The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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Pre-Session: Shares may slide at opening bell
16-Aug-18: Market is seen opening lower, tracking mixed leads from Asian market and overnight decline on the Wall Street. Trading of Nifty 50 index futures on the Singapore stock exchange indicates that the Nifty could fall 24 points at the opening bell.

Overseas, most Asian stocks declined, tracking overnight fall in the US market. Japan logged a bigger-than-expected trade deficit in July as the cost of energy imports surged, government data showed Thursday. The trade deficit came to 231.2 billion yen ($2.1 billion) following a revised 720.8 billion yen surplus in June, according to a preliminary report by the Finance Ministry. Exports grew 3.9% from a year earlier to 6.75 trillion yen amid an increase in demand for electronic components from the rest of Asia, but were overshadowed by a 14.6% rise in imports to 6.98 trillion yen.

In US, stocks came off intraday lows but still closed lower Wednesday as worries surrounding Turkey's currency crisis and continued trade tensions weighed on investors' confidence. A sharp fall in oil prices sent the energy sector skidding, making it the worst S&P 500 performer.

On the US data front, retail sales rose 0.5% in July. Excluding auto sales, they were up 0.6%. Separately, second-quarter productivity rose 2.9%, the highest rate in more than three years. Output in the second quarter was up 4.8%. The Empire State manufacturing index rose 3 points to 25.6 in August, the New York Fed said Wednesday, topping expectations for a reading of 20.

Closer home, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 378.84 crore on Tuesday, 14 August 2018, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 391.47 crore on Tuesday, 14 August 2018, as per provisional data.

Key benchmark indices logged modest gains on Tuesday, 14 August 2018, snapping two-day losses, after retail inflation slowed to a nine-month low. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, rose 207.10 points or 0.55% to settle at 37,852. The Nifty 50 index rose 79.35 points or 0.70% to settle at 11,435.10. The Indian stock market was shut on Wednesday, 15 August 2018, on account of Independence Day.

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