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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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IVRCL Ltd: Good Bet at the Current Price
CMP: Rs.19
The cash starved, infrastructure company IVRCL Ltd is looking to sell some of its project and assets to meet the working capital requirements. The company's share price is currently ruling at Rs.19, which is absurd considering the Book Value of Rs.73.98. According to my close sources, some large business groups like Tata group has come come to buy some of its BOT projects. The company is hoping to generate around Rs.1500 Cr from such sale. Over and above the company is also looking at selling some of its assets in the form of land banks to generate another Rs.1000 Cr. The total Rs.2500 (approx) will be initially used for meeting working capital requirements for serving its humungous order book of around Rs.22, 500 Cr (Twenty two thousand five hundred crore).
Moreover, with RBI going in for the repo rate cut last week, its interest burden will come down to some extent. The interest forms a major part of any project and a small fluctuation, can affect the net operating margins of any infrastructure company. 
The sources, said, that earlier they used to get the loans at around 8.5 % per year but now they are getting at around 12.5% per year, which though is affecting their margin but a downward interest rate trajectory, is positive for the infrastructure companies.
Once the working capital requirements are fulfilled, then the company would be able to service it huge order book of around Rs.22, 500 Cr (twenty two thousand five hundred crore), which is 3.64 times the FY12 earnings. The company is working out to get some loans from banks, according to the sources. The company is talking all steps to revive the company and hence I am expecting the share to touch Rs.31-32 (50 DSMA) in the next 3-4 months time frame. The Q4FY13, results of the company are expected to be better than Q3FY13.

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