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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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Chinese manufacturing picks up in April: HSBC
Buy Reliance Industries Ltd at Rs.736-739, T--Rs.775, SL-Rs.720.
China's manufacturing activity gained momentum in April but remains below the boom-or-bust level, according to a reading of the manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI) released by HSBC on Monday.
China "flash" manufacturing PMI — an early estimate of the measure, which estimates the manufacturing sector's overall health — hit a two-month high of 49.1 in April, up slightly from 48.3 in March, according to HSBC. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
"Since the April flash PMI ticked higher, this suggests that previous easing measures have started to work and should therefore ease concerns of a sharp growth slowdown," said Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China and co-head of Asian Economic Research at HSBC. "In an historical context, the pace of both output and demand growth has remained at a low level and the job market is under pressure. This calls for additional easing measures in the coming months. We expect monetary and fiscal easing to speed up in the second quarter," Qu said.
HSBC's preliminary figure for the PMI is calculated based on 85%-90% of the total responses to HSBC's monthly PMI survey, and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading. The National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing are expected to release official PMI data for April on May 1. The official data are based on a survey of purchasing managers in more than 820 companies in 20 industries.
The official results were not in line with the HSBC reading last month, suggesting different outlooks for China's manufacturing activity. The official figure beat the expectations of most analysts and jumped to 53.1 in March, 2.1 points higher than a month earlier. HSBC placed China's final March PMI at 48.3, representing a decline for five consecutive months.
Qu attributed the difference between the official and HSBC readings to different survey samples and methods of seasonal adjustment. The calculation of the official PMI index covers more than 800 enterprises, including more state-owned and large enterprises, while HSBC's poll includes around 400 small and medium firms.

Courtesy: Xinhua

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