Monday, February 17, 2020

Tit - bits
#The Nifty is now trading at 12102.10 down 11.40
points (-0.09%) while the Sensex is seen trading at 41245.75 down 11.99 points (-0.03%).

The broader market also declined. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.3% while the S&P BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.47%. The market breadth is negative. On the BSE, 725 shares rose and 1104 shares fell. A total of 116 shares were unchanged.

#The condition of Indian economy is not very well,  after five and half years of mismanagement by the team NaMo. This backward looking government has spoiled the economy which it inherited from UPA -- II.
Instead of reviving it, it was thrown into even more darkness.  But the current FM,  Nirmala Sitaraman is all agog with her green shoot theory. What I mean to say is that, after ruling for 5 and half years,  she is trying to say that Indian economy is in a revival path, when the BJP should have actually presented us with a vibrant economy.
But then when the BJP is able to get votes on Raam, Hindu - Muslim, Pakistan, etc, then why would this party care to improve employment or give a boost to rural economy by allocating more funds through MNREGA or such job generating schemes.

This brand of NaMo BJP,  which had a honeymoon period with PDP,  talks about removal of article 370 of our constitution. But in Supreme Court cases are pending in this regards, and I don't think Kashmir is better today,  than 6 years back. Meanwhile, there are media reports that the lockdown which began in the erstwhile state of J&K after August 5 cost Kashmir more than Rs.10,000 crore. Sectors directly dependent on the internet such as e-commerce are the worst-hit. Under the current regime in Delhi, the whole of India is in boiling state. 

It is pertinent to mention here that our former PM,  P Chidambaram, during the UPA rule had managed to give our economy a bulwark, even  during the US meltdown,  but now when the US economy is booming our FM is speaking of Green Shoots.  No one knows whether these shoots will become full fledged trees or will die some time later. 

#Another point which looks strange is though the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has lowered the price of domestically produced natural gas to $ 3.23 per million British thermal unit (mBtu) the shares of the companies from  downstream sectors like fertilizes,  petrochemical, power,  etc are not going anywhere.  

This budget is such a mismatch with the realities that the FM has cut for fertiliser subsidy, when the unpaid subsidy amount to the companies in this space is about to touch Rs.40,000 crore. The government should have 1st cleared the pending subsidy dues of companies and then went for a cut in fertilizer subsidy. But then when novices become FM, expecting too much is a moral fallacy.

Moreover,  I'm hearing since the last couple of years that fertiliser reforms are likely to be announced soon, and will focus on shifting the subsidy regime from direct credit to manufacturing companies to farmers, ensuring balanced use of chemical and organic fertilisers. Further, the news says for direct transfer to farmers (by crediting subsidy to their accounts instead of paying companies, as is the current practice), rationalising or decontrolling the price of urea and disincentivising the use of chemical fertilisers are under consideration. But unfortunately this rhetoric has not been actually walked through, even though half a year has passed after the NDA -- II took over. 

However, I feel this country will continue to progress even if we have NaMo like bogus premier and this BJP like Jumlabaaz party ruling India. 

#Anyway, after witnessing the teary condition of Indian economic landscape,  and a cut in gas prices, I have decided to recommend a scrip from the power sector which has good international business. Buy Transformers & Rectifiers (I) Ltd (TRIL) near Rs.9/9.30, for short to medium term perspective. Do you know that TRIL’s order book as on 23 December stands at around ₹1,161 crore? Buy without fail for targets of around Rs.12/15. SL: Rs.8.60. 
However, since it is a small cap,  the scrip might take some time to rise.  It is a solid company from the power space. But since it is a small/micro cap and hence usual risks are involved. This stock has already been recommended to the Premium Group members. 

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