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SumanSpeaks Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 2006 Governance · Regulatory Risk Reliance Power: When Legal Clouds Gather Over Market Euphoria ₹20,367 crore attached across the Reliance Anil Ambani Group. A ₹68.2 crore fake bank guarantee at the centre of it. A former CFO in custody for ten months and counting. And a stock that's still down more than half from its 52-week high even after a sharp rally. The market is pricing the turnaround. The Enforcement Directorate is pricing the history. Both can't be right forever. Reliance Power Ltd (₹24.07) has genuinely turned a corner operationally over the past two years — debt reduction, a growing renewable and BESS order pipeline, and periods of sharp investor re-rating. That part of the story is real and deserves credit. But sitting underneath that story is a live,...
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Winning Strokes: Think Different
Photo: Ro.Aliment
The Nifty declined over half a percent to close below 11000 at 10977.55. Nifty fell by around 6% in September F&O series expiry --  one of the worst F&O expiry in seven months. All the major indices recorded a sharp decline yesterday except the Tech stocks. Some of the Negatives affecting the Indian bourses are:
  • IL&FS default on debt repayment, 
  • Brent Crude spiked to 4-year high,
  • Increased USD-INR ratio,
  • Concern of a trade war between China and US,
  • US Fed hiking interest rate by 25 bps on Wednesday and more importantly
  • Deepening of the NBFC crisis with SEBI now seeking the details from mutual funds about their exposure to all NBFCs and housing finance companies; amid concerns over liquidity in the system.
In such a scenario, I can only foresee further sliding of the Indian markets (Nifty Spot) to levels 10930/10870. The traders are suggested to keep in abeyance all their buy calls, as was mentioned to the Premium Members earlier.

 Brokerage View on Nifty Futures: Nifty future closed negative with the losses of 0.76% at 10978. Option data is scattered at all the strike prices on account of beginning of new October Series. On option front, maximum Put OI is at 11000 followed by 10800 strike while maximum Call OI is at 11500 followed by 11200 strikes. We have seen Put writing at 11000 followed by 10800 strikes while Call writing is seen at 11200 then 11100 strike. Option band signifies a wider trading range in between 10850 to 11171 zones. India VIX fell down by 0.98% at 16.92 levels. Sector wise selling pressure was seen in Banking, NBFC,FMCG and Auto sector while buying interest was seen in IT Space.

#I have given two F&O Sell Calls to the Premium Members considering the current negative scenario. I will publish the name of the stocks during the market hours today. In fact I would suggest you to exit from all your long positions (if any) as I am expecting panic selling in the coming days.

#Stay away from the Mumbai based Real Estate stocks, as they are likely to go down further following a report which speaks of grim economic scenario prevalent in the city. Mumbai came at poor 4th after Surat and miles behind Delhi and Hyderabad. 

~~with inputs from the Internet....

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