Reliance Communications: The Future Telecom Godzilla

CMP: Rs.38.25

The stock of RCom has been on a steady upmove since the last few days, as Reliance Jio (RJio) is scheduled to start its Paid Service from next month. This has again brought the stocks of Telecom companies into Focus. The scrip of Idea Cellular (Rs.108) has almost doubled from its 52-week low price of Rs.65.80, due to Vodafone news. Following similar positive trails, the share of RCom is also expected to touch Rs.71-72 in the next 6-9 months time. I have ben saying since sometime that it should not go below Rs.30, and till date, this has not been violated (52-week low: Rs.30.60 in the NSE); which somewhat attests to my buy on declines stand.

Meanwhile, there are recent media reports that, Anil Ambani-promoted Reliance Communications Ltd (RCom) has obtained approval from capital markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to spin-off and merge its wireless division with Aircel Ltd and Dishnet Wireless Ltd, as per stock market disclosure.

The proposed merger, which is expected to create India’s third-largest telecom operator by users on completion of the deal, has also received nod from the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd and BSE Ltd.

Following this, RCom has now filed an application with National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Mumbai Bench, for its approval, it said in a statement.

Mumbai-based RCom has signed a definitive agreement to merge its wireless business with smaller rival Aircel in September last year. The merged entity will combine RCom’s wireless business and Aircel’s operations in India, including all the spectrum held by the two companies.

The approval takes it one step closer to the deal which will allow RCom, which will retain all the non-wireless business, to streamline its divisions and reduce debt by Rs20,000 crore, or roughly 48% of the Rs41,362.1 crore outstanding as of 31 March 2016.

On the other side, Aircel, owned by Maxis Communications Bhd, will see its debt reduce by Rs4,000 crore, upon completion of the transaction in 2017.

Once the deal is completed, which is subject to other necessary approvals, Both RCom and Maxis Communications will hold 50% each in the merged entity and have equal representation on the board and committees.

The merged company’s subscribers will have access to nationwide 4G LTE services in the sub-1GHz band, under RCom’s existing nationwide spectrum sharing and intra-circle roaming arrangements with Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd.

RCom already has enough of the luctrative 800 MHz spectrum necessary for 4G transmission, and which it shares with RJio. Also, as RJio expands it will benefit RCom, as the former is using latter's network (infrastructure), at a price.

Now if we look at the chart of RCom, we can see the formation of a Dragonfly Doji like pattern on the uptrend (though, not exactly).  

It will pertinent to mention here that Thomas N. Bulkowski in his book, Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts wrote:

"The dragonfly doji is an interesting name for a candle that is supposed to act as a bullish reversal. It is a reversal candle, but only half the time. Random, in other words. If you see a dragonfly doji in the bush, do not be frightened. The 10-day performance after the breakout ranks it 98th out of 103 candles, where 1 is best. In other words, ignore it. Its bite is usually not fatal. Usually.

The dragonfly doji is an interesting name for a candle that is supposed to act as a bullish reversal. It is a reversal candle, but only half the time. Random, in other words. If you see a dragonfly doji in the bush, do not be frightened. The 10-day performance after the breakout ranks it 98th out of 103 candles, where 1 is best. In other words, ignore it. Its bite is usually not fatal. Usually".

Therefore, I feel the traders should continue to accumulate RCom, for immediate targets of Rs.54 - 55 - 57 - 60, from where it fell -- the good days are to return for the shareholders of RCom.