Monday, January 28, 2008

BNK Capital Markets Ltd hit the buyer freeze, silencing all the critics. Considering it's huge holdings in a number of listed and unlisted companies it has a long way to go. It is Jai Corp in the making: Today's Morning Call (given in the Sunday Report, sent to the Premium and Quickie Groups) hit the buyer freeze in the early trade. The scrip would hit the circuits tomorrow also, so those who could not get today, should try tomorrow.The name starts will Indi......Ele.......Ltd. It is into Power and Ferro Alloys: The Quickie Call for today..PN.........Gi.......Ltd...which is to certain extent an NBFC and is related to a well known bank, hit the buyer freeze. In quickie Group the calls are arranged in chronological manner depending upon the Probability & Expectations of the scrips' future performance. This helps the investors to choose form a list of calls:
Shriram EPC Ltd, the parent company of Ennore Coke Ltd is coming up with an IPO, this will give rub-off effect to Ennore Coke Ltd. The coke prices are buoyant world-wide, this is amply reflected in the results of Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd: Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd is nearing its bottom, so try to grab the scrip before it starts hitting upper circuits again. The company's promoters are thinking of increase the stake in the company either through market purchase or through a Preference Issue. The consolidated results of Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd for the December, 2007 qauarter are excellent. The company recently purchased a multiplex worth Rs.100 Cr. Should the shares of a company which is capable of purchasing a multiplex at such hefty amounts and has production houses in UK and Dubai be trading at Rs.10.7. Just think of it in spare time!!!! There are some more big news in the company which will be disclosed in the appropriate time: K Sera Sera Productions Ltd is launching two movies soon. As expected, the Company's December, 2007 quarter results are excellent, where both the Total Income and Net Profits took a quantum jump. The Company came out with a net profit of Rs.9.5 Cr against a LOSS of Rs.5.4. The scrip is now ready to cross Rs.100 in the near future: My earlier Recommended Rohit Ferro Tech Ltd (Sunday Report Call), Gujarat Mineral Developments Ltd (Quickie Call), Jai Parabolic Springs Ltd (Free Call), KRBL (Quickie Call), Minda Industries Ltd (Sunday Report Call), Rasoi (Free Call), Southern Online Bio Tech (Free Call), GTL Infrastructure Ltd (Spot call to the Paid Groups), Kisan Mouldings Ltd (Quickie Call and Spot buy call), Vijay Shanti Builders Ltd(Free Call), Soma Textiles Ltd (Free Call), Pondy Oxides Ltd (Free and Sunday Report Call), Coral India Finance Ld (Free Call and spot buy call to the Paid Groups) etc. hit respective buyer freezes:
Excerpts of the Sunday Report sent to the Paid Group Members:
The Markets are in corrective uptrend and hence please do not take too long positions: Always book some profits when you get it on the table: The markets are expected to stage a Pre-budget rally from the 2nd week of February: There are strong rumours (read news) that P Chidambaram is coming up with a dream budget just ahead of election, next year: The markets are expected to become a little hot with the blocked money flowing from the Reliance IPO proceeds: Keep focused on Media, Real Estate, Construction, Jewellery, Auto, Banking, Brokerage, and NBFC Sectors: If there is a cut in the interest rate then Banking, Real Estate, Auto and NBFC Stock will shoot: Keep holding all your positions wherever you are making losses and exit when you get some returns on the table: The Indian equities market faced the biggest ever crash in the history along the sides of the international markets in the fears of an impending US recession. So massive was the sell off that scrips like Ispat Industries Ltd, Nagarjuna Fertilisers Ltd, IFCI Ltd, JP Hydro etc. lost more than 60% of their value in just two days. The correction was global and this prompted the US FED to cut a stunning 75 basis points in an emergency meeting held before the scheduled meet to save the markets from the crisis and to ease the fears of the recession. It is yet to be seen if the Federal Reserve cut will be able to save the financial markets from the ongoing turmoil. However, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to reduce interest rates by 75 bps has helped in improving the global sentiment, including that in India. In the last week, the FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment but were net buyers in the derivatives segment. Moreover, domestic institutional investors were net buyers. The volumes recorded have been lower while the breadth of the market has remained weak during the course of the week. Crude Oil was particularly volatile over the week and didn’t make a particular move in either direction. Crude oil gained last day as the OPEC meeting comes closer and the ministers indicated that the market is still well supplied with oil and the wont raise their production targets when they meet on February 1, 2008. They kept the output levels unchanged in the last meeting in Riyadh and Crude oil has tumbled almost 600 points since then. Lack of liquidity continued to haunt the markets, with a stream of IPOs sucking out liquidity and with FIIs remaining net sellers, the market-men faced a tough time paying for the margins, which triggered a sell-off on the domestic bourses. As is the case with crude prices, food prices worldwide, including India, have been on an upward trend. According to World Bank, in 2007, prices for many staple foods reached record highs and global food reserves are at a 25-year low, making world food supply vulnerable to an international crisis or natural disasters. The increases have been attributed to the rising use of food crops for biofuels (given the firm oil prices), rapid income growth in developing countries, low stocks and droughts. To put things into perspective, the US used 20% of its maize production for biofuels and since there was a shift of land from wheat to maize, wheat prices too shot up. Similarly, Brazil used 50% of its sugarcane for biofuels and Europe used 68% of its vegetable oil production (Source: World Bank). As a result the supply of these crops for food has been restricted leading to price increases. Looking ahead, population growth, lifestyle changes, use of crops to manufacture biofuels and climate change are likely to have an important bearing on food prices in the future. But the encouraging point in this carnage is that Gold made a new life time high of Rs.11654, the precious metals act as a hedge against the rising inflation and the act as an alternative investment to the failing financial markets (this has been mentioned that US Citizens are saving in Gold) and the fears and hopes of investors is what drives the valuable metals to make new highs. The Base Metals have also been quite active last day as Lead zoomed northwards after trading in a range over the past days but it was not able to hold the up move for much longer with the bears bring it down again to close much lower than the high. Zinc didn’t see much action as it was still trading in the same range as it was earlier and Copper did attempt a move on the upside but failed to hold ground and came down tumbling to close at a mere gain of 0.23%. Nickel was the only metal to finish in red whereas Aluminium gained almost 2% and posted a stunning rally on the upside. The liquidity situation is expected to improve from the first week of February, 2008 as mentioned in my earlier write-ups; as the IPO refunds begin. But meanwhile the markets are expecting a 25 bps cut of interest from the RBI in addition to a CRR cut. If this is done then the complexion of the domestic bourses will change dramatically in matter of days. Hence it is advisable not get fully invested at this time. Please keep some cash so that it can be utilized in such opportune time. Technically, the Sensex has support at the 16,550 and 15,700 levels. On the upside, if the Sensex can sustain above 17,480, it is likely to test the 18,530 and 18,720 levels. The 4480 is an important support level for the Nifty. On the upside, if the Nifty manages to sustain above 5160, it is likely to test the 5520 and 5570 levels. The market, in all probability, could come back to last Tuesday’s low level once again and the large caps, mid-caps or even small caps may test last Tuesday’s low individually to create a double bottom, before they exhibit a slow but sure rise in coming months. The pain may persist for the short term but for the medium term bright sparks awaits.
Auto, bank shares in focus ahead of monetary policy review:
Today market review
The market staged a sharp recovery in late trade on buying in banking and auto shares and in index heavyweights Reliance Industries and L&T. The market had declined sharply in afternoon trade due to fall in Asian markets. Volumes remained low for the second day in a row. Banking and auto shares were in focus ahead of the monetary policy review tomorrow, 29 January 2008. European markets, which opened after Indian market were trading lower today. Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, settled lower today, 28 January 2008. US markets tumbled on Friday, 25 January 2008. The BSE Sensex declined 208.88 points or 1.14% at 18,152.78. It opened with downward gap of 349.77 points at 18,011.89 and dipped further to touch a low of 17,443.29 in afternoon trade. At the day's low, the Sensex lost 918.37 points. Sensex hit a high of 18,213.21 in late trade. At the day's high, Sensex was down 148.45 points for the day. The broader CNX S&P Nifty was down 109.25 points or 2.03% at 5,274.10. Nifty January 2008 futures were at 5,253.30, a discount of 20.80 points as compared to spot closing. Turnover was low. BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3901 crore as compared to Rs 5,221.62 crore on Friday, 25 January 2008. Turnover in NSE’s futures & options segment rose to Rs 43395.88 crore as compared to Rs 39007.70 crore on Friday, 25 January 2008. Though the market breadth was negative, it improved from earlier in the day. On BSE, 1844 shares declined as compared to 881 that advanced. 34 shares remained unchanged. In opening trade 1553 shares had declined as compared to 251 that advanced. The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.43% to 7,986.68 while the BSE Small-Cap index was down 1.13% to 10,303.51. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex. Most sectoral indices on BSE settled lower. BSE Bankex (up 1.24% at 11,521.22), BSE FMCG index (down 0.54% at 2,148.45), BSE Oil & Gas index (down 1.07% at 11,078.11), BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.59% to 5,258.50), BSE Metal index (down 1.03% at 15,442.75), outperformed the Sensex BSE Capital Goods index (down 1.99% at 17,116.36), BSE Health Care index (down 1.25% at 3,645.71), BSE Power index (down 1.50% at 3,912.66), BSE Realty index (down 4.54/% at 10,689.41), BSE PSU index (down 1.39% to 8,543.89), BSE Auto (up 1.72% at 4,926.14), BSE IT index (down 3.69% at 3,659.96) and BSE TecK index (down 3.67% to 3,299.84), underperformed the Sensex Among the BSE 30-share Sensex pack, 21 declined. In morning trade, all the 30-members of Sensex pack were down. Auto stocks staged a sharp comeback from early losses on value buying. India’s second largest bike manufacturer in terms of sales Bajaj Auto advanced 6.22% to Rs 2405. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack. It swung in a wide range of Rs 2101 and Rs 2490 in the day. Maruti Udyog (up 4.38% to Rs 866) and Mahindra & Mahindra (up 2.79% to Rs 693), also posted gains. Banking shares though trading with losses, recovered from early lows, ahead of Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s quarterly monetary policy review scheduled on Tuesday, 29 January 2008. India’s largest commercial bank in terms of net profit State Bank of India slumped 4.25% to Rs 2302.90. The stock hit a low of Rs 2200 in early trade. HDFC Bank was down 1.96% to Rs 1570, off day’s low of Rs 1440 while ICICI Bank gained 1.17% to Rs 1274, off day’s low of Rs 1201. As per media reports, a sharp cut in US interest rates last week has increased the possibility of a 25 basis points repo rate cut by Reserve Bank of India. Development Credit Bank surged 7.69% to Rs 124), Syndicate Bank rose 6.97% to Rs 109, Yes Bank gained 5% to Rs 245 and Union Bank of India rose 2.46% to Rs 208.50. India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) was down 2.07% to Rs 2555.50. It moved in a range of Rs 2440 and Rs 2591. 4.91 lakh shares were traded on the counter on BSE. As per reports RIL plans to foray in engineering, procurement and construction business to clock a turnover of Rs 5,000 crore in first year itself and double it in second year. India’s largest private sector engineering company in terms of order book position Larsen & Toubro was down 1.55% to Rs 3830, off sharply from day's low of Rs 3675. It today reported 40.10% surge in net profit to Rs 481.79 crore on 53.48% rise in total income to Rs 6483.55 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. European markets opened lower. Housing Development Finance Corporation (up 3.30% to Rs 2803), Reliance Energy (up 2.11% to Rs 2073), and ACC (up 2.55% to Rs 807.80), edged higher from the Sensex pack India’s largest real estate developer DLF slipped 5.20% to Rs 896 on 2.78 lakh shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack. Ranbaxy Laboratories (down 5.10% to Rs 349.20), Bharti Airtel (down 4.87% to Rs 870.05), and Infosys Technologies (down 4.60% to Rs 1451), were the other losers from Sensex pack Reliance group stocks dominated turnover charts with four out of five turnover toppers being from Reliance pack. Reliance Natural Resources was the most active counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 239.08 crore followed by Reliance Capital (Rs 178.76 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 164.34 crore), Essar Oil (Rs 164.13 crore) and Reliance Petroleum (Rs 150.18 crore), in that order. Reliance Natural Resources topped in terms of volumes on BSE clocking volumes of Rs 1.73 crore shares followed by Ispat Industries (1.48 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (91.10 lakh shares), IFCI (76.25 lakh shares) and Essar Oil (74.80 lakh shares), in that order. Ashok Leyland declined 2.67% to Rs 36.50 on reporting 14.2% rise in net profit to Rs 120.21 crore on 1.3% rise in net sales rose to Rs 1800.08 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. VSNL declined 5.21% to Rs 526 on posting 93.3% decline in net profit to Rs 9.52 crore on 0.11% rise in total income 0.11% to Rs 1113.52 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. JSW Steel declined 1.32% to Rs 954.70. It reported 9.38% fall in net profit to Rs 328.18 crore on 10.80% rise in total income to Rs 2,598.19 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. Tata Tea rose 0.21% to Rs 795.10. It reported 37.5% fall in net profit to Rs 58.88 crore on 6.28% rise in total income to Rs 1189.65 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. Welspun Gujarat Stahl Rohren rose 1.69% to Rs 505. As per reports it is in talks to acquire Remi Metals Gujarat, an integrated steel and seamless pipe maker, from the Saraf family. ING Vysya Bank slipped 1.87% to Rs 312 despite reporting 198.3% surge in net profit to Rs 42.75 crore in on 42.10% rise in total income to Rs 546.44 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. Nicholas Piramal India dropped 3.44% to Rs 302.90 after the company said on Friday, 25 January 2008, it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Pierre Fabre Laboratories to collaborate on oncology research. Glenmark Pharmaceuticals India gained 2.43% to Rs 511. The company today said it has received US Food and Drug Administration approval for its state-of-the-art semi-solids manufacturing plant at Baddi, Himachal Pradesh. Key benchmark indices in United Kingdom (down 1.82% to 5762.40), Germany (down 1.69% to 6,701.35) and France (down 2.17% to 4,772.35) slipped Asian markets settled lower today, 28 January 2008. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (down 4.25% at 24,053.61), Japan's Nikkei (down 3.97% at 13,087.91), Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (down 3.28% at 7,485.79), Singapore's Straits Times (down 4.81% at 3,007.54), China’s Shanghai Composite (down 7.19% to 4,419.29) and South Korea’s Seoul Composite (down 3.85% at 1,627.19), edged lower. US markets declined on Friday, 25 January 2008 led by financial companies, on concern that banks will be saddled with more credit market losses and the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates enough to stimulate growth. Dow Jones industrial average slipped 171.44 points or 1.38% to 12,207.17. The Nasdaq Composite lost 34.72 points or 1.47% to 2,326.20. Asian stocks had surged on Friday, 25 January 2008 led by several factors including strong corporate sentiment in Germany and a return of some confidence in the US economy after solid employment data and a congressional fiscal package. The Bush administration's fiscal package includes $150 billion of tax rebates and business incentives meant to prevent a slowdown in the country's economy. India's wholesale price index rose 3.83% in the 12 months to 12 January 2008 marginally higher than the previous week's rise of 3.79%, government data showed on Friday, 25 January 2008. The annual inflation rate was 6.15% during the corresponding week of the previous year. Crude oil prices dropped on Monday, 28 January 2008 with the light, sweet crude for March delivery sliding 63 cents to $90.08 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in Singapore. Brent crude fell 50 cents to $90.40 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. [With inputs from the Internet] Note: Those who want to enroll for the Paid Services (Premium and Quickie) should do that before the new enrollments are stopped for a couple of months for restructuring. To know the details for the Paid Services please mail me at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com / sumanm2007s@gmail.com:

No comments: