The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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#A major explosion rocked an ammonia-urea
plant factory of Brahmaputra Valley Fertilizer Corporation Limited (BVFCL) at Namrup in Assam's Dibrugarh district, few days back. The explosion destroyed several machines and properties at the plant. According to the media reports, the plant could remain shut for several weeks for repair.
This looks like positive for all fertilizer companies since it will choke supplies. Moreover, National Fertilizers Ltd (Rs.26 85), has entered into North-Eastern states after making successful foray in Southern India. The company in a statement recently said that it has tied up with BVFCL,  the Assam based PSU, for marketing 40,000 tonnes of urea in North-Eastern states under the brand name "Kisan Urea". Besides, BVFCL was not able to produce even 2 lakh metric tonne for the current fiscal year due to plant issues.  So,  supply bottlenecks in the north east are likely to be exploited by NFL. It is engaged in producing and marketing urea, neem coated urea, bio-fertilizers (solid and liquid) and other allied industrial products.
Buy in every dips for medium to long term targets of Rs.91/97. Yesterday, the percentage of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity was a whooping 44.48 %.

#Indian steel industry welcomed the NDA government's decision to promulgate an ordinance to open up coal mining in the country to non-coal companies. 

Indian Steel Association (ISA) said it hails the decision of the Cabinet to amend MMDR Act 1957 and Coal Mines (Special Provisions) Act 2015.
The step taken is expected to make the domestic steel industry more competitive on a global level and will go a long way in reducing the coal imports. 
We could see some speculative gains in Steel counters in the coming days. Steel producers meanwhile, raised prices this year by Rs.1,000-1,500 a tonne as demand perked up.
If you want to know which steel stock looks attractive at the present moment, then you need to join either my Premium Information Service or go for 70:30 profit sharing scheme.

#IT/Software stocks could give good returns in the short term due to devalued INR. I have a good stock in this space which can double in 12/18 months time frame. If anyone wants to invest in that sure shot scrip from the mid cap space,  on profit sharing scheme of 60:40 between you and me can send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com.

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