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Why the US Tariff for India Will In All Probability Fall Below 20%.

— Energy Diplomacy, Agri Concessions, and a Trump-Modi Trade Reset.

~Sumon Mukhopadhyay.

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It is now highly probable that US tariffs on Indian exports will fall below 20%, potentially settling in the 15–16% range — a dramatic drop from the punitive 50% imposed earlier this year.

This emerging shift, reported by Mint, Reuters, Bloomberg, and CNBC, is not a random policy U-turn. It is a calibrated blend of energy diplomacy, reciprocal trade gestures, and strategic repositioning in a world where economic alignments are increasingly shaped by geopolitics rather than simple trade arithmetic.

🔹Energy Diplomacy: India’s Oil Pivot:

After months of quiet diplomacy, India has reportedly agreed to gradually reduce its dependence on Russian crude, which accounted for more than one-third of its total imports.

Following the October 21 phone call between Prime Minister Modi and President Donald Trump, sources cited by Bloomberg and Reuters confirm that the US is ready to lift the punitive 25% surcharge it had imposed over India’s continued Russian oil purchases.

This realignment fits squarely into Washington’s larger goal — isolating Russia’s war economy — while rewarding India for aligning with the West’s sanctions strategy.

In simple terms: less Russian oil, more tariff relief.

🔹 Agricultural Reciprocity: India’s Soft Concession:

India, in turn, has made its own quiet move — opening the door wider for US non-GMO corn and soymeal, key demands long pushed by Washington.

Reports suggest that India may raise its import quota beyond the current 0.5 million tonnes, even at a 15% import duty, to support its booming poultry, dairy, and ethanol industries.

This concession sweetens the atmosphere for the US to reciprocate by cutting tariffs on Indian textiles, pharma, auto parts, and jewelry — sectors that have been bleeding since the tariff escalation.

It’s a classic “you open your market, I’ll open mine” deal — and it’s working.

🔹 Trump’s Strategic Calculus:

President Trump, who thrives on “big wins,” is reportedly eager to announce a trade breakthrough with India before year-end.

For Washington, this deal is more than tariffs — it’s about countering China, securing supply-chain partners, and reaffirming the Indo-Pacific alliance.

Trump publicly acknowledged Modi’s assurance of limiting Russian crude imports — a signal that both leaders want this wrapped up soon.

And the timing matters — the ASEAN Summit (October 26–28, Kuala Lumpur) is seen as the ideal stage for a joint announcement. Modi may attend virtually, but the message will be global: US-India ties are back on track.

🔹 Economic Logic: Tariff Cuts Make Sense:

Let’s face it — a 50% tariff was never sustainable.

From May to September 2025, Indian exports to the US fell 37.5%, dropping from $8.8 billion to $5.5 billion, according to Mint and Reuters.

With bilateral trade touching a record $132 billion in FY2025, both nations simply cannot afford such a chokehold.

A tariff reduction to below 20% will:

Revive Indian export competitiveness
Ease inflationary pressures for US consumers
Support American industries dependent on Indian inputs
And politically, allow both sides to claim victory.

Economic sense and political optics — a rare alignment.

🔹 Global Trade Optics & WTO Pressure:

A steep tariff regime on a democratic partner like India risks breaching WTO’s Most-Favoured-Nation principles.

In contrast, a sub-20% tariff brings the US in line with global trade norms, while also projecting it as a responsible power seeking balance rather than dominance.

It also sends a message to rivals:

“We’re tough with China (34% tariffs), competitive with Vietnam (46%), but fair with India (15–16%).”

That’s a powerful optic in today’s trade-torn world.

🔹 Built-In Review Clause: The Safety Valve:

The proposed deal includes a bi-annual review mechanism, allowing tariff and quota adjustments based on trade imbalances or geopolitical shifts.

This means both sides retain flexibility — the US can watch India’s energy alignment, and India can protect against future tariff shocks.

A pragmatic clause that transforms this deal from a political showpiece into a sustainable framework.

🔹 Why This Matters for India:

For Indian exporters, this deal is the much-needed oxygen they’ve been gasping for since August.

Sectors like textiles, pharma, jewelry, and engineering goods could see a 30–35% rebound in shipments within two quarters of implementation.

For policy analysts, the ASEAN summit and subsequent joint statement will be the decisive indicators.

For investors, export-driven scrips may see a near-term rally once confirmation drops.

But domestic agri players must stay alert — cheaper US corn and soymeal could shift input cost dynamics in poultry and dairy sectors.

In Summary — The 15% Reality:

All indicators now point in one direction: the US-India tariff war is cooling fast.

A rate in the 15–16% range is not just plausible — it is politically, strategically, and economically inevitable.

This trade thaw will:

Cement India’s place in the US-led supply-chain network
Reward New Delhi’s nuanced energy diplomacy
And finally end a tariff standoff that served nobody’s interest

If announced during the ASEAN Summit, this will mark the most significant trade reset between the two democracies in a decade.

Sources & References:

Reuters – “India, US nearing trade deal that would slash tariffs on Indian exports to 15–16%” (Oct 22, 2025).
Bloomberg – “US may cut India tariff rate to 15–16% in new trade deal” (Oct 22, 2025).
India Today – “US likely to cut tariffs on Indian imports to 15–16%: Report” (Oct 22, 2025).
Mint – “India–US tariff reduction likely after energy realignment, agricultural access” (Oct 22, 2025).
Reuters – “Indian refiners review Russian oil contracts after US sanctions” (Oct 23, 2025).
Economic Times – “Tariffs on Indian exports to US may drop to 15–16% upon trade deal” (Oct 22, 2025).

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