WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

[Yes this time also I am correct as the bulls swung into action. The Paid Members were asked to give a pass to the 1st half of the market and get confirmation in the 2nd half. The things happened according to "Copy Book Style". Those who copied the style of Television Analysts or most of the Brokerage Houses, were "Poor Loosers".....

It is again proved that, if you take investment/trading decisions purely based on Charts without giving it a "Human-touch" of your experience, then your destruction (you becoming a beggar) is a foregone conclusion...It was a very difficult call during the market hours on last Thursday, when most of the analysts on a number of Business Channels were talking of 4100 on Nifty---but market does not behave according these band of analysts; who I have seen in most of the occassions are more wrong than right. But the irony is that many investors follow them to the book, without understanding that stock market investment is a purely different concept..I was more or less convinced that 4200 on Nifty would act as a strong support and this happened.

So how will the markets behave on Monday and what to do with the existing stocks......or where to park your money...These portions are only for the Paid Groups]

The key benchmark indices snapped last two days' losses tracking higher European stocks and gains in US index futures. But volatility was immense. The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 256.36 points or 1.8%, up close to 340 points from the day's low and off close to 40 points from the day's high. A series of measures by the market regulator to attract investors and boost confidence in the stock market aided the rally. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries recovered after last four days' heavy losses. Metal, capital goods and realty stocks surged.

However, the market snapped a winning streak of 14 weeks. The BSE Sensex lost 716.05 points or 4.70% to 14,521.89 and the S&P CNX Nifty declined 269.80 points or 5.88% to 4313.60 in the week ended Friday, 19 June 2009.

Coming back to today's trade, the market breadth improved in late trade. The breadth had turned weak in afternoon trade in contrast to a positive breadth in early trade.

Volatility was immense. After opening firm on higher Asian stocks, the market came sharply off the higher level. The market bounced back soon with the Sensex hitting fresh intraday high in mid-morning trade. The market pared gains later. It firmed up again in early afternoon trade. A sell-off pulled the market to the day's low in afternoon trade. The market came off the lower level in mid-afternoon trade. The market extended gains in late trade.

European shares edged higher on Friday, with banks rising, but carmaker Porsche falling after its results, and following overnight gains in the United States. Key benchmark indices in France, and UK were up by between 0.91% to 1.68%. Germany's DAX was flat.

Asian stocks snapped a four-day slide on Friday after upbeat US factory and jobs data provided more evidence that the global economy is recovering from its deep recession. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.55% to 1.61%.

The World Bank yesterday raised its growth forecast for China to 7.2% in 2009, from an earlier prediction of 6.5%.

Trading in the US index futures indicated Dow could rise 52 points at the opening bell today, 19 June 2009.

US markets rose on Thursday, 18 June 2009, after the New York- based Conference Board said its leading economic index rose 1.2% last month, exceeding the 1% gain estimated by economists. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index jumped to the highest level in nine months. The Dow Jones industrials rose 58.42 points, or 0.7%, to 8,555.60. The S&P 500 index added 7.66 points, or 0.8%, to 918.37. But the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 0.34 points, or less than 0.1%, to 1,807.72.

In other economic data in US, even as initial weekly jobless claims nudged higher, continuing claims dropped for the first time since January this year, to 6.69 million.

Closer home, the Indian government is reportedly examining a proposal to enhance accelerated depreciation benefits on companies' investment in new plant and machinery. If accepted, it could give a fillip to fresh investment in productive capital goods, largely plant and machinery, as companies can reduce their tax outgo in that year. At present, the normal depreciation rate for plant and machinery is at 15% but in the first year in which the investment is made, companies have the option of claiming accelerated depreciation of 35%.

Meanwhile, the stock market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Thursday unveiled a series of measures to attract investors and boost confidence in the stock market. The market regulator approved the "anchor investor" concept under which an investor can subscribe to up to 30% of the quota for institutional investors in an initial public offering. This is in response to the requests of issuers that there was a need for investors with prior commitment who will enhance their ability to sell the issue and bring more confidence.

Sebi has also decided to rationalise disclosure in the rights issues offer documents as information relating to the listed company offering such an issue was already available in public domain for investors. The revised disclosure would make the process of rights issue faster for companies and also reduce overall costs for such issues.

The market regulator also said entry load for investments in mutual funds would be removed, which is expected to result in increased participation. It would also cut registration fees for market intermediaries by about 50%.

Interest rates are falling thanks to ample liquidity in the banking system, low headline inflation which has now slipped into negative zone and a loose monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of India. However, inflation may rise if oil and metal prices which have risen sharply in 2009 continue to rally.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee last Wednesday said banks should provide credit at reasonable rates to spur growth, saying cuts in official rates by the Reserve Bank of India had not been passed on.

Meanwhile, the data on advance tax payments reported this week for the first quarter of the financial year indicated banks and fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) firms have done well in the first quarter, but realty companies continue to perform badly. Automobile sector have also paid higher taxes this year, show the revenue department's initial estimates. Indian companies paid around Rs 23,000 croe in advance tax for the first quarter of FY 2010, almost flat at the previous year's receipts.

Foreign funds have sold shares in the last four days after aggressively buying during the past three months or so. Foreign funds sold shares totaling Rs 1,685.70 crore in four trading sessions from 15 June 2009 to 18 June 2009. FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 4,446.50 crore (till 18 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 25,765.90 crore (till 18 June 2009).

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee would present the Union Budget on 6 July 2009. The Railway Budget will be presented on 3 July 2009 and the Economic Survey would be presented on 2 July 2009.

Indian stocks have soared in the past three months on a view that ample global liquidity and a return of risk appetite will help India Inc help raise funds for expansion which in turn will boost corporate profits. India Inc has already raised almost Rs 5,000 crore from three qualified institutional placements (QIPs) so far in 2009 and announced plans to raise another Rs 20,000 crore.

A comfortable victory last month for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in elections for the 15th Lok Sabha has raised hopes for economic reforms. Reforms virtually came to a halt in the past five years of the Congress-led alliance government at the centre, when the Communists provided support to the government from outside for a large part of the five-year term. Left parties are opposed to economic reforms.

Investor expectations from the new government are high. Investors expect financial sector reforms such as increase in the cap on foreign direct investment in insurance sector to 49%, from 26% at present.

Unveiling the agenda of the government, President Pratibha Patil in her speech addressed to a joint session of both houses early this month had indicated government's intension to divest stake in state-run firms. The government, however, intends to retain control over state-run firms and will continue to hold at least 51% stake. But some investors are concerned that the government's two key allies viz. the DMK and Trinamool Congress (TC) may oppose economic reforms.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee recently said there was a need to find ways to bring the economy back to higher growth path without increasing the fiscal deficit. He said the government would focus on infrastructure, agriculture and employment generating sectors to protect growth and jobs.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 256.36 points or 1.8% to 14,521.89. The Sensex rose 293.55 points at the day's high of 14,559.08 in late trade. At the day's low of 14,179.77, the Sensex fell 85.76 points in mid-afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 62.20 points or 1.46% to 4,313.60. Nifty June 2009 futures were at 4326, at a premium of 12.40 points as compared to the spot closing of 4313.60. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 79,597.86 crore, lower than Rs 83,936.67 crore on Thursday, 18 June 2009.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5,916 crore lower than Rs 7,163.33 crore on Thursday, 18 June 2009.

The market breadth improved in late trade. On BSE, 1,342 shares rose as compared with 1,301 shares that declined. A total of 68 shares remained unchanged. Earlier, the breadth had turned weak in afternoon trade in contrast to a positive breadth in early trade.

From the 30 share Sensex pack 24 stocks rose and rest fell.

The Sensex has jumped 4,874.58 points or 50.52% in calendar year 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex has risen 6,361.49 points or 77.95%.

Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.68% and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 0.82%. However, both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Capital Goods index (up 4.58%), the BSE Realty index (up 3.13%), the BSE Metal index (up 2.81%), the BSE IT index (up 2.32%), the BSE Bankex (up 1.82%), the BSE Power index (up 1.81%), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE PSU index (up 0.2%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 0.85%), the BSE Auto index (up 1.03%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.47%), the BSE FMCG index (up 1.66%), the BSE TECk index (up 1.69%), the BSE Healthcare index (up 1.79%), underperfomed the Sensex.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation Reliance Industries rose 0.72% to Rs 2,039.60. The stock witnessed high intraday volatility. It hit a high of Rs 2,060 and a low of Rs 1,976.50. The stock declined sharply in the past four days hit by an unfavourable court ruling on gas sales. The Bombay High Court has directed RIL and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) to sign gas supply deal.

The court has asked RIL to supply 28 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmbtu) to RRNL. This is much lower than the price fixed by the government for gas sale from the RIL block in the KG basin at $4.2 million per metric British thermal unit. The lower gas sale price will result in lower-than-expected earnings from gas sales for RIL.

RIL's advance tax payment fell 7.65% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

In January 2009, the Bombay High Court had issued an interim order saying Reliance Industries was allowed to sell gas at $4.2 per million British thermal units from its KG-D6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin off eastern India, pending a final judgment.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales ONGC fell 0.23%. ONGC's advance tax fell 33% to Rs 890.50 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Metal stocks rose after LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.54% yesterday, recovering from a four day slide. Sterlite Industries, Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries, Jindal Steel, Steel Authority of India rose by between 0.3% to 3.99%.

India's largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel rose 5.85% on reports the company has raised prices of hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils by up to 2%. Its advance tax payment fell 36.39% to Rs 230 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Capital goods stocks rose on hopes the government may boost spending on the infrastructure sector. Siemens, Thermax, BEML, ABB, Punj Lloyd, rose by between 0.18% to 6.01%.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro rose 5.71% as advance tax payment rose 15.79% to Rs 110 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) rose 2.83% after the minister of heavy industries Vilasrao Deshmukh said the government will consider selling stake in the state-run engineering firm. The government will also encourage big state engineering firms to expand globally, Deshmukh told reporters. Separately, the ministry said Bhel would sign agreements with two state utilities for power joint ventures and extend its agreement with Siemens AG for steam turbines and generators.

Reliance Infrastructure rose 5.08% on reports a consortium of the company and Hyundai Engineering is likely to win a contract worth Rs 1500 crore to connect Mumbai's Bandra-Worli sea link with Haji Ali. The formal announcement is expected in a day or two.

Separately, Reliance Infrastructure has reportedly started negotiating with domestic banks to tie up funds for the second phase of the Mumbai Metro project, though it is yet to win the contract.

Rate sensitive realty stocks rose on expectations that stability at the Centre will attract more money from foreign investors into the sector which in turn will boost growth. DLF, Omaxe, Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech rose by between 1.28% to 6.14%.

Unitech and Indiabulls Real Estate, have already raised funds through qualified institutional placements (QIPs). A number of other realty funds have decided to raised funds by way of QIPs. The promoters of DLF last month sold a 10% stake in the secondary equity markets.

Telecom stocks rose after the telecom minister said on Friday the Indian government is likely to take a decision within a week on the reserve price for the pending 3G spectrum auction. Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications and Idea Cellular rose by between 0.04% to 2.69%.

Bank stocks rose on higher advance tax payment in Q1 June 2009. Higher advance tax numbers indicate good Q1 June 2009 results. India's biggest bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India (SBI) rose 1.3%. SBI's advance tax payment rose 61.09% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008. SBI cut deposit rates across all tenors by 25 basis points with effect from 15 June 2009.

SBI chairman O.P. Bhatt recently said SBI's first priority is to absorb its associate banks. It is also looking to grow by buying domestic banks.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 1.41% even as its American depository receipt (ADR) fell 3.02% on Thursday. ICICI Bank's advance tax payment rose 7.64% to Rs 366 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank rose 2.16% as its ADR rose 2.68% on Thursday. HDFC Bank's advance tax payment rose 16.28% to Rs 250 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's biggest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) rose 0.96%.

DFC and HDFC Bank are reportedly set to reduce interest rates on term deposits by up to 0.25%.

Some cement stocks fell on recent reports that the government may hike excise duty in the forthcoming budget. ACC, Ultratech Cement, India Cements fell by between 1.02% to 1.1%.

Healthcare stocks rose on hopes the government will give primary importance to healthcare segment and health of citizens. Ranbaxy's Laboratories, Cipla, Lupin, Biocon, Sterling Biotech rose by between 0.31% to 5.43%.

Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose 0.51% after the company secured US drug regulator's nod for a generic drug.

FMCG stocks rose on hopes the government will focus on the rural sector in the forthcoming budget. FMCG firms derive substantial revenue from the rural markets. ITC, Tata Tea, Marico, Hindustan Unilever rose by between 0.05% to 3.5%.

IT stocks rose on reports the forthcoming Union Budget may extend the corporate tax holiday enjoyed by export-oriented units and software parks by three more years, as the government looks forward to clearing the air for companies in these segments reeling under a demand slump in key Western markets.

India's second largest software firm by sales Infosys Technologies rose 2.88%. Its American depository receipt (ADR) rose 0.14% on Thursday.

India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 0.29%. TCS's advance tax payment fell 33.33% to Rs 50 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008. India's third largest software services exporter by sales Wipro rose 0.78%. Its ADR fell 0.43% on Thursday.

Auto stocks rose on bargain hunting after a recent slide. India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 1.22%.

India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors rose 5.08% on recent reports the company is gearing up for a big-ticket launch of a sports utility vehicle by 2010.

But, India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra fell 0.55%. Its advance tax payment rose 25% to Rs 17.5 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Sugar stocks rose even as the government extended a ban on hoarding of sugar to check prices. Triveni Engineering, Shree Renuka Sugars, Bajaj Hindustan, Balrampur Chini rose by between 2.15% to 6.39%.

Cals Refineries clocked the highest volume of 7.4 crore shares on BSE. Unitech (2.86 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (2.42 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (2.06 crore shares) and Ispat Industries (1.94 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 283.47 crore on BSE. Suzlon Energy (Rs 269.11 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 246.02 crore), Unitech (Rs 229.91 crore) and Tata Steel (Rs 216.37 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.