WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

Beginning of the end of Bears, heralding a strong Rally:

Sugar Stocks to crash further after my message to the Paid Groups let loose the bears in this space. The Ethanol Story in Indian cannot even start due to lot of teething problems. Some well known faces on TV Channels till the other day was talking great stories on Ethanol and linking it to the Crude Oil; without understanding the fact that the Ethanol Story is a still-born concept in India due to the miscarriage of government protocols:

Crude Oil price "CRASHED" in the International Markets as expected and as mentioned on 24th May, 2008, as it was not due to "Demand Supply Gap, but due to Speculation and a trecherous cartel at play":

What happened to the Prediction of all those Indian "Technical Analysts" (Their techniques of these fell flat on the ground like most of those bogus parameters on Charts; especially an Old English Gentleman on CNBC TV 18, who predicted $148 per barrel, by looking at some figures on Charts. Now CNBC TV18, which advertises as "Only one leader.." is in great trouble!!! It seems we need to give "the only leader" a crutch to move ahead. Their TRP is going to hit an all time low within the next 12 months, and I am saying this seriously, after Times Business Comes up with Abhik Barman and some young faces; if they still do not severe their arrogant attitude) as this time also they disappointed us!! That is why I say: Never invest after hearing those faces on Television channels as most of them have some hidden agenda behind their "Great Predictions".

GO FOR GOOD PAID SERVICE WHERE YOU WILL BE GUIDED BY SOME EXPERTS AS HOW TO MAKE MONEY FROM ALL CONDITIONS. AS MAKING MONEY FROM THE STOCK MARKETS IS NOT AS EASY AS IT LOOKS. FREE SERVICE WILL ONLY GIVE YOU UNDERGARMENTS, BUT PAID SERVICE WILL DRESS YOU UP FOR THE GREAT BATTLE AHEAD. SO WHICH ONE DO U PREFER...???!!!:

Moreover, on Contrary to what Mr.Sudarshan Sukhani (At the end of some good work, this gentleman should not become over-confident and spoil his reputation) said yesterday, the Indian Markets are expected to see a rally of at least 100 points in the Opening Trade, whose momentum in the 2nd Half would depend on how the European Markets open.

I AM AGAIN REITERATING MY OLD VIEW THAT THIS TIME THERE WILL NOT BE ANY MAJOR CORRECTION IN MAY AND JUNE AND THE SENSEX SHOULD FIND A SUPPORT AT 16, 500 IN ALL CONDITION. IN FACT THE PROBABILITY OF MARKETS GOING UP IS MORE THAN GOING DOWN--Just note my words and come back here after 3 months.

U have seen how he markets rallied in May, 2008 which I predicted in Febaruary, 2008 (When most of the doom pundits were talking of gloom and gloom). All those (I do not care in which brand or banner these hapless analysts belong to....Indian or Overseas) who are speaking of lower levels are either confused with the present complex global situations or are short on the markets and is trying to fool the common investors to rake in moolah: With Oil Cartel has giving up and the US Dollar expected to become strong in the days ahead, I think we in for some good moments (except some occassional bad spells here and there as the markets cannot up continuously) and the Sensex would reach 21, 000 much earlier than most of the analysts had predicted:

Also, a request to all who read this blog and have benefitted: If anyone has made profits or have benefitted in some way or the other, after reading my humble attempts here, please canvas the name of the blog to your friends/near and dear one, so that they can also take the help of my free service and give a fitting reply to all those who proliferate on TV Channels and belch out conflicting statements day in and out for their own narrow gains. I shall be obliged if you do that and will think that my small attemps have been successful to bring in some cheers to the moods of common investors:

The following are excerpts of what I wrote about crude oil on 24th May, 2008:

Couple of days back I mentioned in this blog that Crude Oil prices in the International Markets should Crash to $100--$110 per barrel due to too much speculation going on it, instead of Demand-Supply pull. EXCERPTS OF MY MESSAGE SENT TO PAID GROUPS with some additional inputs from Various Sources: Paid Members were advised to use this dip in the market, to buy shares using the SIP Method: A Particular Counter was given stress.....What is the name of that Counter??!! [UPDATED] The Crude Oil prices are expected to crash to $100---$110 stocks per barrel. There is as such no supply constraints as regards to the global demand of 86--87 million barrels per day with only 2 to 2.5 million barrels per day as the differential. So why there is so much rise in oil price. Let me analyse a few points: 1. A fear of a weak US dollar following slowing US economy is driving the speculators towards the crude oil futures. I suspect that more than 70% is due to speculators passing paper back and forth in an unholy alliance. It will take an exogenous event to pop the bubble. Without one, the feedback loop could raise prices to $150 per barrel, within a couple of months. But if they do not succeed, then Bubble will burst taking oil to below $100 per barrel. Speculators and buyers are also playing with natural gas. Natural gas is typically stockpiled in the summer in the US when prices are lower. Big money is playing the natural gas buyers by trying to force summer purchases at winter prices. I think these things needs investigation by the world bodies and bring about regulation so that the price explosion can be checked. I am told there was a WSJ (Wall Street Journal) Story, about the FTC investigating the commodity markets in the US. THUS SPECULATION IS A BIG PROBLEM IN THE COMMODITIES MARKET. Having said that, the perception of further slowing of the US Economy is not correct or is just an optical illusion. In the real case, the situation in the US is just the opposite: the US economy is becoming stronger and hence the dollar will become strong going forward. The Bush administration's $130 million economic stimulus package is expected to give a significant boost to the economy in the second half of this year and help keep the country out of recession.The Treasury Department reported that, as of Friday, 6.2 million stimulus payments had been made over the past four weeks, totaling $4.93 billion. Officials said that figure represents the near completion of all direct deposits with the expectation that the mailing of checks will significantly increase in coming weeks as the government completes the mailing of regular tax refund checks This should boost consumerism and boost spending of the US. So why should the dollar fall further?? But, too much media pessimism about the US economy, is bringing more and more speculation in the "Crude oil Futures". Apprehensions of a falling Greenback, is pushing a growing number of investors to view commodities such as oil as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar. It is worth noting that a weaker greenback makes oil futures less expensive to investors dealing in other currencies. Many analysts see the dollar's protracted decline as one of the chief reasons for Crude oil prices to double over the past year. In the short term there could be some problems in the US economy but in the long term the US is bound to become stronger and stronger. This will pull down the Crude Oil prices as the demand-supply difference is still very minimum. OPEC will not allow the oil to rise too high or beyond a limit, because it will hurt the imports of the gulf countries which largely depends good made in foreign soils. 2. Subidised Oil in India is not curtailing its consumption in the domestic market even as the Crude Oil sky rocketed. This is a bad policy by any government to meet its vote bank needs. Thus, as soon as the prices of crude oil derivative (Petrol, Diesel, Gas etc) rises in the Indian markets (which is bound to happen sooner or later), there could be a fall in the consumption by the Indian Masses, leading to a shrinkage in demand of oil world-wide. This could pull the crude oil prices further lower. 3. Now with the reports of US citizens using lesser oil derivatives (less travelling and driving figures considering month on month basis), will further pull the price of Crude Oil down. Hence a price less $100 could be expected in just 6 months time frame. However, there are some seasonable demands at this time every years, but that should not pull up the Crude Oil prices to such astronomical levels. The rise in Oil prices is less due to demand supply equation as mentioned earlier, but more due to speculative activities-------hence bound to correct. 4. However, some Pension Funds, University Funds of US, have started putting their money in Crude Oil in the US, considering it an asset class--this could have given it a slight push upwards. But the concept is wrong as commodities cannot be considered as asset class due to too much uncertainty/volatility in them. Just consider the condition of Steel Companies in India in late 1990s and early 2000 and now. Therefore, Crude Oil cannot or does not fall in asset class and is bound to correct. 5. There are some talks that US could sell a part of its Strategic Reserves if the oil starts to rise above $150 per barrel If this happens then the Oil prices will further crash to may be around $75--$80 per barrel. 7. With the fall in the sugar prices world-wide, much of its could be diverted to the production in ethanol reducing the "Crude Oil demand" world--wide. BUT WHAT AILS INDIAN (domestic) ETHANOL STORY?? CAN IT TAKE OFF WITH THE PRESENT SET OF GOVERNMENT PROTOCOLS?? SHOULD WE BUY THE STOCKS OF SUGAR COMPANIES BASED ON ETHANOL STORY WHICH MANY ANALYSTS OF TELEVISION IS SUGGESTING?? THE REASON WILL BE SENT TO PAID MEMBERS FIRST AND WILL THEN BE TABLED HERE IN THIS BLOG. 8. Despite rising demand for diesel, many US analysts argue that oil prices have risen well beyond levels that can be justified by supply and demand fundamentals; an increasing number of analysts are referring to the situation as a bubble. Moreover, the U.S. demand for fuel and oil has fallen this year. THIS IS JUST A BUBBLE AND IS WAITING TO BURST TOO SOON FOR TOO BETTER REASONS. HOPE I COULD THROW SOME LIGHT ON THIS BURNING TOPIC OF DAY, AND COULD SOME IDEA WHERE THE PROBLEM LIES. A CRASH IN CRUDE OIL PRICE IS INEVITABLE AND JUST ABOUT TO HAPPEN..........ONLY KEEP WATCH HOW SOME HEDGE FUNDS GO BUST AFTER THE EVENT LIKE IT HAPPENED A COUPLE OF YEARS BACK. INFLATION AND CRUDE OIL PRICE RISE: Inflation in the domestic market is not expected to rise too much in future unless government goes for huge rise in Oil prices in the domestic market. It is because food prices are going to fall subsequently due to good crop and US thinking of reducing the import duty on the corn used for the production of Ethanol. The price rise in Cement and Steel are already kept on hold. Already price of some commodities have started to fall and a good monsoon will further taper-off the price rise. So the inflation is going to be steady around 8% for some more weeks to come. If the Indian Government considers inflation above 5% to be necessary evil then it should ban futures trading or else continue with its growth oriented policy, with demand-supply equation taking care in the Commodity Futures Market. It is just a foolish on the part of any government in the World to speak of low inflation and at the same time allow speculation in commodities' market. Governments world-wide should choose either of the two and not both. It is speculation which is driving the price of commodities more than the actual demand-supply equation.