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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...

Winning Strokes

It seems the domestic bourses will ene the year in bullish tone. The BSE Sensex was seen at 58,347.35 up 553.03 points (+0.96%), While the Nifty is seen trading at17,384.30 up 180.35 points (+1.05%). The Bullishness is likely to continue in the indices, however the action will be seen mainly in the small and mid cap counters. Meanwhile, a report by Rahul Goel of Equity Master, spoke of the following:

"With our estimates showing that Indian stock markets could add wealth of almost Rs 200 trillion over the next decade."

"Because  for the first time ever…

Three forces are simultaneously converging to unleash a once in a generation wealth boom."

"And  while this revival  could positively impact every person in the country... YOU have the opportunity to turn this historic event into potentially millions of rupees by owning the companies at the heart of this revival."

His views also underpin, the bullish undertone of the domestic bourses.

πŸ’’ Dhanlaxmi Bank (Rs.14.75) - Hold with a SL at Rs.14.70. The next quarter results are expected to be good due to cutting down of provisions for bad loans.

πŸ’’ JBF Industries Ltd (Rs.20.70) -- The ARC has taken symbolic possession of the company. Hence, the company has nothing to worry about the debt. 

The ARC will pay around Rs.840 crore and is currently assisting in management (The old management is still in control of the affairs), till it is able to either sell it to a large conglomerate or effect a turnaround. 

The benefits, will however go to the ARC, till the whole loan amount is recovered. But this means the company is getting DEBT FREE, isn't it?

Hence, we can only expect positive from the company on the fundamental front, especially considering the robustness of the September, 2021 quarter results. 

By the way, the polyester fabric market is doing fine post easing of the lockdown restrictions, imposed due to Covid-19 Pandemic. 

Now, the point is when the debt is taken of care by an ARC and the lenders are set to give a 59% hair cut on the loans, then the deal becomes like Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.10.20), which has been hitting UCs since some time. The plants are operating at 70% of the Peak Capacity. 

We therefore,  don't need a Mukhesh Ambani, story to paddle the price of the scrip forward. Buy, the share in market dips for targets above Rs.100 (one hundred), as I'm expecting a vertical recovery from here. 

πŸ’’The share of BF Utilities Ltd (Rs.390) is consolidating around the current ranges, before the next round of upmove. When many stocks are making new 52 - week highs, we can also expect it to move above Rs.1000 (one thousand) in the coming months. 

It is not only into infrastructure development, through Nandi Infrastructure Corridor Enterprise Ltd (NICE) but is also into wind power. We know 2022, will be an year of renewable energy, due to NDA government's RE targets. The ace investor Radhakishan Damani holds 1.30% in the company.

It is a Dr.Babasaheb ("Baba") Neelkanth Kalyani company from the reputed Bharat Forge Group. Hence, we don't have to bother about its pedigree.

πŸ’’The stock of Bombay Rayon and Fashions Ltd (Rs.8.45) has hit another buyer Freeze, before the commencement of the AGM. The future trajectory of the scrip will hinge on the outcome of the AGM.

πŸ’’The stock of Generic Engineering Construction & Projects Ltd (Rs.38.50) has made an intraday high Rs.39.60. Generic Engineering Construction and Projects Ltd's total current outstanding order book stood at Rs.1,390.34 crore, as of May, 2021.

It is surprising that the stock is quoting at Rs.35.65. With this kind of order book any Mumbai based real estate company should trade near Rs.70/80. Buy in dips.

πŸ’’As expected the share of Shriram EPC Ltd (Rs.11) is doing fine. We can look for targets of Rs.35 in the coming days. The company is still under the management of the Reputed Shriram Group. 

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