciation expenses also increased by 44.7% yoy to Rs.25.72 Cr. Hence, net profit decreased by 18.6% yoy to Rs.44.57  Cr in Q2FY13 as against Rs.54.81 in the same period previous year.  .
Outlook and valuation: PIL has slowed down its power expansion plans; nevertheless, we  can expect PIL’s EBITDA to witness a strong growth from FY14 once the benefits of increased capacities of sponge iron and power commence meaningful production. Hence, the scrip can be purchased at the CMP of Rs.49.95, for a short term target of Rs.61-62.

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