Two Tests for India: The Rupee Under Pressure, and SEPC Ltd (₹4.95) at a Valuation Crossroads

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence Rupee Watch | Small-Cap Research Two Tests for India: The Rupee Under Pressure, and SEPC Ltd (₹4.95) at a Valuation Crossroads The RBI is reportedly weighing a ₹50 lakh sub-limit on some overseas remittances, paired with tax relief to attract inflows. SEPC trades at ₹4.95 against a ₹9.87 valuation report, with a Jharkhand stay, ₹154 crore freed and a 44% dilution from the Avenir share swap in play. India's markets are asking two very different questions. The first is macro: is pressure on the rupee pushing the RBI toward tighter limits on overseas remittances? The second is company-specific: can SEPC Ltd (₹4.95), trading at half the ₹9.87 in its July valuation report, close that gap? One concerns national economic policy. The other concerns corporate execution and shareholder value. Both deserve examination on their own merits, and both demand the same discipline: separate a proposal f...
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National Fertiliser Ltd (Rs.29.70): Buy 
Short Term targets:Rs. 37/41. 

Triggers:

  • The company has a subsidy outstanding of
    around Rs.5000 crore as of 31st March, 2019. Interestingly, subsidy inflow has started from April,  2019, which will reduce the borrowings. Rs.5000 crore upholstery of the topline would definitely take the scrip to new levels, 
  • The company achieved a record sales of  27 Lakh tonnes during the 1st half of the current fiscal. 
  • The NDA government's Kissan Samman Nidhi scheme, would be indirectly positive for National Fertiliser Ltd.It has diversified into seeds and ageo chemical business. Interestingly, it was manufacturing and selling urea till 2014/15, but it is now into DAP,  NPK and MoP products. 
  • It is investing Rs.1000 crore in energy saving schemes,  that are being implemented in all the company's five plants.
  • The dividend yield of the shares of the company is Rs.6.90%, while the book value of the shares of the company is Rs. 45.23.

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