The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...

 Market Mantra

In the afternoon trade, the domestic equity benchmark indices reached new intraday highs. The Nifty is currently trading at 19163, up roughly 190.90 points and is hovering around the 19,150 levels. European markets rose, while most Asian markets traded in the green. In this bull market most stocks are likely to rise up. Photo: Swaraja.com

The Nifty and the Sensex hit all-time highs in afternoon trade at 19,160.10 and 64,593.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nifty_Bank Index also registered its fresh record high at 44,758.45. 

In an intersting development according to RBI's latest Financial Stability Report, the asset quality of the MSME portfolio of all SCBs showed improvement during FY23 with the gross NPA ratio nosediving from 9.3% in March 2022 to 6.8% in March 2023. At this juncture you need to be patient, pick up good beaten down stocks during market dips and hold on to your positions with appropriate stop losses.

#Today most of the stocks in the Adani pack came under pressure around 3.20% of the equity of Adani Transmission Ltd (Rs.769) changed hands on a block trade in Friday morning at an average price of Rs.795 apiece, taking the total value of the transaction to Rs.3,103 crore, according to exchange data published by CNBC TV18 website.

In another Development, last month, Mahen Kumar Seeruttun, the minister for Financial Services and Good Governance in the Mauritian government, said a company from overseas needs to carry out its core income-generating activities in, or from, Mauritius, as required under the Income Tax Act. Rejecting the claims made by Hindenburg Research, Mauritian Parliamentarian, called the claims of the presence of Shell companies of the Adani Group in Mauritius, to be “false and baseless". The short-seller, Hindenburg in its report, alleged the presence of Adani Group's shell companies in Mauritius, UAE, and the Caribbean islands.

Post Hindenburg torpedoes, the Adani Transmission Ltd's shares are trading at over 80% discount from their 52-week high of Rs.4,236.75. This implies that the stock must surge 5x - times from the CMP to achieve this level. Today's deal was executed at ~Rs.795 which means the share should close above this price. You need to accumulate during market declines.

#The stock of PC Jewelers Ltd (Rs.26.35) today rose to Rs.26.70. The festival season has kicked off with Bakri Eid, and is likely to continue till Christmas, followed by marriage season. You need to buy the shares of Jewellery and Apparel companies and hold at least till Deepawali. 

#The shares of NDTV Ltd (Rs.227.60) today moved to Rs.333.95. It is now an Adani group company. Adni Group acquired Pronnoy and Radhika Roys' stake in NDTV Ltd at the price of Rs.342.65 per share.

#The shares of Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd (Rs.271.25) is hovering around the price band of Rs.267 - 292. However, the ensuring festival demand is likely to push the scrip above Rs.300. You need to buy and keep holding. It is one of the top textile companies in India.

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