Housing Development Infrastructure Ltd (HDIL): Rationale Behind My Recommendation

CMP: Rs.49.15

(i) If you carefully observe the video below, you find that Mr.Hariprakash Pandey, VP-Finance, HDIL is saying that the company's debt as compared to December, 2012 has come down by Rs.200 Cr and there are no plans for further dilution of the stake by the promoters. HDIL was once Mumbai's (Bombay's) largest company by market cap in the Real Estate Sector.

(ii) Some of its short term borrowing have been replaced by long term ones. Hence, this is expected to bring much relief, in terms of  solving short term financial pressures. Moreover, the company is servicing its debt as per schedule.

(iii) The company continues to get better realizations from the sale of its projects. During Q3FY13 quarter, the Company launched the Second phase of Virar Residency Park at Virar (Mumbai Metropolitan Area).

(iv) The promoters could initiate a BUY BACK of SHARES of the COMPANY, from the end of June, 2013, as 6 months statutory period (after the selling of the shares by the promoters), will be over, within a few weeks from now.

(v) The interest rates are further set to go down and price of commodities are expected to come down further or remain within a range. Fall in crude price would also keep the price of diesel in check, which will further add to the bottomlines of Real Estate Companies, who use heavy equipments (which are run on diesel) for construction. All these factors are positive for the real estate companies. Besides, the Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Friday, "India Inc should stop looking abroad and focus on tapping huge investment opportunities within the country, especially in the infrastructure sector, which offers long-term benefits". This is also seen as positive for all the stocks in the Real Estate Sector. 

(vi) The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.239.53 and 9MEPS stands at Rs.8.43 on a consolidated basis. Now considering its market cap of only Rs.2059.40 Cr and its P/E of 4.08 against the industry average of 18.36, we can safely put a target of Rs.122-125, for the scrip in the immediate short term (2-3 months).

Note: I am still reeling under multiple (orthopedic) injuries on my body, after a nasty fall. I have therefore, tried to update this blog very briefly, and to the best of my abilities. It will perhaps take some more time before my wounds get healed, satisfactorily.