Tit - bits 

According to a report published in Money Control, globally, there have been over 17.7 lakh confirmed cases of COVID-19. 

At least 1.08 lakh people have died so far. At over 5.2 lakh, the United States has the highest number of confirmed cases. The US is followed by Spain, Italy, France and Germany. The outbreak continues to have a major impact on the global economy.

The Sky News on 12 April,  2020 reported that a vaccine for COVID-19 could be ready as soon as September, according to a professor from Oxford University. The news report goes on to say that Researchers are ready to begin Human Trials in the next Fortnight with the team working around the clock to develop the vaccine.

Meanwhile, on the last trading day, the Nifty spot closed at 9,111.90 up 363.15 points (+4.15%), while the Bank Nifty gave a closing at 19913.6 up 967.15 points (+5.1%), with some of the better placed Private Sector banks: : Axis Bank (Rs.420.15), ICICI Bank (Rs.342.70) and Kotak Mahindra Bank (Rs.1272.90) giving a massive 7% - plus upmove. 

The market will continue to move up as the government has declared a stimulus package and also lot of companies have decided to work from home, especially those from the IT and ITES sectors.

On the higher side Nifty moing above 9200 and Bank Nifty riding past 21448, will be considered as a great bullish move in the coming days.

In another significant development, the NFA government is acting very fast to avoid a shut down in the fertilizer sector.
According to Krishijagran.com, two specific set of instructions have been sent out from the highest levels of the government. The speed at which the government is moving is heartening, an industry official says.

There has been apprehensions that since India has a lock down and hence we cannot import products from China due to China’s closure of the Fertilizer plants.

But speaking on the global front, the fertiliser sector is not expected to witness any major impact on the global front as production in China remains low during January every year following Chinese New Year holidays, according to a ICRA report.

As per ICRA’s analysis, the domestic industy imports a major portion of the raw materials for phosphatic fertilisers, mainly phosphoric acid and finished fertilisers – mainly DAP (47% of total imports in FY2019) from China.

"The Indian fertiliser industry, with the markets currently remaining well supplied and the fourth quarter of the financial year being an off-season period for the industry, the impact of the Chinese shutdown is expected to be muted", ICRA group head and senior vice president K Ravichandran said.

The report said that a silver lining for the Indian urea industry in this crisis period is on the natural gas pricing front.

R-LNG, which now meets around 57% of the natural gas consumption for the domestic urea industry, has been witnessing a steady downtrend in prices.

With the decline in the term LNG prices and the weak spot gas prices, pooled price for the urea players will moderate leading to a lower cost of production and a lower subsidy outgo for the government.

Meanwhile, Icra said, as of now it does not see any major impact on the production in China, though disruptions in logistics and clearances for any material coming in from China for the virus could affect the supply chain and may result in intermittent spikes in the prices of technicals.

In such circumstances, I feel the rally in the fertilizer stocks is likely to continue. On last Thursday, my recommended Scrips:

#Deepak Fertilizer moved to Rs. 85.95, before closing at Rs.82.30 (up 4.64%).

#RCF Ltd moved to Rs.37, before closing at Rs.36.60 up 18.26%

#National Fertilisers Ltd moved to Rs.24.90, before closing at Rs. 24.05, up 11.60%.

My suggestion would be stay put in comsumption and construction related scrips. Avoid discretion based themes. 

The share of Ashoka Buildcon moved to Rs.51.20, before closing at Rs.50.45, up 18.15%. Hope you have been averaging the scrip, on market declines.

Nifty is likely to continue to trade in the green, but in view of market close on tomorrow, overall volatility could be low with VIX staying in 45/60 ranges. 

If you have the ability to invest around Rs.3/5 lakhs, on profit sharing basis, then you can come to me -- together we can make big.