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SumanSpeaks Independent Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence POLITICAL ECONOMY | PART 1: THE TELECOM TEST The Sangh’s Costliest Blunder: Keeping Narendra Modi in the Chair After Demonetisation and a Trail of U-Turns Two private giants, one state-propped survivor, roughly ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced BSNL revival and support packages (spectrum allocation included), and ₹1.41 lakh crore of AGR dues still on the books: telecom shows what happens when one man’s brand becomes the party’s only policy. This is an argument against Narendra Modi, not against the BJP. SYNOPSIS India’s telecom market has narrowed from a messy but real plurality into two dominant private networks, one weak private survivor kept alive by government equity, and a public operator that has needed about ₹3.22 lakh crore in announced support packages and spectrum allocations, not all of it cash. The 2010 spectrum auctions that started the debt spiral were a UPA-era event, and we say so plainly. But a ...
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Market Mantra:
(i) Buy Nifty futures at 5510, T--5580, SL--5491. The IIP Numbers is just a misnomer, because the things already happened in the past and the  markets have already factored that.....Also, people knew there is a slowdown going on (and hence there is as such no surprise) and the inflation is expected to come down in future. The RBI might not raise the interest rates in the next meet at the end of this month. There are chances that the in future the growth could again start because: (a) The crude is falling (ii) the interest rate could come down (iv) the commodity prices are coming down......So, the picture is bullish and not bearish...hence don't get carried away by some stray news...!!
(ii) The markets took positive cues from the removal of the environmental ministers Mr.Jairam Ramesh, which has already been mentioned in Facebook and Yahoo Messanger. This would have positive effect on metal/mining and renewable energy counters. Already Coal India Ltd is moving up. 
(iii) The results of Infosy Technologies Ltd is neutral and hence should not have too much effect on the markets or on IT Counters. 
(iv) The Nifty futures should not break 5503 on the closing basis and hence you are sitting on a  pretty safe field. 
(v) The markets could surprise us and move at a much higher than what it is trading now, 5510-5508.
(vi) The Crude prices are expected not to move up in the near term basically due to two factors: (a) the US releasing crude oil from its reserves and (b) there is demand destruction both from China and India due to slowing down of their economies.
(vii) Buy Jai Corp Ltd at Rs.122, T--Rs.132 and HDIL at Rs.160, T--Rs.175, SL--Rs.155 and Vikash Metal and Power Ltd at Rs.11.70, T--Rs.17, SL--Rs.10.50. 
(viii) The European market and Dow Jones are also expected to recover going forward. 
(ix) Buy Rolta Ltd at Rs. 126, T--Rs.135, SL--Rs.117. 
(x) Valuations are not extremely cheap, but they are at a level where some of the negatives may be in the price, says Suresh Mahadevan of UBS Securities. 

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