Image
SumanSpeaks Capital Markets & Geopolitical Intelligence · Estd 200 6 Turnaround Watch · EPC SEPC Ltd (₹6.54): From Stressed Asset to Strategic Platform Debt down from a peak of ₹907 crore to ₹351 crore. Two SAIL orders worth ₹1,527.89 crore landed inside eight weeks. A Dubai-headquartered promoter that bailed the company out of an RBI stressed-asset restructuring is now backing an ADNOC-linked entry into the Middle East. This is what a real turnaround looks like when you actually read the balance sheet instead of the ticker. 1 The Arc: From a ₹300 IPO to a Stressed Asset to a Rescue SEPC Ltd listed in February 2008 as Shriram EPC, priced at ₹300 a share, raising ₹150 crore under the Shriram Group — one of India's most recognised financial-services names, then led by T Shivaraman...
Sensex surges 186 points, after Investors poo poos recent RBI Decision on Banks' Exposure to Capital Markets: Mid-caps gain 73.25 points & Small Caps shoot 118.12 points as Indian Economy looks "Better than the Best":Crude Oil is still trading below $60/barrel, mark: Some of the Pump Companies look attractive due to drop in raw material prices, their increased use in Infrastructure Development and UPA Government's Stress on Agricultural Reforms:

Yesterday the market saw renewed buying in blue-chips which took the market to a record high after investors ignored the RBI's recent circular on banks capital market exposure. I had already asked all to ignore the bulshit draft bill on this topic.

In contrast to the recent trend, the participation in the rally was broad-based, which was evident in the strong market breadth, and an advance-decline ratio of 2.4:1 on BSE. The market-sentiment was bright following a strong debut of Internet firm Info Edge (India), and due to a steady-to-firm trend in Asian stocks. The BSE Sensex jumped 186.06 points (1.3%), to a lifetime closing high of 13,616.77. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 62.10 points (1.6%), to a lifetime closing high of 3,918.25. The market held firm throughout the day. The key indices took off in the second half of the trading session. BSE Small Cap Index rose 118.12 points (1.8%), to 6,416.61. The BSE Mid Cap Index added 92.43 points (1.6%), to 5,546.86. It is worth mentioning that the small-cap and mid-cap indices have underperformed the Nifty and Sensex in the last few weeks. The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4,041 crore, compared to Monday’s Rs 4,260 crore. Select small-caps and mid-caps powered ahead. Top gainers in the small-cap and mid-cap space were Sika Interplant Systems (up 20% to Rs 103.90), Shrachi Securities (up 20% to Rs 63.70), Development Credit Bank (up 20% to Rs 63.20), Mount Shivalik Industries (up 20% to Rs 56), HOV Services (up 13.9% to Rs 161.60), DMC Vaults (up 14% to Rs 17.95), Yuken India (up 13.6% to Rs 166) and Vaibhav Gemes (up 13% to Rs 267). Stronger-than-expected Q2 September 2006 results, and sustained FII-inflows have boosted the bourses of late. The BSE Sensex is up 44.8% in calendar 2006, so far. FIIs have stepped up buying notwithstanding apprehension of stretched valuations. FII-inflows in 2006 have reached $8.1 billion (till 20 November). Most of the money streaming in belongs to long-term pension funds and insurance firms. Funds are also pouring in from hedge funds. Strong global liquidity has aided the fund flow. Another factor that has contributed to the surge in foreign investment is the ever growing number of FIIs getting registered with Sebi everyday. In this calendar year, there has been an addition of over 170 FIIs, the aggregate now standing at 993. There are expectations that foreign funds will buy more in December 2006, as allocations are made for the New Year. However, foreign brokerage Merrill Lynch expects a slowdown in earnings growth of Sensex firms in FY 2008 (year ending 31 March 2008). `Excluding Reliance Communications, earnings in FY 2008 should rise only 11.2% versus the 27.5% forecast for FY 2007 (year ending 31 March 2007). If so, it would be the slowest earnings growth since FY 2002’, the brokerage stated in a Q2 earnings review released early this month. It, however, expects strong earnings growth to continue in Q3 December 2006. Volatility is likely in the near term as traders square off, or carry forward, their outstanding contracts for November futures ahead of the expiry of contracts next Thursday (30 November). The market staged a solid intra-day rebound on Monday (20 November) after the Sensex had plunged over 200 points at one point of time scared by an RBI circular on Friday (17 November), which capped banks’ exposure to the capital market. In today’s trade, Bharti Airtel rose nearly 3% to Rs 622.35. The stock hit a lifetime high of Rs 625.70. Rival Reliance Communications rose 1.8% to Rs 416.70. The stock also attained a lifetime high of Rs 418. Both cellular services providers turned bullish amid reports that the Department of Telecom (DoT) will make available, additional radio frequency for cellular service providers. IT pivotals were in demand for the second day in a row today, following reports that top Indian IT firms were chasing over a dozen deals on an average, the sizes of which range between $50 - $100 million. Satyam Computer gained 3.2% to Rs 455, HCL Tech rose 3% to Rs 647, TCS rose 2.8% to Rs 1,148 and Wipro added 2.6% to Rs 569. Infosys Technology Ltd closed almost flat shedding 0.3% to close at Rs 2,246. The software giant priced its sponsored ADS issue at $53.30 per ADS, a 3.2% discount to Monday’s closing price of $55.2. The company said the aggregate size of the ADS offer exceeds $1.6 billion. As part of this offering, 5,000,000 ADSs representing 5,000,000 equity shares, will be placed with Japanese investors through a public offer without listing (POWL). Cigarette maker ITC gained 3.3% to Rs 184.35, and giant Hindustan Lever advanced 2.2% to Rs 248.35. I am very bullish on ITC due to its retail foray. The Kolkata-headquartered company was able to push its services in the rural areas as well, unlike the other retails players like Pantaloon or Provogue. Tata Steel gained nearly 3% to Rs 476.85. Tata Steel has reportedly called an unscheduled board meeting on Thursday, to discuss the fallout of CSN’s 475 pence per share counter-bid for Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus. Tata Steel had bid at 455 pence per share for Corus. Tata Steel's board is likely to discuss various options including the possibility of a revised offer for Corus. Media reports also indicated that Tata Steel might win the takeover battle if it matched CSN's bid, given that Corus' management approved the Indian firm's bid last month. Tata Steel may, however, be reluctant to get involved in a hostile bid. Shares in Info Edge (India), which runs web sites for job search[www.naukri.com] and matrimony[www.jeevansathi.com], closed at Rs 593.20, a premium of 85.3% over the IPO price (Rs 320). The scrip clocked a massive volume of 78 lakh shares on BSE. The company's IPO had been oversubscribed by 54.76 times. I had advised profit booking through messanger when the scrip was trading above Rs.600. The point to be noted that I consider yesterday's closing price too high considering that some of its subsidiaries are making losses. I still maintain that the stock could go down further considering the cloudiness surrounding this type of business. Those who still want to hold, please do so keeping a strict SL-->Rs.500. ICICI Bank rose 1.4% to Rs 872, on reports that the largest private sector bank is slated to raise $1 billion through an issue of yen-denominated bonds. Other bank shares rose after RBI Deputy Governor, Rakesh Mohan, said on Tuesday that greater price stability will make it possible to have lower interest rates in the medium term. State Bank of India gained 2% to Rs 1,233. 30, Bank of India rose 1.6% to Rs 190, and Bank of Baroda rose 1% to Rs 258.20. Auto shares gained while trying to keep themselves abreast of the market. Car major Maruti Udyog rose 1.7% to Rs 885.25, Tata Motors gained 2% to Rs 819, Ashok Leyland rose 3% to Rs 43.45 and Bajaj Auto gained 0.4% to Rs 2,576. Auto shares were underperformers in the recent market surge. Cement shares rose on firm cement prices. ACC gained 1.3% to Rs 1,071, Gujarat Ambuja Cements gained 1.9% to Rs 136, and UltraTech Cement rose 1.3% to Rs 895.25. Construction and real estate firms were in demand on reports that the Finance Ministry is expected to come out with enhanced limits for bank exposure to corporate groups, projects and sectors, to boost credit flow to the infrastructure sector. L&T gained 1.7% to Rs 1,350, IVRCL Infrastructures rose 8% to Rs 379, Madhucon Projects advanced 6.8% to Rs 310, Jaiprakash Associates rose 11% to Rs 675, Simplex Infrastructure rose 6% to Rs 393 and Unitech gained 5% to Rs 485.75. My recommended scrip, the Bombay based BSEL Infrastrucutre Realty Ltd got locked in the upper circuit with huge volumes of pending bid. I had asked all to buy the scrip if it reverses the trend and comes above Rs.54. The stock this time should head towards Rs.120 mark with some new developments in its Panvel and Tardeo projects. I think now the time has come for Conart Engineers Ltd, an undervalued real estate firm to move ahead. This company is into civil construction and other engineering projects. My report on this company is expected to come out any time from now. So remain invested in this company. Another real estate firm Coral Finance & Housing Ltd is consolidating around Rs.30 range and waiting for the further upmove. Please accumulate the scrip at any price below Rs.24. I might recommend another scrip on the Yahoo Messanger yesterday. Those are listed on my messanger please keep some cash ready.... MTNL rose nearly 3% to Rs 134.20, after the company launched pre-paid services on its Garuda mobile offering. Mahindra & Mahindra gained 2.7% to Rs 841, after the company said on Monday it had signed a deal with Global Vehicles, US, to distribute Mahindra's sports utility vehicle and a pick-up in the US. Balmer Lawrie & Company rose 2.7% to Rs 394.90, amid reports that Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas has upgraded the status of the public sector firm to Mini Ratna Category 1, which will enable the company to enjoy greater managerial and commercial autonomy in respect of capital expenditure, join ventures, creating subsidiaries, merger and acquisitions. Aditya Birla Nuvo rose 3.7% to Rs 1,107, after the company said a meeting of the special committee constituted by the board will be held on 23 November 2006, for deciding various matters in connection with the proposed rights issue. Mercator Lines gained 4% to Rs 37.50, after the company said on Tuesday it had executed an agreement to buy a double-hulled tanker of 1,10,000 dead-weight tonnage. The tanker is expected to join the company's fleet next month. BPL rose 5% to Rs 58.45, after it said its board will meet on 23 Nov 2006, to consider transfer/leasing of its alkaline battery business, to an equal joint venture. The board will also consider investing in the venture. Development Credit Bank jumped 20% to Rs 63.20, on a high volume of 1.55 crore shares on BSE. On Monday, the company’s board approved an increase in FII-ceiling substantially; from 24% to 49%. The board also approved up to Rs 225 crore placement to qualified institutional buyers. i-flex solutions rose nearly 5% to Rs 1,593.70, after Interbank, one of Peru’s leading commercial banks, opted for Reveleus Operational Risk as its enterprise-wide operational risk management platform. Sterlite Optical Technologies jumped 8% to Rs 211.50, after the company bagged a contract worth $ 5 million from Qatar's Q-Tel, for manufacturing and supply of copper telecom cables. The deliveries, to be spread over the next three years, will start in December 2006. Hindustan Zinc rose 2.4% to Rs 865, after zinc closed 3% higher on Monday, on the London Metal Exchange. Zinc, for delivery in three months, ended at $4,169 a tonne, up 3.4%. Garware Wall Ropes dropped 0.5% to Rs 65.30. The company said on Tuesday it will raise up to $10 million through various means including a possible overseas issue. My earlier recommended Scrip Kilburn Engineering Ltd got locked in the upper cirucit with huge volume. On last Monday I had asked all to book some profits at Rs.65 and again enter. Those who have followed my advise has now gained twice --first from Rs.53 to Rs.65 and then from the recent moves. This is the magic of holding any scrip for the long term. Gitanjali Gems gained nearly 1% to Rs 213.55, after the company today said it has entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to form a 50:50 joint venture with Sulieman Al Othaim of Saudi Arabia, one of the leading retail chains in the Middle East. The venture will help Gitanjali's entry into mainstream retail in Saudi Arabia, the company said in a statement. Birla VXL was trading at Rs 48.30, against Monday’s closing at Rs 63.35. The stock today turned ex-rights. The company’s rights issue is in the ratio of 4:7, and was priced at par. Rolta India Ltd surged ahead to cross Rs.270 befor cooling down a bit. Those who are holding the scrip should book 90% of thier profits as it almost near its target price of Rs.300. It has a strong resistance at Rs.285. The company is expected to do well due to posiitive developments in Indo-US nuclear agreement. The company is a niche player in GIS and CAD/CAM service. Yesterday, I recommended Roto Pumps Ltd at Rs.48, through Yahoo Messanger, after the company came out with brilliant results in the September,2006 quarter. The net profit of the company surged to Rs.62.8 Lakh against Rs.17.4 lakh on a tiny equity base of Rs.3.01 Cr. The stock got locked in the upper circuit for some time before cooling down a bit and ending at Rs.48.75, still up 8.45 %. The company's scrip looks undervalued as against its peeers considering the Expected EPS of around Rs.8-Rs.9, and good book value, which should give it a price of at least Rs.100-Rs.150 in the medium to long term. It manufactures progressive cavity, twin screw and centrifugal pumps for chemical and process industries in India. Infrastructure development in any economy is not possible without the USE of pumps. Brief Profile of Roto Pumps Ltd: ROTO is a market leader in POSITIVE DISPLACEMENT PUMPS in India and have over three decades of strong presence in the market backed by Regional Offices in all Indian Metros & thier own Warehouse cum Marketing offices in Australia & U.K. It has significant overseas presence with exclusive distributors in several countries . The company had embarked on a fast track growth phase and would be registering over 40 growth in the current year--some of which are visible in the September, 2006 quarter results. It has a modern consolidated manufacturing unit in Noida(U.P.) & Marketing and Corporate HQ'S at NSEZ NOIDA(UP) to provide impetus to its envisaged growth. The stock of the company has a whopping book value of Rs.32.69. Its nearest competitor Kirloskar Brothers Ltd has a Book Value of only Rs.29.73 and ESP of Rs.16.66 agaist a price of Rs.372.75. Another of it's peer, Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd has a Book Value of Rs.19.92 and EPS of Rs.5.24 against a price of Rs.115.3. I have already mentioned that the Expected EPS of Roto Pumps Ltd for FY-06-07 is around Rs.8--Rs.9. There were also unusually high volume in the counter. The candle stick pattern on the chart also confirms this view of mine. India and China will work to raise their bilateral trade to $40 billion by 2010, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Tuesday after talks with visiting Chinese President Hu Jintao. Bilateral trade has climbed from just $260 million in 1990 to a projected $20 billion in 2006/07. This is a very good and welcoming news for the Indian Capial Markets. I have already placed my target of Sensex as 17, 500 by March, 2007. On Monday, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said New Delhi was seeking comprehensive economic cooperation with China but a free-trade agreement with Beijing was not on the cards.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog