The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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Market Mantra
In the mid-market newsletter to the Paid Group members, a buy on Housing Development & Infrastructure Limited (HDIL) was reteirated at Rs.42.  HDIl, has taken a decision to sell the 70 acres of‘HMT land’ at Kalamassery, Kerala. HDIL has published advertisements in two newspapers stating that  in Kalamassery is “available for sale/joint venture”. Now the point is that: The HDIL had bought the land parcel for Rs.91 crores in 2006. Now the organization is reportedly trying to sell an acre of land for 8 (eight) crores. So, the total package now comes to around Rs.560 Cr, which is a huge premium to the buy price. The company has debt of around Rs.3700 Cr, which is expected to get reduced substantially, if this land deal goes through. Buy at Rs.42, T--Rs.54, SL--Rs.37.  
The IVRCL Ltd today moved to Rs.19.60, before trading now at Rs.19.30. Recently, a brokerage house has given a target of Rs.55 for the scrip. Hence, buy the stock on all declines and keep holding.  Also, accumulate, ARSS Infra Ltd at Rs.26.90 for a target of Rs.34. Any CRR cut or Repo cut would be positive for the Banking and Real Estate/Construction Sectors. The RBI has already cut 125 basis points since the rate cut has started, but the commercial banks are still to allow full transmission. Therefore, the real estate/construction sector looking good for investments. It seems from the morning trade that both the Glodyne Tech (CMP: Rs.10.99) and Suzlon Ltd (Rs.10.98) has more or less bottomed out.
Following is the gist of the message sent to the Paid Group and to those who are trading through my recommended brokerage  houses today:  A gap down opening is seen today amid weak global cues. Inability to hold the level of 6100 and a close below 6000 mark shows weakness among Bulls. Market during the last few trading sessions has shown extreme volatility at higher levels, denoting uncertainty and fear among the trader community. However, there are initial signs of this market bottoming out. Nifty-Future Longs may be taken at 5910, with a SL of 5882 (which is the trend deciding factor) for a target of 5970--5990. The fact that Nifty_Futures got support in the band of  5895-5882, could give new confidence to the bulls. After this message the Nifty_Futures touched 5944. 45 and is now trading at 5933 above the resistance zone of 5928.
Nifty_Spot Resistance: 5950 / 5975
Nfity_Spot Support: 5880 / 5850.
THEREFORE, JOIN THE PAID SERVICE OR JOIN MY RECOMMENDED BROKERAGE HOUSES TO MINIMIZE YOUR LOSSES AND TO MAKE MONEY FROM THE MARKETS. In these kinds of market, where even the experts are finding difficulty to make money, it would NOT be prudent for the general investors to take a plunge, simply by hearing the market men on various television channel. 

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