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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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Market Mantra
Buy Nifty_Futures at 5670, T--5740, SL--5650. The momentum oscillators are now highly oversold and at the same time, the Nifty spot is now near an important support levels.
Buy IVRCL Ltd at Rs.18, T--Rs.26 and SL--Rs.16. The infrastructure sector is expected to pick up in the last week of this month (March, 2013). According to media reports, putting a finish to the face-off between the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) and Ministry of Environment & Forests (MOEF), the latter has delinked environmental and forest clearances in case of all linear projects like roads, rail tracks, transmission lines. The Supreme Court (SC) Forest Bench previous week allowed the MoEF to modify the 2011 norms, which were based on the apex court's verdict in the Lafarge case. Modifying its September 9, 2011 guidelines, the MoEF has issued a fresh office memorandum, dated March 19, 2013, saying that pending forest and environment clearance to a linear project may be granted, provided it is 'explicitly certified' by the user agency that in case the forest clearance for the non-forest use of forest land falling in the alignment does not come by, the user agency will shift to a "technically feasible" alternative alignment that will not intrude on forest land. For projects involving widening or expansion of existing national highways, while work will be permitted to start on non-forest land, the user agency has been asked to submit an undertaking stating that in case forest clearance is denied for expansion of the highway where it traverses through forest land the road along forest portions will not be widened and maintained at existing width. The road transport ministry has been at loggerheads with the MoEF over alleged delays in granting of clearance and blamed it for slow development in projects worth over INR 2,000 crore. With GMR recently terminating the concession contract with NHAI for the 555 kilometer (km) Kishangarh-Udaipur-Ahmedabad project over delayed environmental and forest clearances, things worsened between the 2 ministries.

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