The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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Market Pulse
The Key indices trading with tiny gains in morning trade. The BSE  Sensex is now trading at 33,579.66 up 18.11 points (+0.05%), while the NSE  is now trading at 10,351.75 up 9.45 (+0.09%) points amid mixed Asian cues.

On the macro front, in order to review the Income-tax Act, 1961 (the Act) and to draft a new Direct Tax Law in consonance with economic needs of the country, the Government yesterday, 22 November 2017, has constituted a task force with Arbind Modi, Member (Legislation), CBDT-Convener. Dr. Arvind Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) will be a permanent special invitee in the task force. The terms of reference of the task force is to draft an appropriate Direct Tax Legislation keeping in view; the direct tax system prevalent in various countries, the international best practices, the economic needs of the country and any other matter connected thereto.

Overseas, Asian stocks were mixed. In US, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrials Average ended slightly lower yesterday, 22 November 2017, maintaining a soft tone after the Federal Reserve minutes indicated that an interest-rate hike is likely but the pace of future tightening could be more moderate than expected given muted inflation. The Nasdaq Composite Index bucked the broader trend to finish at a record, logging its third gain in a row.

The Fed viewed a “near-term” increase in interest rates as possible but central bank officials also expressed concerns about persistently low inflation, hinting that the bank may dial back its rate increases in 2018. The minutes also showed that several members worried that keeping interest rates too low could create a financial bubble.

US durable-goods orders fell 1.2% in October. Excluding transportation orders increased 0.4%. Initial jobless claims a tool to measure US layoffs, fell by 13,000 to 239,000 in the week ended 18 November. The University of Michigan's latest read on consumer sentiment came in at 98.5, topping expectations.

#Today RCom Ltd touched Rs.14.10, intra-day, which is an excellent opportunity to exit the counter. I still maintain sell on rise strategy on Reliance Communications Ltd, with no visible sign of takeover by the giants in the industry, at least in the short term.

#Today Jai Balaji Industries Ltd touched Rs.14.25. It is now a takeover candidate, after Bhusan Steel Ltd (Rs.74). I am looking for a medium term target of Rs.31-32, as the steel sector gathers momentum.

#B F Utilities Ltd today touched Rs.546,95, intra-day. You can book 75% of profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.522. The stock has a strong resistance around Rs.545-553 band.

 #SKM Egg Products Ltd today touched Rs.106.45 and is now trading at around Rs.102.40. You can keep holding as long as Rs.96 is not broken on the downside. The egg prices have maintained their uptrend, and this positive effect will be seen in Q3FY18 results.

#Gitanjali Gems Ltd recommended around Rs.66-67, last month today touched Rs.86.45 and is now trading near the days high. You can hold the stock, with a SL of Rs.81, for targets of Rs.87-91. 3rd and 4th targets of Rs.87 & Rs.91 respectively, has been achieved in case of Gitanjali Gems Ltd as it made an Intraday high: of Rs.92.35. Book complete profit and wait for dips  to enter again.

#Yesterday, a buy call was given on Shilpi Cable Technologies Ltd (Rs.14.90) at around Rs.14.45, mentioning that the correction might be over. Today the stock touched Rs.15.15, intra-day. You can still add on declines with short term targets of Rs.17-19.

Today's Calls:
1. Buy GSFC Futures on declines around Rs.142- 142.50, SL below Rs.139.50, T: Rs.146. Book Profit around Rs.144.

2. TATA ELXSI recommended yesterday around Rs.947 has touched Rs.965 -- Book Part Profit.

3. Buy Chennai Petro around Rs.426, SL: Rs.417, T: Rs.441 on T+2 basis.

4. Buy A2Z Infrastructure Ltd at around Rs.37.50-38, for short term targets of Rs.41-42. Book Partial Profits at around Rs.39.50 and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.37.

5. Intraday SHORT COPPER at around Rs.448.80, SL above Rs.451,  T: Rs.445.30 [Risky Call].  Book Partial Profit in Intra-day SELL call on Copper, CMP 447.20. Trailing SL above Rs.448.80.

6. Buy TVS Motors (CMP: Rs.734.55) on declines around Rs.731-732, SL below Rs.723, T: Rs.746-752. It reached Rs.730.50 intra-day, after recommendation. Hope you have entered the scrip. Book Full Intraday profit at Rs.737.40.

7.  BTST/T+1: Buy ZEE Limted at around Rs.564.50, SL: Rs.554, T: Rs.578-584.

-- with inputs from Capital Market - Live News

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