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Telecom 2025: From Towers to Turnarounds

Judicial restraint, indigenous tech, and strategic borrowing—India’s telecom sector isn’t just surviving, it’s recalibrating.

~Sumon Mukhopadhyay 

-----------------------------------------------

India’s telecom sector is entering a high-growth phase, with 5G expansion, indigenous tech stacks, and judicial reliefs reshaping its financial and strategic landscape. 

MTNL (Rs.42.31) gains fresh momentum via borrowing autonomy, while Indus Towers—formerly Bharti Infratel—stands to benefit directly from Vodafone Idea’s AGR reprieve.

  • 5G Reach: Now available in almost every district, marking a leap from patchy 2G coverage just five years ago.
  • Subscriber Base: Over 1.2 billion mobile users, with 974 million internet users, positioning India as a global telecom powerhouse.
  • GDP Contribution Forecast: Telecom expected to contribute 20% of India’s GDP within the next decade.
  • Made-in-India 4G Stack: India joins an elite group of five nations with full-stack telecom capability.

MTNL: Fresh Positives Beyond Legacy Mandates:

  • ₹35,000 Crore Borrowing Proposal: Scheduled for approval at the October 31 AGM, signaling financial autonomy and potential restructuring.
  • Asset Monetization Plan: ₹16,000 crore worth of real estate and infrastructure assets approved earlier this year.
  • Investor Sentiment: Stock surged to ₹57.21 in February and remains under watch for AGM-driven breakout.

Indus Towers: Direct Beneficiary of Vodafone AGR Relief:

  • Background: Indus Towers, formerly Bharti Infratel, is India’s largest telecom tower company and a key vendor for Vodafone Idea.
  • Dividend Unlock: Supreme Court’s AGR ruling allows reassessment of Vodafone dues, enabling Indus to consider dividend payouts again.
  • Risk Reduction: Vodafone’s survival prospects improve, stabilizing Indus’s receivables and long-term contracts.
  • Valuation Upside: Analysts expect a re-rating of Indus Towers as Vodafone’s financial stress eases.

Comparative Table: MTNL’s Strategic Evolution:

Factor Feb 2025 Oct 2025
Asset Monetization ₹16,000 crore approved Still active
Borrowing Proposal None ₹35,000 crore proposed at AGM
Stock Movement ₹57.21 (Feb high) Watch for AGM-driven breakout
Policy Support Budget-linked AGM-driven financial autonomy

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