Wesbury: The Economy Is Much Stronger Than the Media Says

There's a growing consensus the economy will start growing again later this year but 2010 will be characterized by sub-par growth. That consensus is wrong, according to Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisers, who believes there will be a V-shaped recovery.

"If you're optimistic today people look at you like you've got three eyes," Wesbury jokes. But as detailed in a recent Forbes column he predicts real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) GDP will be 3.5% in the second half of 2009 and 4.5% in 2010, based in part on the following:

• A "super easy" Fed and increased government spending (remember, the bulk of the stimulus package hits next year and 2011).
• The end of the panic in credit markets, leading to an increase in the velocity of money.
• A pending bottom in home building, continued declines in the trade deficit, a return (albeit modest) of consumer spending and improving business inventories.

By his own admission, Wesbury was too optimistic heading into 2008 and so you might chalk this up to him being bullish by nature. Still, he makes a compelling case that a lot of powerful interests - from liberals hoping for more government spending to conservatives seeking to criticize President Obama to short sellers and (yes) the media - have incentives to put a negative spin on the economy, rather than a positive one.

It's something to think about because if we can count on anything, it's that the consensus will most likely be wrong.

Note: My mom (mother) is currenly suffering from a special type of bacterial infection (with high mortality rate), viz. Mycobacteria Other Than Tuberculosis (MOTT); may be due to high intensity of blood transfusion done, after the detection of Cancer and subsequent treatments..... The point to be noted is that Mycobacterium other than Tuberculosis causes human disease but do not cause tuberculosis. Mycobacterium other than Tuberculosis is a category II disease and is rare diseases. Every year in the United States approximately two people per 100,000 population develop infections caused by these lesser-known “cousins” of tuberculosis. In fact, data suggest that there may be rising numbers of cases in certain parts of the country.

However, unlike tuberculosis, which is spread from person to person, MOTT infections are not considered contagious. There is no evidence that the infection can be transmitted from one person to another. Just how and why people become infected with MOTT is not clear.

Like tuberculosis, an MOTT infection primarily affects the lungs and the symptoms are similar. MOTT infections progress slowly....

Symptoms may include:

· Fever

· Weight loss

· Cough

· Lack of appetite

· Night sweats

· Blood in the sputum (phlegm)

· Loss of energy.

It is worth mentioning that earlier, one of the Paid Members (and member of Yahoo Group, SumanSpeaks) Dr.Atul Saxena in one of the intense late night chats, some months back, expressed apprehensions that symptoms that time were like tuberculosis. He advised me to contact the doctors immediately, pending which the things could go out of control. Yesterday it she was diagnosed to a MOTT case; after performing more than 50 tests, some highly sophisticated ones; done over 45 days. Thanks to Dr.Saxena for at least coming close to the actual findings.

In this circumstances I shall be highly obliged if any Pharmacologist, Doctor, Microbiologist, etc, can forward me some latest informations on MOTT or on how to eradicated the mycobacteria or some useful materials regarding this bacterium, to my e-mail addresses (suman2005s@rediffmail.com and some are mentioned on the left side panel of this blog). This might help me to know the latest line of treatment or can forward the same to the consulting physicians (or team of physicians) under whose treatments she is presently under. This might further help them to pin point the line of treatment.

Since the disease is rare hence there are not much research material and case study materials available in the public domain. I a bit worried because the mortality rate is very high in MOTT. Thanks in advance for your help and co-operation.