The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason

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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence RBI Policy Decoded The Repo Rate Hike: Inflation Gave the Cover, the Rupee Gave the Reason The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. With the rupee at ₹96.78 to the dollar, the Fed at 3.75–4.00 percent and bank credit growing near 18 percent, the fuller story is bigger than August CPI of 4.8 percent. The Reserve Bank of India raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 percent on 7 October 2026. It is the first hike since February 2023, and the stance has moved from neutral to calibrated tightening. The rate decision was unanimous. The Governor cited inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee said the inflation outlook is no longer as comfortable as it was last year, and near-term rate cuts were taken off the table. That is the official story, and it is not wrong. But it is incomplete. Look at what surrounds the decision: a rupee near its record...
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After Market Opening Chart Check
The markets yesterday as witnessed the rally for second day. Although, Nifty went down to 5770 during intraday correction, sustained buying pulled it up to 5855, finally giving a close at 5850 with a gain of 50 points.
Market has bounced back strongly from the support of 5700. The initial downside target of 5680 was achieved. Today, the Nifty_Spot is still trading above the level of 5810, which does not negate this upmove. MACD and Mass Index are in buy mode and oscillators are still in the oversold territories. Therefore, the rally is expected to continue albeit with some intra-day, corrections or bouts of profit booking. This rally is expected to take Nifty back to 5900-5950 once again.
Resistance: 5870 / 5900 (Nifty_Spot)
Support: 5810 / 5790 (Nifty_Spot)
The US markets ended up on Monday ahead of the two-day meet of the US Federal Open Market Committee, which will begin today. US Fed will give the time frame on withdrawal of its bond buying programme.
Most Asian indices were choppy ahead of the meet, but is slowly recovering from the blues.
Meanwhile, the RBI left the key policy rates unchanged citing inflation concerns on the backdrop of weakening INR. Not surprisingly post the policy announcement, the Nifty-50 Index actually went up to finally end with a gain of 0.72% or 41.65 points at 5850.05, confirming that the policy outcome was more than discounted into the prices. Later on, the weak trade data also failed to dent the sentiments. The May-13 trade deficit stood at $20.1bn vs $18.9bn last year on high gold, silver imports ($8.3bn vs $ 4.4bn). It will be interesting to see the June-13 data, which may be slightly better post the steps taken to curb gold imports.
Fundamentally speaking, today, Indices are trading flat amidst mixed cues from overseas markets and would continue to do so, in absence of any major trigger. The outcome of US FOMC meet is expected to provide further cues on the near term movement of the market.
Stocks to watch for today’s trade:
•(+VE) TELECOM: India's telecom regulator on Monday cut roaming tariffs, but shied away from allowing free national roaming services in a move that gives a breather to a bleeding telecom industry in the world's second largest telecom market.
•(+VE) GMR INFRASTRUCTURE: The anti-corruption commission of Maldives has said there was no corruption involved in leasing of Ibrahim Nasir International Airport to thecompany. CMP: Rs.19.85.
•(+VE) STERLITE INDUSTRIES: The company's copper smelter unit, which was shut for two months, resumed operations on Monday after the National Green Tribunal's expert panel gave a green signal. CMP: Rs.81.85.
Southern Online Bio Tech Ltd was given a buy at Rs.2.40, some months back (probably 4-5 months). The scrip today hit the upper circuits at Rs.9.56. You can calculate the return over, such a short term. Therefore, equity markets do give returns to patient investors, over a period. 
Glodyne Tech Ltd could hit the Buyer Freeze today at Rs.9.97.  The company's overseas operations have started to do well and a weak rupee might help them in a large way in terms of overseas revenues.

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