Two Tests for India: The Rupee Under Pressure, and SEPC Ltd (₹4.95) at a Valuation Crossroads

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence Rupee Watch | Small-Cap Research Two Tests for India: The Rupee Under Pressure, and SEPC Ltd (₹4.95) at a Valuation Crossroads The RBI is reportedly weighing a ₹50 lakh sub-limit on some overseas remittances, paired with tax relief to attract inflows. SEPC trades at ₹4.95 against a ₹9.87 valuation report, with a Jharkhand stay, ₹154 crore freed and a 44% dilution from the Avenir share swap in play. India's markets are asking two very different questions. The first is macro: is pressure on the rupee pushing the RBI toward tighter limits on overseas remittances? The second is company-specific: can SEPC Ltd (₹4.95), trading at half the ₹9.87 in its July valuation report, close that gap? One concerns national economic policy. The other concerns corporate execution and shareholder value. Both deserve examination on their own merits, and both demand the same discipline: separate a proposal f...
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Today's Calls
1. Buy Tata Motors Ltd at Rs.442, T: Rs.471-475, SL: Rs.437.  There is some reshuffle in the management of Tata Motors.

2. Buy in Bulk the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.34.15) as it could get merged with RJio and become a formidable player in the telecom sector. The amount of properties Reliance Industries have in Navi Mumbai (New Bombay) is of astronomical proportions. Upon merger with RIL group, the RCOM will get sufficient financial clout to take on the competition; as it will then be a part of the RJio. Therefore, buy in Bulk the shares of RCom.

3. Those who are holding the shares of Reliance Power (Rs.50.45) are suggested to keep holding as Anil Ambani Ground shares is likely to move up now. We are already witnessing good moves in Reliance Capital Ltd (Rs.612) and Reliance Infrastructure Ltd (Rs.582).

3. Buy the shares of Idea Cellular at Rs.84.80, T: Rs.91 - 101. There is nonneed to keep S L as after RJio's Paid service most of the telecom stocks are likely to zoom. Moreover, Post-merger, leverage (of the merged entity) is expected to fall gradually, while the quality of spectrum assets will rise. Even after they surrender excess spectrum, they will hold more spectrum than both Airtel and Jio. There are a host of other synergy benefits, and it turns out that a large proportion of shareholder value hinges on extracting these benefits. It is useless to spend time analysing the standalone entity as the merger is now a happening case.

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