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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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Market Mantra
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The Nifty which was falling continuously after a rally of 575 points since the last few days have at last found a support around 8400--8370 ranges. Yesterday, it was mentioned to the Premium Group, that if the Nifty is able to hold 8370, we could look for higher targets in the coming days. Nifty as expected bounced back from the oversold levels, today, during the intra-day trade and is now trading at 8,375.60 marginally down by 2.15  points. The Nifty had fallen 248 points last week and till yesterday the bears had an upper-hand, in absence of any fresh policy push from the GOI. In such circumstances the traders are suggested to buy Nifty futures around the support range mentioned above (corresponding to the spot levels), for a short term target of 8424-8454; where the supply is likely to come.
Today's call: Buy the shares of Reliance Capital Ltd at Rs.423.60-424, for a target of Rs.460, in the short term. The scrip seems to have got a support around Rs.420--424 ranges. The passage of the long-pending Insurance Bill — which has increased the cap on foreign direct investment in the insurance sector from 26% to 49%— has come as a shot in the arm for Indian insurance companies. Reliance Capital Ltd, a part of the ADAG, that has interests in insurance (life and general), asset management, consumer loans and broking businesses, stands to gain as it can nowunlock value in its insurance subsidiaries by listing or transferring shares to its foreign partner. The company is among the few listed players that has significant exposure to the insurance businesses. Also, the company’s asset management business offers a good value unlocking opportunity. Japan-based Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank recently acquired 2.% in Reliance Capital for Rs.371 crore — valuing the company at Rs.530 per share. The tie-up could help Reliance Capital in its endeavour to set up a bank in India, if permitted by the RBI. Now according to an analysis presented in a pink daily vlued on a sum-of-parts (SOTP) basis, the fair value of Reliance Capital works out to Rs.581 per share. This means there is ample space for appreciation from the CMP of Rs.423.60.
My recommended Gitanjali Gems Ltd today moved to Rs.48.70, intra-day and is  now trading around Rs.47.10. We can look for much higher targets in the coming days. 

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