SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

Will the October, 2008 carnage in the markets be repeated??!! 1. A sharp correction in the markets is imminent and hence book your profits and exit the market for the time being. The levels of entry will be mentioned to the Paid Groups. The Premium Members were asked to book profits in most of the counters in the Sunday Report. I think most of them have booked out profits and stitting with hard cash. Last year October was very bad and it spoiled DIWALI celebration of many investors as the Sensex crashed from 13203 to 7647. International markets also had same impact. Could the same thing be repeated this year also?? 2. Those who are holding Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd might witness, it make new 52-week highs in the days to come. One of the noted web-sites on media has reportedly asked his chief correspondent to make a story on the company, after finding the latest on the Channel Story. The company earlier got approval for an entertainment channel. However, news channel will be...

Limited room for more fiscal stimulus: PM Micro Technologies Ltd recommended around Rs.120, closed at Rs.166.25, a gain of around 30% in just 45 days. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today admitted that his government had limited options on the question of accelerating fiscal stimulus measures. When asked if the G-20 declaration against any premature withdrawal of stimulus measures gave the Indian government some leeway, Singh said his options were limited. On fiscal policy, he said there was the fear of widening deficit and on the monetary policy front, the fear of a rise in inflation had reduced the central bank’s manoeuvrability on interest rates. The prime minister addressed the media at the conclusion of the G-20 Summit here that endorsed many of the proposals put forward by the Indian government while keeping climate change negotiations outside its purview. A cheerful Singh, who turned 77 on September 26, said there was no economic crisis in India. “Our exports and growth suffered,...

Exide Industries Ltd (CMP: Rs.89.05): Basking on the Auto Sector boom: Buy only in a correction....Book Profits now... Exide Industries Ltd is expected to benefit from the better‐than‐expected pick‐up in the car sales (I have earlier mentioned about Refex Refrigerants Ltd on this issue). In the original equipment (OE) sector, demand is weak in the truck‐bus, tractor, and multi‐utility vehicle segments (Not so good news for the shareholders of Sicagen India Ltd). However, the recent turnaround of the passenger car segment and a robust growth in sales of two‐wheelers will contribute to the sales growth of the company (Good news for the share holders of Refex Refrigerants Ltd). With a likely turnaround in the auto sector, Exide plans to spend around Rs.100 crore to create more capacity given that it is already using about 90 per cent of its facilities. Exide has facilities in Shyamnagar and Haldia in West Bengal, Hosur in Karnataka, Chinchwad and Taloja in Maharashtra and Bawal in Haryan...

Brokerage Report: With Edition: Cement price set to decline: The first sign of oversupply in India's Southern region and its impact on cement prices post incremental capacity addition of 20mn tones during FY09 and Q1FY10 in the region, have been witnessed. On pan India basis, industry have added around 30mn tones in FY09 and 15mn tones in Q1FY10 and is expected to further add 30mn tones in H2FY10 which will exert downward pressure on cement prices, most likely from Q4FY10. While we can expect overall capacity utilization for the industry to drop from 95% in FY07 to 75% by FY10 and cement price would correct around 4% in Q4FY10 and 7% in FY11. We can thus expect the impending oversupply coupled with declining trend in cement price would have a negative effect on the stocks, and hence we maintain our underperformer rating for the sector. Over-supply in southern region: Cement industry has increased the price by around Rs. 20/bag across regions except for southern region where price...

Winning Strokes: Think Different: Yes, RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD saved a steep fall in the markets as was mentioned in the mid-market mail/report to the Paid Groups. RIL had signed a natural gas sales pact with NTPC Ltd, to supply 0.61 million cubic metres a day (mmscmd) of gas. But what were the Premium Members and Portfolio Management Service (PMS) clients, asked to do in the markets today?? Book profits or buy on dips??!! Remembers the TV commentators who are often very good in giving wrong advice to the investors/traders are advocating a buy on dips strategy....But then what should be the real strategy to be followed at least in the large caps??!! Another good news which also helped today's markets is the news that BHEL has bagged a Rs.365 crore order from the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited for supply of four steam generators for India's second 700 MW nuclear power station, being set up at Rajasthan Atomic Power Project, Kota. Among the aberrations in the markets ...

India - Silk park planned at Kancheepuram Union Textiles Minister Dayanidhi Maran on Wednesday said the government would consider setting up of an integrated textile park exclusively for the silk industry at Kancheepuram. He gave the assurance when an eight-member delegation of the Kancheepuram silk industry, led by Member of Parliament representing Kancheepuram P.Viswanathan. The government has so far sanctioned 40 textile parks in different parts of the country and 15 more are in the pipeline. Of the sanctioned parks, 10 are in Maharashtra, seven in Gujarat, six each in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, four in Rajasthan and two each in Punjab and West Bengal and one each in Karnataka, Assam and Madhya Pradesh. The parks are intended to provide the industry with world-class infrastructure to meet international environmental and social standards and each would normally have 50 units. India - Road projects to create a Rs.2,128-crore market for geotech industry by 2012 news: Major benefic...

India emerging as a manufacturing hub for cars: The four-door hatchback will be built in Chennai where the company has invested $500 million to double the capacity of an existing plant to 200,000 units a year. This is very good news for Sicagen India Ltd (to some extent at it sells commercial vehicles) and Refex Refrigerants Ltd (who sells refrigerant gases to the auto and consumer durable companies)... London: India is emerging as an auto manufacturing centre with Ford also choosing to manufacture its new small car Figo here- the latest in the new wave of small cars to be built in the country by foreign car makers. The four-door hatchback will be built in Chennai where the company has invested $500 million to double the capacity of an existing plant to 200,000 units a year, the Times reported. It will be sold both in India, which has a 250 million plus middleclass, and overseas. The company, which had incurred losses to the tune of $30 billion between 2006 and 2008, hopes that the yo...

Markets may rise further in the next 6 months My recommended Kisan Mouldings Ltd at Rs.25-Rs.26, last month, hit the buyer freeze today as it closed at Rs.46.05 So what should be our strategy now??!! This portion is only for the Paid Groups and Portfolio Management Service Clients..... NEW YORK: Given that US stocks have rallied nearly 60 percent in just six months, you'd expect valuations were getting a bit prohibitive. Why realty is good investment. But the resiliency of the latest rally shows that investors are unfazed by the market's current multiples, regarding stocks as still relatively cheap. With interest rates close to zero, earnings expected to improve in the third quarter, and inflation subdued, stock market bulls have much working in their favor, making it likely that the market will rise further in the next six months. The Dow Jones industrial average is nearing 10,000, a far cry from its closing low of 6,547.05 in March. The benchmark S&P 500 .SPX -- up nearly...

Worst of global recession behind us: Google CEO: Now Google is telling what I mentioned 4 (four) months back...... W S Industries Ltd recommnded to the Paid Groups, in this Sunday Report, moved to Rs.48.70, before cooling down a bit. The stock was recommended at Rs.44.4. Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd almost hit the buyer freeze on some positive developments in the counter. The stock was earlier asked to be accumulated at Rs.4 Rs.4.25 range. The company got the permission for setting up an entertainment channel. This is in addition to the other channels whose approval the company already received. PITTSBURGH: Google Inc Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said acquisitions are "turned on again" at the Internet company and expects to do one small deal a month instead of hiring new staff. Schmidt also reiterated his view that the worst of the global recession is over, seeing improvement both inside and outside the United States. "It's clear that the worst is behind u...

'Enjoy the Asian asset bubble while it lasts' Hong Kong: Monetary policy in the West will remain easy in response to anaemic economic growth, but the prime beneficiary of this will be investors in Asia, where asset prices will boom -- and likely even get bubbly, says CLSA equity strategist Chris Wood. "We're going to witness an extended period of weak, sub-par growth in the West, forcing governments to keep their interest rates low," says Wood. "My base case is that monetary policy in the West will remain easy, which will be way too easy for Asia." This, he reckons, is the trigger for "overwhelming probability of Asian equity outperformance, leading potentially to Asian asset bubbles." It's likely that Asian central banks will not tighten pre-emptively, which gives investors an opportunity to ride the bubble for a while. China and India, in his estimation, remain great long-term growth stories, and the two nations have "for all practic...

"I like commercial air-conditioning business": Mr.Samir Aurora: It is to be noted that Mr. Samir Arora runs Singapore based Helios Capital and is known for his candid talk. This is from one of his interviews, with a Television Channel, some months back. I like commercial airconditioning business for I believe that this is the best way to play creation of urban infrastructure- malls/IT parks/airports/hotels/high rise office blocks etc all need a much higher proportion of commercial airconditioning content. We own the leader in a significant way (also because of its international business and other segments). I liked real estate sector earlier this year as the stocks were discounting serious liquidity issues- which starting disappearing as companies raised capital. I do not like mid cap real estate companies and I do not consider normal companies which have some valuable piece of land as real estate companies. Also, in many such cases where a normal company has some real est...

Refex Refrigerants Ltd: Some Thoughts: 1. Refex Refrigerants Ltd is the only player in the country which has the distinction of refilling and marketing hydrofluorocarbons, which is a non-ozone depleting, environmentally safe refrigerant developed to replace chloro-flouro-carbons in several air conditioning and refrigeration applications. Refex is also planning a big push of HFC gas cans for car air-conditioners. Refex earlier launched HFC gas in cans. All air-conditioned cars need to change gas once in 24 months. With this initiative the cost will come down by 50% for the car owner. Refex Refrigerants Ltd has applied for Carbon Credits and hopes to get the same from the international authorities. But there is an arugment here: It is well known that the companies like Guj Fluoro/Navin Fluorine being manufacturers of HFC can claim carbon credits however, since Refex just imports and packages them, there is a question mark regarding its approval of getting Carbon Credits, from Internation...

SEL to set up Technical Textile Park in Himachal Pradesh SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd has informed that the Company is setting up a Technical Textile Park in the State of Himachal Pradesh for which concerned SPV has applied for the approvals from the Ministry of Textiles of Government of India for sanctioning the Project under the Scheme for Integrated Textile Park (SITP). The said project would be one shop solution for entire manufacturing process for the technical textile products which include hygiene products like wipes, diapers, sanitary napkins, panty shields and surgical clothing i.e. gloves, masks, gowns etc.The project will be setup with an Overall investment of app Rs 500.00 Crores and would cover an area of appx. 100 acres of land and is expected to generate Employment for appx. 10000 people. SEL inaugurates Greenfield Mega Integrated Textile Project SEL Manufacturing Company Limited has now added two more feathers in its cap, by inaugurating Greenfield Mega Integrated Text...

India - New cotton crop starts arriving in Gujarat and Punjab Arrival of new cotton crop has started in Gujarat and Punjab, which are daily receiving 2,000 bales and 3,000 bales respectively. However, the prices of this new cotton is lower than the last year due to poor quality of the produ ce. Marketmen are of the view that the prices will firm up as the quality cotton starts arriving in the market. Average price of cotton in Gujarat is currently quoted at Rs. 430 to Rs. 537 per 20 kg and in Gujarat, while in Punjab it is about Rs. 450 to Rs 525. Last year the price stood at Rs. 570 to Rs. 600 at the onset of the season. According to traders and brokers in Saurashtra, the quality of cotton arriving in the market at the begning of the season tends to be lower as farmers offload only those stocks which are harvested in pre-monsoon period. At present, there is not much demand in the market but it will improve after Diwali. The demand will be driven mainly by exporters. Cotton arrivals h...

India - Textile Industry optimistic about revival There is Research Report on SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd at www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com The textile industry in India is optimistic for an early revival of Growth. According to a CII Industry and Economic Update, sales and profitability of the sector, especially mills and Textile and Clothing units, could improve from the lows of 2008, as some fabric and garment production u nits have reported a modest pick-up in international demand. This is expected to translate into higher demand for spun yarns. While spinners are reporting a slightly slack demand for cotton and polyester cotton yarns, polyester viscose yarn manufacturers continue to receive export orders. The textile sector's financial performance was adversely impacted by the rupee appreciation in 2008, which made Indian Textile and Clothing (TandC) exports uncompetitive. Also, there is a gradual slowdown in the growth of cotton consumption caused by declining export sal...

Chart Check: Excerpts of my mail to the Paid Groups: Investors can accumulate SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd (BSE Code: 532886) at Rs.72--Rs.73 for a target of Rs.190--Rs.210 in the next 3 to 4 months time frame. The textile sector is picking up after having recovered from the downturn. There are some good news coming from the company... Yesterday, the markets traded in sideways fashion after a momentary breach of 5000 levels on the NIfty. Action was witnessed in the midcap and and small cap section of the spectrum with a clear positive bias. 4859-4900 in case of Nifty should give it necessary cushion for any sharp fall. Declines to this zone may be construed as buying opportunities for participating in this medium to long term up trend. XXXX seems to be the next logical target for Nifty and should come in this leg of rally. However, on the flip side Nifty has a stiff intermittent resistance posted at XXXX. Therefore given the positive long-term trend, investors should keeping holding o...