India–U.S. Trade Deal and Budget 2026: A Double Booster for Indian Equities.

~Sumon Mukhopadhyay.

---------

Synopsis: The historic trade deal announced on February 3, 2026—slashing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 18%—combined with the strategic 2026 Union Budget, has created a rare "twin-catalyst" for the Indian stock market. While the Budget provides the domestic infrastructure and fiscal framework, the U.S. deal provides the global market access needed to scale. This analysis examines how individual stocks across textiles, jewelry, tech, and energy are now uniquely positioned to benefit from this synergy.

-------------------------------------

Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.169.50): As a major player in the gold and diamond value chain, the reduction in U.S. tariffs to 18% is a direct tailwind. Beyond the deal, the company gains significantly from the inventory valuation of its massive retail stores, as any appreciation in gold prices directly pads the book value of its existing stock. The deal’s focus on easing "Gems & Jewellery" exports should improve volume and turnover for their refined products.

Latest Financials: For Q2 FY2025-26, the company reported a revenue jump of 161.7% YoY to ₹1,75,224 crore. Net profit rose 128% YoY to ₹104 crore. While quarterly revenue grew 33%, the net profit saw a massive sequential surge of over 1,000%, indicating a recovery in margins despite a lean preceding period.

Gokaldas Exports Ltd (Rs.694.05): This is perhaps the biggest "pure play" winner of the trade deal. With effective U.S. duties on textiles dropping by roughly 32%, Gokaldas is perfectly positioned to capture market share from regional competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh, who now face higher relative tariffs (20%). The budget’s continued support for the PLI scheme in man-made fibers further bolsters their expansion plans.

Latest Financials: In Q3 FY2026, the company posted a net profit of ₹15 crore, an 81% sequential recovery from Q2. Although YoY profit is down due to the 50% tariff hit earlier in 2025, the recent trade deal is expected to reverse this. Total income remained steady at ₹998 crore.

Quadrant Future Tek Ltd (Rs.293.80): Specializing in next-gen signaling under the KAVACH project, Quadrant is expected to gain massive orders due to the Budget's relentless focus on railway safety. Compared to Kernex Microsystems, Quadrant has shown more consistent profitability and superior return ratios. While Kernex has a larger legacy order book, Quadrant's specialization in rolling stock cables gives it a technical edge in new-age signaling tenders.

Latest Financials: Q2 FY2025-26 saw revenue of ₹36.85 crore. While the company faced a quarterly net loss of ₹15.89 crore due to high R&D and expansion costs, its revenue grew 17.7% sequentially, reflecting the pickup in order execution.

3i Infotech Ltd (Rs.15.15): The trade deal's emphasis on IT services provides a stable backdrop for mid-cap players like 3i Infotech. With the U.S. looking to diversify its digital supply chain, niche Indian IT firms may find easier entry into North American contracts. The budget’s focus on "Digital Public Infrastructure" also opens domestic doors for their SaaS-based transformation.

Latest Financials: The company reported a strong Q2 FY2025-26 with total income rising to ₹210.71 crore, a 9.7% sequential growth. PAT stood at ₹18.20 crore, a sharp recovery compared to a loss in the previous year.

Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Ltd (SW Solar, Rs.193.41): The energy clause of the trade deal—pivoting away from Russian oil—is complemented by the Budget's massive push for renewables. As India prioritizes solar under the PM Surya Ghar scheme, SW Solar’s expertise in large-scale EPC projects makes them a strategic beneficiary. The budget’s emphasis on green energy ensures a healthy domestic order book alongside their global footprint.

Latest Financials: For Q3 FY2026, the company reported revenue of ₹2,110.79 crore, up 14.5% YoY. It posted a Profit Before Tax of ₹69.74 crore, marking a major turnaround from the heavy losses sustained in early 2025.

Anant Raj Ltd (Rs.562.90): Anant Raj is a massive beneficiary of the Budget 2026 tax holiday until 2047 for foreign cloud firms. The trade deal’s focus on secure tech partnerships with the U.S. aligns with their data center pivot. By lowering the tax burden for hyperscalers who use Indian facilities, the government has essentially guaranteed high occupancy for Anant Raj’s data center parks.

Latest Financials: In Q3 FY2025-26, revenue jumped 21.4% YoY to ₹660.38 crore, while net profit surged 30.7% to ₹144.25 crore. With a net profit margin of 21.8%, it remains a disciplined player in the tech-park segment.

FCS Software Solutions Ltd (Rs.1.62): Small-cap IT players like FCS Software could see a "trickle-down" effect as U.S. firms seek cost-effective offshore partners in a friendlier regulatory environment. However, they must leverage the budget's incentives for "Startup India" to move up the value chain.

Latest Financials: The company faced a challenging Q2 FY2025-26 with revenue falling to ₹10.64 crore and a net loss of ₹1.24 crore as rising operational costs continue to pressure margins.

Jindal Drilling Ltd (Rs.460): The strategic shift from Russian oil to domestic and U.S.-supported exploration is a major driver. With the budget encouraging domestic production to reduce the import bill, demand for offshore drilling rigs is expected to stay robust.

Latest Financials: Q2FY2025-26 was exceptionally strong, with revenue growing 90% YoY to ₹347 crore. Net profit surged 284% YoY to ₹132.52 crore, driven by higher rig day-rates.

Troubled Assets: Shareholder Outlook Debock Industries Ltd (Rs.1.34), MEP Infrastructure Developers Ltd (Rs.1.34), and J P Associates Ltd (Rs.3.11): 

Developments here are tied to debt resolution rather than trade macro. J P Associates remains in insolvency proceedings; any value hinges on asset sales. MEP Infrastructure requires settlement of arbitration claims for a liquidity boost. Debock Industries remains highly speculative with weak fundamental visibility.