Image
SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...

Winning Strokes

The barometer index S&P BSE Sensex dropped 364.91 points or 0.67% to settle at 54,470.67 while the Nifty closed at 16,301.85 down 109.40 points or 0.67%. NIFTY Midcap was down 1.78%, while the NIFTY Smallcap was down 2.12%.

The good point is that Nifty recovered as the session progressed and hit the day's high of 16,403.70 in mid-afternoon trade. This gives some hope to the Bulls that for the time being selling is probably over in Indian bourses.

Meanwhile, as the report is being prepared, Dow Jones industrial average was trading at 32,378.37, down 521.00 points (1.58%). The US markets are reacting too much after that 75 bps rate increase even though the Fed Chair has said that there is less possibility of another 75 bps rate hike in the near future.

I feel the Nifty is likely to rebound tomorrow, overcoming too much (unnecessary) pessimism surrounding rate hike. 

Moreover, since the interest rate is still too low in both US and UK, the liquid money is bound to flow either in Real Estate or in Equities. Since, the real estate is in doldrums, the best option left at the moment is Stocks.

By the way the equities will rise as long as people continue to pump funds, whether there is inflation or no inflation. 

Another important feature to be remembered is that increase in repo rate doesn't automatically lead to monetary draught. If investors think that it is better to stay put in share market rather than getting palty 7/8% interest income in Bank/FIs, especially when the CPI inflation is around 6%, then no force in the world can stop stock markets from moving up. It is a myth that when interst rate rises, Equity market crashes.

The FIIs are soon to return to the Indian bourses as net buyers, as India still remains among the fastest growing economies of the world.

#Today, I had given a sell call on ABB Ltd neer Rs.2332/2337, for intraday targets below Rs2330. The target was achieved and the call closed.

#I have a festive offer: Those who have a portfolio size of Rs.50,000 (Fifty thousand only) can join my associate brokerage house and get my Premium Information Service and Guidance FREE. This offer is valid till Deepawali.

#Today, a buy call was initiated in the shares of Canara Bank Ltd (Rs.201.35) at Rs.202.50, for short term targets of Rs.237/241. The company came out with excellent Q4FY22 numbers. Also, the ace Rakhesh Jhunjhunwala holds stake in the bank. Photo: Sify.com

Many Brokerage Houses are bullish on both the RBL Bank Ltd (Rs.112) and Canara Bank.

#Today, the shares of Indowind Energy Ltd (Rs.16.55) hit the Buyer Freeze. With the crude oil above $100 per barrel, I'm expecting a hike in tariff in renewable energy. We can look forward for targets of Rs.29/31/37 in the coming days.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog