Tit - bits
#The Nifty closed at 11,992.50 down 53.30 points
(-0.44%) taking cues from weak global markets and downgrade of India by the Moody's.
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| Photo: Hans India |
Shares across the globe spooked after iPhone maker Apple Inc said it was unlikely to meet its sales projections because of the coronavirus epidemic in China.
The Nifty would continue to get support around 11800/11900 levels and face resistance around 12100/12150 region. However, with UA economy doing well, the domestic indices would continue to rise due to inflation; even if the India economy is weak. So, if you are holding the share of a right company at the right price, good ROI is guaranteed over a period. Tomorrow, Indian markets (Nifty) will open gap up of at least 20 points. So, use intraday dips to buy good shares.
The Nifty would continue to get support around 11800/11900 levels and face resistance around 12100/12150 region. However, with UA economy doing well, the domestic indices would continue to rise due to inflation; even if the India economy is weak. So, if you are holding the share of a right company at the right price, good ROI is guaranteed over a period. Tomorrow, Indian markets (Nifty) will open gap up of at least 20 points. So, use intraday dips to buy good shares.
#Keep away from PSU Bank Stocks, as several media report suggest them having a significant exposures to the telecom operators. Acordoreports, bankers fear a possible collapse of Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.3, down 11.76%) will increase bad loans and spark a rerun of the crisis that gripped the banking sector a few years ago. If you are having any PSU Bank shares, kindly exit, as of now.
#The shares of Yes Bank Ltd fell to Rs.33.65 and closed at Rs.34.80 down 6.33%. I have been suggesting you exit the share since Rs.37/39.
There are doubts whether, it will be able to manage funds, in tough economic conditions in India. I think it will test new 52 - week low. Stay away.
#The shares of National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.23.75) made fresh 52 week low today, due to too much pessimism created by media, post cutting of fertilizer subsidy. Also, the NDA government should have paid the pending subsidy dues to the fertilizer companies before embarking on cutting the subsidy, though marginally -- I feel this move in the budget will have minimal negative effect on the bottomlines of fertilizer companies, however, when media creates undue sensation, my voice (or logic) gets drowned.
I had earlier requested the SEBI to take a close look at the counter, to find out if there is cartel out there to hack the scrip down.
Anyway listen, like people need food to survive, similarly we need fertilisers (both bio and chemical, apart Agri chemicals) to meet the demands of ever growing population.
Wherever Indians live, they will have to buy food for their survival. Bio fertilizers, alone are not sufficient to give a push to agricultural outputs. We need all types of fertilizers for this purpose, Nirmala Sitaraman has only spoken about the same in her budget speech -- if the market gives out wrong vibes from a right cause, then it is unfortunate. Can human beings survive without Food?
Take human example: will you like daal - roti everyday? What you will do in such cases? You may skip meal, isn't? Hence, over use of urea in soils without the adequate use of other fertilisers is having a toll on the productivity of land. If farmers are not getting good margin from their produce, from where they will get more and more cash to buy costly fertilisers (PK - types)?
Too much urea subsidy is screwing the concept of the balanced use of fertilizers. Therefore, urea decontrol is an immediate priority and the NDA government is working on it.
Moreover, National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.23.75) is a mini Ratna PSU, having excellent book value, P/E ratio, EPS, ROC, etc. It is also a disinvestment candidate and is into Chemical and Bio fertilizers, apart from having a presence in Agri chemicals. You must have seen many analysts have turned BULLISH on the Chemical sector, post coronavirus epidemic in China. Not only that, it has tied up with a North East based company to sell "Kissan" brand urea.
Besides, Ramagundam Plant is tentative to start production by 31st March, 2020.
Moreover, after bumper "Kariff" season, the analysts are expecting a rise in fertilizer demand in Ravi season too. India imports NKP fertilisers -- so demand outpaces supply. I therefore, feel that soon fertiliser scrips (especially those which are also into Agri chemicals) will be RERATED in the backdrop of rising Food Inflation and Chemical Story emerging out of China, which in turn will elevate the income of farmers. Annual food inflation around 7% is actually desirable for farmers to stay in business. Retail food inflation climbed up from 3% in August 2019 to 10% in November and rose further to 14% in December 2019, the highest in six years. Much of this hike was driven by a year-on-year rise in prices of vegetables (60%), pulses (15%) and animal proteins (9%), according to a report published in Mint, 21 January, 2020.
Hence, every dip is a buying opportunity, for targets above Rs.50, in NFL. Another interesting point: today, it closed near the day's high with a whooping delivery volume of 57.31%; giving the hint of a screeching buy. This is an investment grade scrip and hence there is no need to keep SL.
Also, according to BSE website: National Fertilizers reported Flat Financial performance in Dec-19. The score has improved to -3 from -18 in the last 3 months.
Technicals:
#Accumulate the shares of Hindustan Construction Company Ltd (HCC Ltd) near Rs.8.40/8.70 for short term targets of Rs.11.50/11.60. The company came out with superb set of numbers for Q3FY20. Also, the company is looking to reduce debts by substantial amounts. CMP: Rs.8.95.
I had earlier requested the SEBI to take a close look at the counter, to find out if there is cartel out there to hack the scrip down.
Anyway listen, like people need food to survive, similarly we need fertilisers (both bio and chemical, apart Agri chemicals) to meet the demands of ever growing population.
Wherever Indians live, they will have to buy food for their survival. Bio fertilizers, alone are not sufficient to give a push to agricultural outputs. We need all types of fertilizers for this purpose, Nirmala Sitaraman has only spoken about the same in her budget speech -- if the market gives out wrong vibes from a right cause, then it is unfortunate. Can human beings survive without Food?
Take human example: will you like daal - roti everyday? What you will do in such cases? You may skip meal, isn't? Hence, over use of urea in soils without the adequate use of other fertilisers is having a toll on the productivity of land. If farmers are not getting good margin from their produce, from where they will get more and more cash to buy costly fertilisers (PK - types)?
Too much urea subsidy is screwing the concept of the balanced use of fertilizers. Therefore, urea decontrol is an immediate priority and the NDA government is working on it.
Moreover, National Fertilisers Ltd (Rs.23.75) is a mini Ratna PSU, having excellent book value, P/E ratio, EPS, ROC, etc. It is also a disinvestment candidate and is into Chemical and Bio fertilizers, apart from having a presence in Agri chemicals. You must have seen many analysts have turned BULLISH on the Chemical sector, post coronavirus epidemic in China. Not only that, it has tied up with a North East based company to sell "Kissan" brand urea.
Besides, Ramagundam Plant is tentative to start production by 31st March, 2020.
Moreover, after bumper "Kariff" season, the analysts are expecting a rise in fertilizer demand in Ravi season too. India imports NKP fertilisers -- so demand outpaces supply. I therefore, feel that soon fertiliser scrips (especially those which are also into Agri chemicals) will be RERATED in the backdrop of rising Food Inflation and Chemical Story emerging out of China, which in turn will elevate the income of farmers. Annual food inflation around 7% is actually desirable for farmers to stay in business. Retail food inflation climbed up from 3% in August 2019 to 10% in November and rose further to 14% in December 2019, the highest in six years. Much of this hike was driven by a year-on-year rise in prices of vegetables (60%), pulses (15%) and animal proteins (9%), according to a report published in Mint, 21 January, 2020.
Hence, every dip is a buying opportunity, for targets above Rs.50, in NFL. Another interesting point: today, it closed near the day's high with a whooping delivery volume of 57.31%; giving the hint of a screeching buy. This is an investment grade scrip and hence there is no need to keep SL.
Also, according to BSE website: National Fertilizers reported Flat Financial performance in Dec-19. The score has improved to -3 from -18 in the last 3 months.
Technicals:
- As per Relative Strength Index, National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 9.77.
- As per Relative Strength Index (Smooth), National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 27.14.
- As per Williams %R , National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of -94.03.
- As per CCI , National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of -100.35.
- As per Slow Stochastic, National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 4.41.
- As per Fast Stochastic , National Fertilizers Ltd. is in over sold range with a value of 5.97.
#Accumulate the shares of Hindustan Construction Company Ltd (HCC Ltd) near Rs.8.40/8.70 for short term targets of Rs.11.50/11.60. The company came out with superb set of numbers for Q3FY20. Also, the company is looking to reduce debts by substantial amounts. CMP: Rs.8.95.
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