Global Market Pulse
Indian Markets To Maintain Bullish Momentum Amid Policy Boosts & Geopolitical Relief...
Cues from broader Asian markets remain mixed —
- Nikkei is slightly in the green, buoyed by tech stocks,
- while Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are trading with a negative bias amid China’s sluggish industrial data.
Meanwhile, the Australian ASX 200 is holding steady, supported by gains in the mining and banking sectors, reflecting resilience in commodity-linked stocks.
-----------------------------------------
Buoyant foreign institutional inflows (FII), improved risk appetite, and strong sectoral performances helped Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty notch impressive gains, last week.
FIIs net bought securites worth Rs.1,504.93 crore, while DIIs sold equities of value Rs.765.82 crore.
📊 Market Wrap – June 27, 2025:
- Sensex closed at 84,058.90, up +303.03 points (0.36%).
- Nifty 50 settled at 25,637.80, gaining +88.80 points (0.35%).
- BSE Mid-Cap Index rose 0.38%; Small-Cap Index advanced 0.54%.
- Market Breadth: Strong, with 2,251 advancing stocks vs 1,760 declines on BSE.
- India VIX declined by 1.60% to 12.39, indicating low volatility.
- Rupee strengthened to 85.49/USD.
- Gold Futures dropped 1.30% to ₹95,821.
- Brent Crude gained 0.81% to $68.28
🔑 Key Drivers:
- Israel-Iran truce, easing global tensions.
- US-India mini trade deal optimism.
- RBI's 50 bps rate cut and 100 bps CRR reduction.
- Strong performance by Adani Enterprises (+2.41%), ICICI Bank (+1.56%), Reliance Industries (+1.39%).
📈 Technical Outlook:
🔹 Nifty 50:
- Close: 25,637.80.
- Trend: Bullish.
- Support: 25,500 (immediate), 24,900–24,700 (deeper base).
- Resistance: 25,800 (near term), 26,000 (breakout level).
- Indicators: RSI at 72+ – overbought territory; all major MAs signaling Buy
- Outlook: Momentum remains strong. However, the overbought RSI and bearish divergence flagged by traders on social platforms suggest caution. A clean breakout above 25,800 may lead to 26,000, while dips below 25,500 could test deeper supports.
🔹 Bank Nifty
- Close: ~57,443 (record high).
- Support: 57,000 (firm), followed by 56,800 and 55,400.
- Resistance: 57,700 (immediate), 58,500 (next target).
- Indicators: Overbought signals from RSI and Stochastics; bearish divergence on daily/4H charts.
- Outlook: The index is buoyed by the RBI’s easing measures and strong fundamentals in banking. However, overbought signals and a possible bearish divergence hint at a correction if 57,000 is breached. A sustained move above 57,700 could unlock further gains.
📡 Vodafone Idea Ltd (VIL): High Risk, High Reward?
Close: ₹7.55 | 4-day rally: +15%
VIL remains a market enigma. Once considered a sinking ship, the telecom giant is now showing signs of a turnaround. Backed by fundraising optimism, strategic collaborations, and potential government relief, the stock has surged. Veteran investor Mark Mobius’ bullish commentary has added fuel to this recovery narrative.
📌 Key Highlights:
- Fundraising: ₹18,000 crore FPO done; ₹25,000 crore loan talks; ₹1,980 crore preferential issue underway
- Government Relief: ₹84,000 crore dues (including ₹30,000 crore AGR) may be restructured. The government already holds a 48.99% stake
- Strategic Ties: AST SpaceMobile (satellite) & HCLSoftware (AI optimization)
- 5G Rollout: Expected in Q4 FY2025
🔍 Technical & Analyst Views:
- Support: ₹7.30–7.35.
- Resistance: ₹8.50–₹8.80; breakout target ₹12 (bull case ₹24–₹28).
- Mobius View: Long-term bullish; sees VIL playing a key role in India’s digital story.
- Citi: “High-risk buy” with a ₹12 target.
- JM Financial: Bull case of ₹28 if dues are reduced.
- Geojit: Downgraded to ₹8.6 from ₹17.
⚠ Risks:
High debt, execution issues, and fierce competition from Reliance Jio and Airtel. A drop below ₹7.30 could trigger a pullback.
🏗 Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (JAL): Hope Amid Insolvency?
Status: Under IBC, with over ₹57,000 crore debt.
Once a construction major, JAL (₹3.23) now lies mired in insolvency proceedings. Two questions which are hovering in the mids of retail investors:
🧨Will the NDA Government come to its rescue like in the case of the Aditya Birla group company: Vodafone Idea Ltd?
🧨Also, recent bidding interest has sparked speculative fervor. So, will this give a speculative push to the share price?
📰 Latest Updates:
- Bidders: Adani Group, JSW, and Vedanta eyeing cement & real estate assets.
- NCLT Process: Ongoing; no confirmed deal yet.
- Equity Risk: Insolvency prioritizes creditors. Existing shareholders face high delisting/dilution risk unless an equity-positive resolution emerges.
⚠ Investor Note:
While takeover buzz could create interim price pops, equity gains remain speculative at best. Caution advised.
Disclaimer: Some of my clients/friends might be holding the shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd and J P Associates Ltd in their demat account.
🌐 Global Cues:
🔹 US Markets – June 27, 2025
- Dow Jones: +0.94%
- Nasdaq: +0.97% (led by NVIDIA & Micron)
- S&P 500: +0.8%, near record highs
Key Drivers:
- Middle East truce.
- Fed rate cut hopes.
- Q1 GDP contraction (-0.5%) raises expectations for further easing.
- Jobless Claims: Down by 10,000, but job market outlook remains cautious
- Tariff Watch: Markets bracing for July 8 “liberation day” tariffs; EU deal hopes by July 9.
🔹 Europe & China
- Europe: Markets rally on upbeat earnings (Nike, Adidas, JD Sports) and EU-US tariff resolution hopes
- China:
- US-China pact lifts sentiment
- Industrial Profits: Down 9.1% YoY (Jan–May)
- Emissions: Fell 1.6% YoY – a first structural decline due to renewables, not lockdowns
🏦 India Policy Radar: Key Economic Updates: Legacy Issues:
✅ RBI Monetary Policy:
- Repo rate: Cut by 50 bps.
- CRR: Cut by 100 bps.
- Impact: Boost to credit demand, banking stocks surge.
✅ Budget 2025–26:
- Revised tax slabs:
- 0% for income up to ₹4 lakh
- 30% above ₹24 lakh
- Infra Push: ₹1.5 lakh crore
- Healthcare & AI Upskilling: Key focus areas
✅ Regulatory Reforms:
- Green Trade Compliance: India aligns with EU standards (packaging, livestock, deforestation)
- Unified Pension Scheme: Replaces NPS for post-2004 employees with fixed benefits
- Telecom Relief: Focused on VIL’s Rs 84,000 crore dues
- Trade: US-India mini deal expected by September 2025
📌 Final Word:
The Indian equity landscape is buzzing with optimism, underpinned by strong FII flows, accommodative monetary policy, and geopolitical calm. Yet, technical indicators warn of short-term overheating, especially in benchmark indices. Globally, markets are buoyant but walking a tightrope amid economic contraction, tariff tensions, and central bank signals.
📢 Investor Advisory
This analysis is for informational purposes only. Markets are inherently risky. Do your due diligence or consult a financial advisor before investing.
Stay tuned for daily updates, global cues, and deep-dives on companies to watch. 🌐
.jpeg)
Comments