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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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MARKET MANTRA
Nifty which opened today at 8871.35 made an intra-day low of 8825.45 and a high of 8878.20. After that Nifty is now trading in a tight range of 15-20 points and is currently trading at 8835.95 up marginally by 0.35 points. As long as Nifty is above 8600, the bulls do not  have to worry much. The focus has already shifted to good small and mid cap counters. 
Today's Call: Buy Reliance Capital Ltd at Rs.474, for a short term target of Rs.545. Recently, there were some media news that, Japan-based Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (SMTB) has acquired a minority stake in the Anil Ambani-led Reliance Capital Ltd (RCL) – part of the Reliance Group – for Rs.371Cr. The investment is being made at Rs.530 per share, which is much higher than the CMP of Rs.474. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank (SMTB) is the largest bank in Japan (in terms of market capitalisation and corporate loans) and largest financial institution in the country, managing assets of $682 billion with assets under custody of $1.8 trillion as of September 2014. Moreover, today Max India Ltd (Rs.487.55) is up more than 7%.Reliance Capital Ltd has interests in asset management and mutual funds, life and general insurance, commercial and home finance, stock-broking, wealth management services, distribution of financial products, asset reconstruction, proprietary investments and other activities in financial services.
Meanwhile, Jindal Saw Ltd is finding resistance to cross Rs.87. Therefore, the short term traders are suggested to book profits around Rs.86.50, in any intra-day bounce and wait for the stock to close above Rs.87.10, for taking fresh entry. However the long term investors can hold the scrip with a SL of Rs.81.70.
MRPL today touched Rs.53 and is now trading at Rs.51.40. The scrip should slowly move towards Rs.60-62, in the coming days. 
Use every rise in Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.15.60), to exit the counter, till the situation becomes more fluid. With so much debt on the books and then selling of profit making overseas subsidiary, does not augur well for the company. 
Accumulate Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd (Rs.7.80) on all declines for some super-duper returns in the short to medium term. Target: Rs.12.

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