Markets in Motion: Headlines Roar, Fundamentals Whisper
~Sumon Mukhopadhyay.
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Let’s separate signal from static.
Reliance Power Ltd (₹31.89) — Regulatory Thunder, Renewable Anchor; Headlines Sneezed, Fundamentals Still Breathing:
Reliance Power faced sharp selling pressure after its January 14, 2026 disclosure that SEBI initiated a forensic audit examining alleged violations of the SEBI Act, 1992, SCRA 1956, and the Companies Act, 2013. The stock slid to an intraday low of ₹30.57 on the BSE — a 52-week trough — before bargain hunters stepped in, stabilising prices around the ₹31–₹32 zone in subsequent sessions. Peak reaction days reflected declines of roughly 3–8%, typical of headline-driven shocks rather than structural damage.
Headlines generate volatility, not instant fundamental erosion. Any material financial impact will crystallise only once audit findings and regulatory clarity emerge. Operational momentum, meanwhile, remains visibly intact.
A major anchor continues to be the company’s renewable scale-up. Wholly-owned subsidiary Reliance NU Energies secured the largest allocation — 750 MW of solar paired with 3,000 MWh of battery storage — in SJVN’s landmark 1,500 MW / 6,000 MWh FDRE tender (Letter of Award, November 2025, tariff approximately ₹6.74 per unit). This single win represents 50% of the entire tender capacity, materially strengthening execution visibility and reinforcing leadership in hybrid renewables. Cumulatively, recent awards lift the group’s renewable pipeline beyond 4 GWp of solar and over 6.5 GWh of battery energy storage (BESS).
International diversification is also accelerating. Reliance Power has entered a strategic partnership with Bhutan’s Druk Holding & Investments (DHI) covering a 500 MW solar project (largest Indian private solar investment in Bhutan) and a 770 MW hydropower project, positioning the company inside long-term clean energy export corridors.
On the conventional power side, the company is selectively pursuing global opportunities. Management has indicated plans for a 1,500 MW overseas gas-based power project, with bids already submitted across Kuwait, UAE, and Malaysia. Importantly, Reliance Power already holds 1,500 MW of gas-power equipment inventory, potentially compressing project execution timelines versus typical multi-year delivery cycles. Parallelly, EPC tendering has commenced under global competitive bidding standards, while discussions are ongoing for long-tenor, cost-efficient project financing.
The broader clean-energy pipeline continues to deepen with over 2.5 GWp of additional utility-scale solar projects and more than 2.5 GWh of incremental BESS under development, alongside potential asset monetisation value estimated near ₹2,000 crore over the medium term.
International diversification through renewables in Bhutan and selective overseas gas exposure steadily broadens the earnings base beyond legacy thermal assets.
The market sneezed hard; the core did not collapse. For patient capital, the story remains anchored in multi-year contracted visibility, diversified geography, and alignment with the energy transition. 🤧 → 📈
Swan Energy Ltd (Rs.433.85) — Steady Hands, No Drama:
Swan Energy traded calmly in recent sessions, hovering broadly in the ₹421–₹450 range, reflecting orderly accumulation rather than speculative enthusiasm. Price behaviour suggests institutional comfort with valuations as the company executes across its diversified portfolio spanning real estate, textiles, energy, and shipbuilding.
There is no dramatic near-term catalyst — and that is precisely the appeal. Disciplined capital allocation, stable leasing income from commercial assets, and the gradual revival of shipyard and LNG initiatives provide predictability rather than fireworks. In turbulent markets, quiet compounding often outruns noisy momentum.
The tortoise still knows the route. 🐢
Rajesh Exports Ltd (Rs.173.32) — Gold’s Glow Lifts the Ledger:
Rajesh Exports has benefited from sustained firmness in global bullion prices, with the stock oscillating in the ₹165–₹190 zone during recent sessions and occasionally moving sharply on positive gold sentiment. Elevated gold prices mechanically revalue inventory and retail assets, strengthening balance-sheet optics and working-capital efficiency.
Refining margins remain the operational backbone. High recovery yields, disciplined throughput, and stable processing spreads help cushion jewellery demand cycles and preserve profitability even during volume fluctuations. As long as bullion remains structurally firm, both asset valuation uplift and processing economics continue to work in the company’s favour.
Beyond precious metals, the company is pursuing strategic diversification into advanced manufacturing. Rajesh Exports has committed to setting up a 5 GWh lithium-ion battery cell manufacturing facility in Karnataka under the Government of India’s Advanced Chemistry Cell PLI scheme through its subsidiary ACC Energy Storage. While project execution is underway, commercial production has not yet been publicly confirmed, making this a medium-term optionality rather than a near-term earnings driver.
Additionally, the group has proposed a major entry into electronics manufacturing with a planned ₹24,000 crore investment in an AMOLED display fabrication facility, positioning itself to participate in India’s emerging semiconductor and display ecosystem. This remains a large-scale development project, with timelines linked to regulatory approvals, infrastructure readiness, and capital deployment.
When gold gleams and industrial ambition matures patiently, refiners polish both margins and future optionality. ✨
SEPC Ltd (Rs.8.88) — Order Book Muscle, Execution Gearshift:
SEPC’s consolidated order pipeline stands robust at approximately ₹5,000 crore+, driven by a series of meaningful wins — including the ₹230 crore MOIL turnkey mining shaft contract (December 2025), the ₹269.69 crore Ajmer–Chanderiya railway subcontract, and earlier mining, rail, and industrial EPC awards. This expanded backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and enhances operating leverage as execution scales.
Balance-sheet leverage remains contained, with consolidated debt estimated around ₹350–₹370 crore, leaving reasonable headroom for working-capital absorption as billing momentum improves. The stock consolidated largely in the ₹8–₹11 range through much of 2025 into early 2026 amid broader small-cap caution. Selective volume spikes on order announcements suggest gradual accumulation rather than speculative excess.
If execution converts backlog into steady cash flows while receivables remain disciplined, scope for re-rating opens. In EPC language: the engine is warm, the clutch engaged smoothly — now comes controlled acceleration. 🚜
Closing Thought:
The discerning investor learns to prefer the second — and usually sleeps better for it. 📊.
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