WINNING STROKES

Trading for the week ended on a buoyant note as dream run on the Dalal street continued, with key benchmark indices settling with decent gains and extending their record high hitting streak. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex rose 251.29 points or 0.71% to settle at 35,511.58. The Nifty 50 index advanced 77.70 points or 0.72% to settle at 10,894.70. The Nifty crossed the psychological 10,900-mark for the first time in its history. Both the Sensex, and the Nifty, hit record high levels in intraday as well as on closing basis.

Firmness in global stocks and GST council in its latest meet slashing the tax rate on 54 services and 29 items and also simplifying return filing process for businesses boosted sentiment. The market gained for the third straight day.

The S&P BSE Mid-Cap index gained 0.77%. The S&P BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.88%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative. On the BSE, 1,464 shares fell and 1,422 shares rose. A total of 144 shares were unchanged.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 5494.83 crore, lower than turnover of Rs 6015.23 crore registered during the previous trading session.

Most realty stocks gained. D B Realty (up 4.97%), Indiabulls Real Estate (up 4.42%), Unitech (up 2.84%), NBCC (up 0.88%), Godrej Properties (up 3.49%), and Oberoi Realty (up 1.19%) edged higher. DLF (down 0.56%), Sobha (down 2.11%), and Housing Development & Infrastructure (HDIL) (down 1.3%) declined.

Severely impacted by various reforms like RERA, GST and demonetisation, the realty sector is reportedly pinning its hopes on Budget 2018-19 for relief measures like lower taxes and infrastructure status for the sector. Industry players are expecting rationalisation of the GST rates from the current 12% to 6% and bringing stamp duty under the ambit of GST. Single window clearances for all approvals and additional tax incentives for first time home buyers are also expected.

Bank stocks also gained. Among public sector banks, Punjab National Bank (up 3.22%), Union Bank of India (up 2.47%), State Bank of India (up 1.98%), Indian Bank (up 1.44%), IDBI Bank (up 0.5%) and Bank of Baroda (up 1.63%) edged higher. Corporation Bank declined 0.51%.

Meanwhile, the Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley Chaired the 25th meeting of the GST Council in New Delhi on 18 January 2018. The Council has recommended certain changes in GST/IGST rate and clarifications in respect of GST rate on certain goods as per discussions in the 25th GST Council meeting. It slashed the tax rate on 54 services and 29 items, including old and used motor vehicles bio-diesel, while also simplifying return filing process for businesses. Certain policy changes have also been recommended by the GST Council.

Among the macro data in US, first-time weekly jobless claims fell to a 45-year low, dropping by 41,000 to 220,000. Meanwhile, construction of new houses fell 8.2% in December to a 1.19 million annual rate. Permits for future construction were basically flat at 1.30 million. Still, permits, housing starts and the number of new homes completed all hit the highest levels since 2007. A gauge of Philadelphia-area manufacturing fell to five-month low of 22.2 in January, the Philadelphia Fed said.

#The stock of Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd recommended around Rs.132.50, closed at Rs.135.80. Those who have not booked intraday profits yesterday can continue to hold, with the targets of Rs.137-142. 

#The stock of HDIL after breaking a crucial support closed at Rs.60.90 yesterday.  However, the candle stick chart analysis, accompanied by other other parameters do suggest that probably a bottom has been formed. I am looking for an upward target of Rs.65 in the coming days and upon closing above Rs.67.5, we can look for targets of Rs.84-87 in the coming days. Please keep a SL at Rs.59, if the share fails to perform as expected.

#The scrip of 3i Infotech Ltd yesterday closed at Rs.7.03 in the BSE. However, I feel that the stock will  not break the support zone of Rs.6.75-7. After the price stabilizes, the investors can accumulate. The company has been doing well during the last few quarter and it is a turnaround story, where prudent investors should park their funds. 

#Those who are holding the shares of the PRIVATE BANK, Federal Bank of India Ltd (Rs.103.15), can look for targets of Rs111-115 in the coming days. If the government tweaks with the FDI limit, then it will be one of the beneficiaries among the private banking space. The company came out with excellent set of Q3 number, but somehow the bear operators were able to invade the minds of the investors with asset quality argument, even though the management seems to be confident regarding its bright future. 

#Now, one thing I would like to mention here: the contents of this blog is for information purpose only and is also suitable for person who already have some experience in the market. This blog assumes that you are already a seasoned trader in the market with at least 5-6 years of experience. It is not for novices and fly  by night stock market traders, who think that making money from the market is as easy as buying vegetables from a local shop. Therefore, my suggestion for this band of traders, would be to not to follow this blog blindly in the hope of making big in the short term. We have spent decades here - if you are thinking that you will become Ashish Chugh or Porinju Veliyath, in matter of 2--3 years because you are an MBA Finance or a CA or an ICWAI or have done some courses on the stock market, then there cannot be a greater fool than you and all those who are rallying behind you. 

I have been writing in this blog, since more than a decade, before that I was writing in Yahoo and Google Groups and before that in the form of a Financial Journalists in Bombay and before as an investor in mutual fund and securities; even then I make mistakes. Therefore, the things are not that easy as it looks from a distance. Lot of hard work goes in the choice of stocks and more importantly taking split second decisions regarding them, based on chart patterns and available fundamental information; plus source based inputs. 

The point which I am trying to hammer is that: I give some frameworks here, based on some data which you should use to do your own research to come out successful in the market. Or else you should take the hep of experts to analyse the points mentioned here. Novices, should therefore, not send me personal messages in the Facebook or write silly questions on my timeline like why NDTV Ltd has fallen below the recommended price or why HDIL is not moving up -- without understanding that a stock cannot move up as soon as it is recommended here or it cannot move up daily; because there are so many factors at play which influences the prices of shares in the short to long term..... 

Moreover, if you have an equity capital of around Rs,2 lakhs, then come to me with demat account from any brokerage house, we will make money through daily and short term trading too - on profit sharing basis. This  is the best time, as the market has given some directions now and it is more predictable at present than it was 1 year down the line. 

If you are unable to pay the high yearly subscription charges for Premium Membership, then I feel this is the best alternative to make money, with joint effort. Lot of my clients have been making money, through daily and short term trading since sometime -- you can also join this group. I have eliminated the need to open a demat account with BMA Wealth Creators for this option, after lot of requests came from the blog readers in this front. Having said, this you need to keep a minimum deposit of Rs.25000 (negotiable) with me, to start trading on profit sharing basis. This money would be refunded once, you leave my service. I am forced to take this step, because of some dishonest traders/investors/punters who come make money with my 24x7 help but escape without paying for my hard work. 

~~ with inputs from Capital Market - Live News