The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
Market Pulse
The market trimmed gains in early afternoon trade as profit booking emerged at higher levels. The Sensex is now trading above the psychological 33,000 mark. Positive trend in other Asian indices boosted sentiment in domestic market. Cement and telecom shares rose.

The market hit fresh intraday high in mid-morning trade after opening in positive terrain. Key indices trimmed gains in early afternoon trade. The Sensex rose 358.17 points, or 1.09% at the day's high of 33,354.93 in mid-morning trade, its highest level since 16 March 2018. The index rose 94.06 points, or 0.29% at the day's low of 33,090.82 in early trade. The Nifty rose 102.95 points, or 1.02% at the day's high of 10,227.30 in mid-morning trade, its highest level since 16 March 2018. The index rose 48.85 points, or 0.48% at the day's low of 10,173.20 in early trade in early trade.

Among secondary barometers, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 0.80%. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.79%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1,473 shares rose and 960 shares fell. A total of 161 shares were unchanged.

Overseas, Asian shares were trading higher after recent losses amidst caution ahead of a key US Federal Reserve policy meeting outcome. US stocks ended higher Tuesday, led by strong gains in the energy sector as the overall market reclaimed some lost ground from the previous day, when tech shares fell sharply.

The US Federal Reserve started a two-day monetary policy meeting yesterday, 20 March 2018. The outcome of the meeting will be announced later in the global day today, 21 March 2018, with new Chair Jerome Powell set to give his first news conference.

Transport Corporation of India rose 2.26% after the company announced acquisition of a new ship to increase capacity in the West coast of India. The announcement was made after market hours yesterday, 20 March 2018.

Transport Corporation of India said that the company's division, TCI Seaways, has announced capacity addition and business expansion of its domestic coastal shipping business through acquisition of another vessel in the West coast of India. The total investment made in the acquisition of the new ship is about Rs 48.80 crore. The financing for this new ship has been done through internal accruals and loan from banks. The new ship with a dead weight tonnage (DWT) 26262 can hold 766 containers (TEUs and FEUs). Each container with a carrying capacity of 30 tonne will be plying in the West-South coast corridor.

On the economic front, investment bank Goldman Sachs reportedly downgraded its forecasts for India's economy on Tuesday, 20 March 2018, in the wake of a more than $2 billion fraud at Punjab National Bank, warning it could spark tighter regulation of the banking sector that would constrain credit growth. Goldman Sachs lowered its real GDP forecast on India till March 2019 to 7.6% from 8% earlier. For the current fiscal ending 31 March, it forecasts the Indian economy to grow 6.6%.

Today's Calls:
#Buy the shares of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd at around Rs.448-449, SL: Rs.446, Target: Rs.471. The infrastructure companies are likely to do well in the days to come, especially Reliance Infra, after it had substantially reduced its debt and has an order book of more than Rs.5000 crore. 

#Buy the shares of Lanco Infrastructure Ltd at the lower circuit at Rs.1.15 and keep holding. The stocks of high debt companies fell after Dr.Subramanium Swamy's tweet on Adani group. However, these are the times, you need to take positions in such scrips. Earlier there were news reports that: Four companies have evinced interest in acquiring Lanco Infratech, the holding company for several power and infrastructure projects having loan totaling more than Rs.45,000 crore.

#The stock of Jai Corp Ltd today rose to Rs.145.5, and is now trading at around Rs.141.50. The stock has huge prospects going forward.

#The shares of 3i Infotech Ltd has hit the buyer freeze at Rs.4.85 in the NSE. The investors should keep holding and start averaging after it gives a closing above Rs.6. 

~~ with inputs from Capital Market - Live News...

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