Vodafone Idea Ltd. - H1FY26 Performance & AGR Relief Analysis.
Executive Summary:
Vodafone Idea Ltd. (Vi) demonstrated a decisive operational turnaround in H1 FY26, marked by significantly moderating subscriber losses, robust ARPU growth, and a path to narrowing financial losses.
This internal momentum was supercharged on October 27, 2025, by a landmark Supreme Court ruling that permits the government to "reconsider and reconcile" ₹5,606 crore of AGR dues. The court explicitly cited the "change in circumstances," including the government's 49% equity stake and the need to safeguard 20 crore consumers, as the rationale for its decision.
This ruling dramatically improves Vi's solvency prospects. While immense challenges remain, including a massive debt load and urgent funding needs, Vi's trajectory has shifted from pure survival to a plausible recovery.
Company Background:
Vodafone Idea Ltd., a joint venture between Vodafone Group and the Aditya Birla Group, is India's third-largest telecom operator. The Indian government now holds a 49% stake following past debt conversions, a fact that became central to the recent Supreme Court case and underlines its strategic importance in maintaining a competitive market structure.
H1 FY26 Operational & Financial Performance:
The first half of the fiscal year showcased Vi's most consistent operational performance since its merger.
Q1FY26 (April-June 2025): A Strong Start:
Q1 set a positive tone, featuring the lowest subscriber decline since the merger and strong revenue growth.
Financial Highlights:
- Revenue grew 4.9% YoY to ₹11,022 crore
- EBITDA surged 9.7% to ₹4,612 crore
- EBITDA margins improved to 41.8%
- Net loss narrowed to ₹6,608 crore
Operational Highlights:
- ARPU jumped 15% YoY to ₹177
- Company added ~4,800 4G towers
- 4G population coverage expanded to 84.1%
- Subscriber losses slowed to just 0.5 million for the quarter
Q1 FY26 Key Metrics:
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 11,022 | +4.9% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 4,612 | +9.7% |
| EBITDA Margin | 41.8% | +180 bps |
| Net Loss (₹ Cr) | 6,608 | +2.74% |
| ARPU (₹) | 177 | +15% |
Q2FY26 (July-September 2025): Building Momentum:
Q2 built on this foundation, with the most encouraging subscriber trend in nearly two years.
Financial Highlights:
- Revenue remained stable at ₹10,932 crore (up 1.8% YoY)
- Net loss narrowed significantly by 17.88% YoY to ₹7,176 crore
Operational Highlights:
- Net addition of 20,000 active subscribers in September - the first gain in 21 months
- 4G subscriber additions remained positive (+300,000 in September)
Q2 FY26 Key Metrics:
| Metric | Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 10,932 | +1.8% |
| Net Loss (₹ Cr) | 7,176 | -17.88% |
| ARPU (₹) | 156 | Up |
The AGR Catalyst: Supreme Court Ruling of October 27, 2025:
The overarching burden on Vi has been its Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues, a major component of its ~₹1.96 trillion total debt.
The October 27, 2025, Supreme Court ruling was a pivotal event. A bench comprising Chief Justice B R Gavai and Justice K Vinod Chandran delivered the order on a writ petition filed by Vi challenging fresh AGR demands from the DoT.
Key Legal and Procedural Insights from the Ruling:
- The Core Decision: The Court permitted the Centre to "reconsider and reconcile" ₹5,606 crore for FY 2016-17.
- The Government's Stance: Solicitor General Tushar Mehta, representing the Centre, informed the court of the "change in circumstances," specifically the government acquiring 49% equity and that "around 20 crore consumers depend on its services."
- The Court's Rationale: The bench observed that the issue "falls within the policy domain of the government." The order stated, "Taking into consideration the status of the case now... we see no issue in the Union reconsidering the issue and taking appropriate steps."
- Company Response: Vi hailed it as a "positive development" in a BSE filing, stating, "We look forward to working closely with the Department of Telecommunications to resolve this matter in the interests of our nearly 200 million subscribers."
Stock Performance & Analyst Outlook:
The market reacted strongly to the AGR news. As per PTI:
- Stock climbed 3.85% to settle at ₹9.99 on the BSE
- Jumped 3.63% to ₹9.97 on the NSE
- During the day, it surged 9.87% to an intraday high of ₹10.57
Analysts have responded with cautious optimism:
- Motilal Oswal: Upgraded to 'Neutral' (Target: ₹10), citing reduced debt risk
- Nomura: Maintained 'Buy' (Target: ₹14), highlighting potential for fundamental rerating
- Citi: Labeled a "High-Risk Buy," contingent on successful equity dilution post-relief
Is a ₹18-20 Share Price Target Feasible?
From the current price of ~₹10, reaching ₹18-20 requires an 80-100% upside. This is a highly ambitious but plausible scenario dependent on a specific sequence of events:
The Bull Case (Path to ₹20):
- Imminent AGR relief announced in Q3/Q4 FY26
- This triggers the promised ₹25,000 crore in bank funding
- Capex is deployed effectively for 5G rollout
- Industry-wide tariff hikes push ARPU toward ₹200+
- Vi begins to consistently gain, not just retain, customers
The Bear Case (Reality Check):
- Delays or insufficient government relief despite the SC ruling
- Inability to secure funding despite relief
- Execution missteps in 5G or intensified competition
- Further equity dilution at lower valuations
Conclusion:
H1 FY26 represents a definitive inflection point for Vodafone Idea. The company is no longer in a purely defensive posture; it is demonstrating operational improvements that, when combined with the transformative potential of AGR relief, create a credible recovery narrative.
The Supreme Court's recognition of the government's unique position as both regulator and 49% shareholder provides a powerful legal and policy foundation for a rescue package.
The path to a ₹18-20 share price is narrow and fraught with risk, but for the first time in years, it is visible. All eyes are now on the government's next move, which will determine whether this momentum can be converted into sustained viability.
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