Brokerage Report

Green shoots: Positive IIP data + Controlled Inflation + Robust Indirect Tax Collection Numbers, Depicts Incipient Recovery

Factory   output   growth for   the   country   surged   to   3.8% in  June up  from  2.5% (revised) in  the  previous month...

Photo: Green Shoots Psychology

The  index  of  industrial  production  (IIP)  rose  to  a four-month    high    on the    back    of rebound    in    the manufacturing sector, which rose 4.6% in June compared to 2.9%  growth  in  the  year  earlier  period.  The  turnaround  in consumer  goods  and  consumer  durables  also  augured  well but the capital goods sector contracted after seven months, pointing  to  weakness  in  investment  conditions. 

The  data suggested  a  slow  pickup  in  demand  following  the  lowering of  interest  rates.  As  many  as  16  of  the  22  sub-sectors posted positive growth.

Retail Inflation remained within the RBI’s comfort zone at 3.78%...
Retail  inflation,  the  primary  gauge  for  the  Reserve  Bank  of  India, softened sharply in July to 3.78% from 5.40 % in June, much   below   the central   bank's   comfort   zone,   quelling immediate  upside  risks  arising  out  of  deficient  monsoon estimates.

Price of pulses remained a worry as they shot up nearly  23%  year-on-year  in  July,  but  food  and  beverages inflation remained benign at 2.9%.

Fresh Hopes: Another Rate Cut...
Belying  concerns  related  to weak  monsoon,  food  inflation softened.The   sharp   moderation   in   retail   inflation   is expected  to  trigger  calls  for  a  cut  in  interest  rates.  RBI  left rates unchanged in its policy review earlier this month. The latest  retail  inflation  data  is  much  below  the  comfort  level of RBI.