The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT
My yesterday's call Shree Renuka Sugars Ltd at Rs.16.50, today moved to Rs.17.15 before cooling down at Rs.16.75. Buy call was given on the news that, the State-owned oil marketing companies are planning to float tenders in July to procure around 600 mln ltr of ethanol.
Today a buy call was initiated in Nifty_Futures at 5765 for a target of 5820, which I think will be achieved within this week. Today, the DIIs were net buyers while there was selling basically from the FIIs. 
A Buy call was initiated today in  Wipro Ltd at Rs.344-345, T--Rs.358--361, SL--Rs.339. The depreciation in the INR against the USD is positive for all the IT counters.  
Some Important News:
  • (+VE) TELECOM: The Telecom Commission is in favour of allowing 100% FDI in the sector with the condition that FDI up to 49% will be automatic, said a senior official.
  • (-VE) COAL INDIA: Produced 102.87 MnT of coal in Q1FY14 against the tgt of 106.88 MnT.
  • (-VE) ONGC: In a setback to ONGC Videsh, the Kazakhstan government has decided to exercise its pre-emptive rights to acquire US-based ConocoPhillips's 8.4% interest in the giant Kashagan oilfield that the Indian company was eying.
  • (+VE) DEFENCE: The govt may allow up to 100% foreig n direct investment in defence units located in special economic zones on a case-to-case basis.
  • (+VE) GOLD: India's gold imports in June are estimated to have fallen drastically to 35-40 tn from a record high of 162 tn in May.
  • (+VE) POWER: The recent Cabinet decision on coal cost pass-through should enable quick clearance to nine power plant projects, which will be considered today by the Cabinet Committee on Investment.
  • (+VE) ADANI PORTS AND SEZ: Has formed a JV with Switzerland-based MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co to operate its container terminal at Mundra port.
  • (+VE) AMBUJA CEMENTS: Holcim plans to carry out a substantial restructuring of Indian operations that could include a much-anticipated merger between it and ACC.
  • (+VE) DB CORP: Has sold its entire 51% stake in Divya Prabhat Publications.
  • (+VE) HIKAL: Has signed a long-term supply contract with a global bio-pharma company.
  • (+VE) RCOM: Is close to selling over 80% stake in direct-to-home operation arm Reliance Digital to Sun TV for around 25 bln rupees.
  • (+VE) SAIL: Produced 3.2 mln tn of saleable steel in Apr-Jun, 6% higher than last year.
  • (+VE) TATA POWER: Announced that it has achieved financial closure for its 95 MW Tsitsikamma wind farm project in South Africa through Cennergi--its 50:50 joint venture with Exxaro Resources.

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