The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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First of all let me tell you that delay in my posting is more due the new blogger Interface, which the clowns in Google have done by removing the old one, which was easy to use. 

This new blogger is so complex to navigate that it took some time for me to search internet regarding uploading of content. Google being a reputed company, such lapses in UI, questions its real intentions behind the change. Hence, kindly don't get offended if you are not able to see my blog contents, the way you used to witness earlier. 

Anyway, the benchmark indices are both ul today.  When this report is being made the BSE Sensex was seen at 38,186.93 up 146.36 points (+0.38%) while the Nifty was trading at 11,269.15 up 55.10 points (+0.49%). 

Global stock markets were upbeat after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order extending financial relief to the Americans hit by the Covid - 19 pandemic. 

In the broader market, the BSE Mid-Cap index gained 1.50% while the BSE Small Cap index rose 1.55% -- both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

#My Recommended GAIL (Rs.97.15) at around Rs.92/93, has today made a high of Rs.97.80. The stock could move towards Rs.103/105, if it sustIns above Rs.97.

Gail’s gas supply to fertilizer sector has increased to 43 million metric standard cubic meter per day (mmscmd) as of today from the average of 37mmscmd in FY20 or 11-12 mmscmd during the complete lockdown phase in April. 

In case of GAIL the Piped natural gas segment that supplies to residential areas is doing fine, inspite of Covid - 19 pandemic. However two factors are important :
  • Analysts expect an increase of 11-12 mmscmd of gas supplies once all the five Fertiliser plants come up by December 2021.
  • In a bid to give a boost to the country’s agriculture sector and aid farmers amid the Covid-19 crisis, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched Rs.1 lakh crore Agriculture Infrastructure Fund on Sunday. He also initiated the transfer of Rs.17,000 crore to an estimated 8.5 crore farmers under the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi scheme.

This will have a positive rub off effect on all the fertilizer, gas supplier and agriculture companies.

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