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Tuesday, August 05, 2008

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:
As expected the Crude Oil prices prices tumbeld in the International Markets to close at $120.81 (when this report is being written) before briefly crashing below $120 per barrel. My target on the Crude Oil crashing below $120 and settling briefly around $110 per barrel still holds. I have been predicting this target when the Crude Oil was at around $147 per barrel & was vaccilating dangerously to cross $150 per barrel: The "Quickie Call" GHCL Ltd hit the buyer freeze with good volume. But why?? The business channels tried to fathom something on the scrip but could not get anything from the promoters, hahaaaaa!!!!. This is the repeat of the last week when the "Quickie Call" Ashariya Telecom Ltd hit the buyer freeze: Why did this week's micro-cap "Quickie Call", Refnol Resin and Chemicals Ltd, hit the buyer freeze??
My Sunday Report call U B Engineering Ltd hit the buyer freeze but then is it safe to hold it still?? Who is playing with the stock?? When will that big bull leave the stock like what happened in Sathavahana Ispat Ltd, where a sell call was given in the Sunday Report after a big bull from Bombay exited. Most of the Paid Members also exited the scrip yesterday taking the help of the buoyancy in the counter, making huge money.
Is the Steel Story still looking good?? Yes or No?? I think the Paid Members were informed about that......:
What is the next big Real Estate Story from the South India (the stock in question is near its 52-Week low price and is expected to become double in the next couple of months), after my Kamanwala Housing gave enough to the investors. If you remember I was the first person to say Kamanwala Housing would come out with Bonus issue.
Today my Friend Ashish Chugh came out with a buy report on Kamanwala Housing Construction Ltd. He also came out with a buy report on another of my recommended counters, Selan Exploration Technologies Ltd, which I recommended at arond Rs.72 and Rs.87 in 2007. Should we invest in all the Real Estate Counters?? Yes or No??!!!! If Yes, in which stocks???!!!
Why is Sahyadri Industries Ltd (another recommended counter) hitting buyer freezes?? What is the target of Kavveri Telecom Products Ltd, which was recommended this week on the Sunday Report??? What is so special about Kavveri Telecom Products Ltd???
What is the new story in H S India Ltd (Hotel Silver Ltd & BSE Code-->532145), especially in light of its location in Surat, Gujarat??!!
Why did Indo Borax and Chemicals Ltd, my recommended scrip on this Saturday to the Paid Members hit the buyer freeze?? What is the new story in the counter???!!!
Now with buoyancy coming in the markets which has been mentioned on the Sunday Report, the "Cats and Dogs" have started to rise again. Avoid falling in the Operators' trap/hand or else all your hard work will be doomed and you will be left with illiquid counters:
Is it safe to play on the Sugar Counters?? Why did Sugar Stocks started to rally suddenly out of blue?? Is the move justified or one should exit sugar counters on every rally??!!
Jolly Board recommended to the Paid and Free members hit the buyer freeze yesterday. The stock if you remember was recommened around Rs.2400, some weeks back:
My Recommended Tulsiyan NEC, Western India Shipyard, Khoday Ltd, NEPC India Ltd, Nagpur Power Ltd etc. hit the buyer freeze yesterday:
What has happened to Nikunj Dalmia of NDTV Profit?? Without him Namrata Brar looks a little pale, since Prashant Nair lacks Nikunj's sly wit. On the other side of the fense, Udayan and Mitali combination have again started to do well, with the latter scoring some brownie points over the former. She has also improved her poise, a bit, in the last few weeks. But she should be a little more confident about herself, like Namrata Brar of NDTV Profit:
The excerpts of my latest Sunday Report sent to Paid Members:
The markets are expected to be less volatile next week: Small and Mid Caps will shine:
In the last week the markets moved in a rangebound trend amidst occasional bouts of volatility and choppiness. However, the things did not take too ugly turn even though F & O settlement was knocking at the door. Selling pressure and profit booking surfaced at higher levels as the markets continued to lack confidence at these levels. Incidentally, FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment but were net buyers in the derivatives segment, which implies that shorts which were being created are being covered. Mutual Funds, however, remained net buyers during the week, giving some solace in these conditions.
Crude oil prices which corrected to around $120 per barrel suddenly bounced to $126 levels only to fall again as the global slowdown is expected to pull down the demand for oil going forward. The Crude Oil is expected to settle around $110---$120 mark before crashing $100 mark in the coming months.
The inflation moved higher to rise to 11.98% for the week ended 19th July, 2008. There is a famous saying that ...........The same thought seems to be guiding our RBI governor while preparing the first quarter review of monetary policy. Economic growth rate does not affect the common man on the street directly and immediately but soaring price does---this could be the theme of both the RBI boss and the FM. The RBI continued to take measures to arrest the rising inflation by raising the Repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 9% with immediate effect and CRR by 25 bps.
The impact of rate hike was further buttressed by the RBI’s lower GDP projection of 8 per cent, down from 8.0 -8.5 per cent earlier, clearly indicating that it is planning to control the inflation at the cost of Growth. Now, the inflation rate is projected close to 7% by end March 2009, which is still higher from earlier target of five per cent. Now with RBI’s forecast of higher than anticipated inflation, and lower than expected growth, which was coupled with the tough medicine by the way of double dose is not so sweet.
At present, the domestic macroeconomic signals remain ambiguous and there is no clarity on the global scenario hence the current increase in monetary measures could backfire if such strong measures hits the supply side factors leading to more trouble; but apparently it seems that RBI is has done its best to contain the inflation sacrificing the growth momentum.
Now, whether the long-term gain will be worth the short-term pain or whether it will prove excessive is something we will know only later, but for the moment due to RBI’s inflation management policy the markets could get jitters on its way up.
However, I think the interest rate has more or less peaked out and hence the impact on interest sensitive sectors like Auto and Real Estate will not be that severe as was in the previous occasions; though these sectors would continue to slow unless we move towards a softer interest rate regime.
The earnings season is going on and it seems the companies have performed above expectation in some of the cases. Now as far as the Q1FY09 results are concerned, much was talked about the earning downgrades. But the results are out and a study of 1114 companies which have announced results so far shows that, although the figures are not great these are better than expectations. Here the 1114 companies have posted a topline of growth of 28.41 per cent and bottomline growth of just 5.93 per cent. Now at the first go this does not appear good. But the impact on overall bottomline has been caused by Oil marketing companies........... But there are certain alarming factors, ......................... The interest cost for India Inc too has gone up by 30.77%. Even on adjusting for interest cost of banks and financial institutions, the net interest cost shoot up by 72.23%. Regarding the performance of Sensex based companies, 27 companies have announced the results and have posted a topline growth of 25.56 per cent and bottomline growth of 15.58%. Now the Q1FY09 results have been better than expectation.
But the moot question is, is it sustainable? .......For the April-June quarter of 2008-09, oil imports grew by 50.2 per cent to $ 25.52 billion from $16.99 billion in the corresponding period last year. The Indian crude basket for the April-June quarter this year stood at $ 118.50 per barrel.
Indian consumers are likely to have their rendezvous with 3G telecom services in the next six months. The telecom minister Mr. A. Raja announced the most eagerly awaited norms of 3G spectrums. As per the announcement, the government will hold a global auction for high-speed third-generation (3G) mobile services and have five operators initially. “India has 60 MHz of 3G spectrum available and will allow both GSM and CDMA 3G services.” he said. India's huge labour force - including its supply, skill level and cost, has placed India as the second best country for business investment as per the new survey of American corporate executives conducted by Development Counselors International.
On the commodity front, ambiguous trend has occurred in gold and crude oil. US fed meeting, which is scheduled on Tuesday, will give a crucial movements to these commodities, priced in dollar. If they keep the interest rate unchanged then it will give marginal strength to gold and crude. Progress of monsoon is gearing up kharif sowing across the country. News of sowing progress is likely to weigh on agri commodities futures.
Coming back to the markets, with no major triggers available in the near term much will depend on the performance of global markets. As regards the expected movement, we expect the market to be range bound with slight positive bias unless the Crude Oil shoots up. However, it is now important that the participation by the retail investors increases.
The markets continued to witness lower volumes on days with positive closing and higher volumes on days with a negative close, which indicates lack of confidence and tentative sentiment at higher levels. It is important that the markets witness improvement in participation for any sustainable rally to unfold.
The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to 1.33 from 1.31. End of week maximum stocks had positive trend of change in put call open interest ratio. The open interest for the index at the end of this week has decreased by –4.24% as compared to the previous week. All Future stocks saw changes in their open interest ranging from 162.86% to –87.73%. INDIACEM saw the highest change in its open interest in positive side while RANBAXY saw the biggest decline in open interest as compared to other stocks.
On the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 14670 and 15000 levels but has support at the 14140 and 13990 levels. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at the 4480 and 4640 levels. Investors are suggested to follow an immediate trading range of (4250-4700). A penetration below 4250 should be seen as an indication of fresh weakness percolating back to the system and would warrant a caution against long positions. The volatility in Nifty may settle down. The markets are expected to remain relatively less volatile as compared to what we have seen in the recent past. Moreover, the undertone of the market looks less bearish and we may see some renewed strength in the market.
Investors should buy stocks which are fundamentally strong and not follow some tips from some unknown guys, like I saw someone giving a buy call on Cubex Tubings Ltd (BSE Code--->526027), when the copper prices are shooting over the roof and there is a heavy fluctuation of the foreign currency. The company’s June, 2008 quarter results are in shambles with the EPS nose-diving to Rs.1.03 from Rs.4. Those who are holding this stock should exit immediately as it could fall to Rs.45 or even lower in the short term. The vertical rise on the stock is not due to change in fundamentals or improve in fundamentals but due to operator movement.
In another case I found Sambhav Media being referred as Penny stock, when it has Rs.1, as face value and not Rs.10. So the effective price should be Rs.26, if we consider Rs.10 face value. Till today I did not understand what a Penny Stock means; the term has been imported from abroad to confuse the investors. I asked many analysts what they mean when they say “Penny Stock” but none could give a convincing definition. So it is better to avoid this ambiguous term.
Posted by SumanSpeaks at 2:21 AM

ICSA India Ltd (BSE Code-->531524)

Buy ICSA India Ltd at the CMP of Rs.90--Rs.92 for a target of Rs.150, in the next 45 days time frame. The company is into making of innovative products suitable for Power Utilities, in the field of Energy Management, Energy Audit, and Control Applications and provides versatile Data Acquisition System using several communication media such as GSM, CDMA, Satellite, Optical Fibre and RF.

Company has allotted 105000 Equity Shares on conversion of 35% of Stock Options granted under ESOP Scheme 2005 and 26,50,000 Equity Shares on conversion of Fully Convertible Warrants. Out of USD 46mn FCCB raised by the company, USD 25mn FCCBs were converted in the last financial year and an amount of USD 21mn are outstanding as on December 31, 2008.

Company has taken up the commissioning of Wind Forms aggregating to 9.6 MW.The company came out with superb set of numbers for the December, 2008 quarter, inspite of the downturn.

More coming..............

Oil rises towards $38 on surprise crude stocks drop

PERTH: Oil climbed towards $38 a barrel on Wednesday, paring some of overnight's 5 percent losses, after the industry group American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory data showed crude stockpiles had fallen unexpectedly.

But a downward revision by the U.S. government on its oil demand forecasts and doubts over the effectiveness of the U.S. government's bank rescue plan capped oil's gains.

U.S. crude for March delivery rose 38 cents to $37.93 a barrel by 0225 GMT, after settling down $2.01, or 5 percent, at $37.55 a barrel on Tuesday.

London Brent crude rose 50 cents to $45.11, stretching its unusual premium over U.S. oil prices to more than $7 a barrel, nearing the record above $9 hit last month as storage tanks in the Cushing delivery point neared their peaks.

"The API data is helping prices to rebound after last night's sell-off. Oil prices were perhaps a little oversold amid the panic across the equities and commodities markets," said Toby Hassall, chief analyst at Commodities Warrants Australia.

"The macroeconomic data from the U.S. is not painting a picture of swift recovery but the API numbers could be an indication that supply and demand in the spot market is beginning to get a little more balanced."

U.S. crude oil stockpiles unexpectedly fell 1.996 million barrels last week despite an increase in import levels and a decline from refineries, data from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday, bucking expectations that crude stocks would increase by 3.1 million barrels.

Analysts said investors were cautiously optimistic as the API report comes one day ahead of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly report on petroleum supply and demand, which is considered to be accurate.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose for the seventh consecutive time last week, analysts forecast in a Reuters poll on Tuesday, citing a drop in refinery utilisation and higher imports.

In yet another sign that OPEC would cut production targets at its next meeting in March, Saudi Arabia's oil minister said low oil prices were as unjustified and unsustainable as the record peak above $147 a barrel last summer.

But expectations that the International Energy Agency will cut its forecasts for 2009 world energy demand yet again this week due to a worsening economic outlook continued to weigh on oil markets.

Oil's sharp losses on Tuesday, which dragged it back below the psychologically important $40 mark, came after the U.S. government revised its oil demand forecasts lower and on concerns the American banks bailout plan unveiled by the Obama administration will do little to revive the ailing economy.

The EIA revised down its 2009 global oil demand forecast by 400,000 barrels per day from the previous outlook, predicting demand will fall by 1.17 million bpd this year from 2008 levels.

Analysts said investors would be closely eyeing Chinese import and export data as well as U.S. international trade figures to gauge the health of the economy

 
 

Some Positives about Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd

  • PSTIL is taking strong measures to improve both its top and bottolines according to Mr.Swaminathan, the CMD of the company. There is also strong source based news, that the company could come up with a "Buy Back" of the shares at a higher price or at a Premium to the market price.

  •  It is to be understood that Pyramid Saimira (PSTL) , a holistic Indian multinational entertainment company, operating in 6 countries is one of the World's fastest growing entertainment group. Its diversified businesses include Exhibition (Theatre), Film and Television Content Production, Distribution, Hospitality, Food & Beverage, Animation and Gaming, Cine Advertising, etc., which has propelled it to take the entertainment industry to the next level.

  • Due to downturn the company has reduced the number of screen at present to 250 since the company observed that average capitalization of screens were falling across the industry and average spend per person is not increasing proportionately.

  • Now the company has started to take special measures to increase the profitability of the venture and some of these measures have already started to show  positive effect on the company's fundamentals.

For example: 

Serial No.

Particulars

Q3FY09

Q2FY09

% Change

  1.  

No. of screens

252

745

 

  1.  

Sq.ft under control

10.04 lakhs

31.91 lakhs

 

  1.  

Average Capacity Utilization

38%

36%

5.5%

  1.  

Average revenue per footfall

Rs.41.93

40.11

4.5%

  1.  

Average Revenue per Screen for the quarter

34.24 lakhs

32.63 Lakhs

4.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some more positives about PSTL:

1. The company realigned the screens and also re-negotiated and revised the terms. In addition, withdrew from the Northern and Western India completely where the company was making losses. Towards the same the company has treated those losses as operational loss.

2. Due to realignment of terms and transfer of control of certain screens to the distribution verticals, the company is expected to receive substantial amounts of Security Deposits from the theatre owners for fully de-hired theatres and some of the advances has been transferred in favour of subsidiary company, handling, distribution. The recovery of advances from theatre owners is on---this is great news for the shareholders. Since the deposits are recoverable and hence it has not placed any provision for bad debts.

3. The company is adding another 150 screens the funding of which will be done by the amounts received from de-hired theatre owners. This is expected to optimize operational efficiency.

4. This will also enable better tax compliance and planning. This method will avoid unnecessary transfer pricing complications.

5. In the Q3FY09, the amount of Rs.76.32 Cr has been provided for as an external loss towards foreign exchange. It is to be understood that the Net Loss for Q3FY09 is Rs.74.74 Crs. Hence if we remove that virtual loss of Rs.76.32 Cr, do we not get a BETTER picture of the company's results?? In fact the company came out with a net profit of Rs.1.6 Cr in Q3FY09.

6. Taking cues from the above it is found that company's EPS for the year ending 31st March, 2008 on a standalone basis is Rs.2.47.

For Q1FY09, EPS-->Rs.4.77,

For Q2FY09, EPS-->Rs.3.08, and

For Q3FY09, EPS--->Re.0.56.

So Annualised EPS for the current year is expected to be a whooping Rs.9.53. This is exclusive of the EPS of the group/subsidiary companies.

 

This massive EPS is against the current price of the scrip at Rs.20.55; which looks absurd and hence the scrip shoud go for an immediate re-rating. All these has been done on a conservative basis; however if there is a further improvement in the fundamentals due to steps taken by the management of Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd, the EPS for FY09, could exceed Rs.10.

 

Hence the scrip of Pyramid Saimira (PSTL) is dirt cheap, considering the potential of the company.


Moreover, any film launch in next week or at the end of this month or news of any buy back of shares will have positive effects on the share price and could rocket the scrip of the company up---a characteristic of the PSTL.

 

I think you remember how most of the shareholders got benefited from my similar move in case of Garnet Construction Ltd in 2007, when the stock was moving down from Rs.53, hitting continuous lower circuits. Moreover, those who have purchased Satyam Computer Services Ltd along with me from Rs.18.5 must have  been benefited by now---this is called reading between the lines, which is an essential part of the stock market. The art of making money in the stock markets is to see or visualise what others are not able to do, normally.

 

THE ABOVE INPUTS WERE SENT TO THE PAID GROUPS, LAST WEEK...

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Pyramid Saimira Theatres Ltd hit the buyer freeze, as the company is working hard to improve its fundamentals. Already the steps taken are showing positive effect. This might be a repeat of the Satyam Computer Services Ltd episode, where most of the investors who bought with me from Rs.18.5,onwards, made huge money, when the share price suddenly spurted to more than Rs.60 in less than 2 months time frame. Please stop hearing all those experts on television channels if you want to make genuine money from the markets!! Those who have heard the great voice of Shankar Sharma and shorted the market must have lost their shirts in the last few days. Moreover, it is good to see Dr.Pranab Mukherjee, endorsing my thoughts of massive tax cuts instead of going for mindless infusion of capital in the system (What Mr.Barrack Obama is doing in the US), increasing the chance of HYPER INFLATION AND REDUCING THE VALUE OF INDIAN RUPEE OR FURTHER DEPRECIATING INDIAN RUPEE; going forward. The government should come out wtih massive tax cuts and other proposals which would boost the spending and in turn increase growth. In my list Dr.Pranab Mukherjee still holds number one position in the UPA Government followed by Mr.P Chidambaram, Mr.A K Antony and Mr.Murli Deora. Mr.Chidambaram as India's Home Minister, should be a little more strict in his approach while dealing with the "Rogue Government" in Pakistan. At the bottom of my list is the "Humongous Drama Queen", Ms.Renuka Choudhury, [When Dr.Jaipal Reddy known for his penchant for using, unusual English words in his speeches, suddenly used this word "humongous" in one of utterances in the Parliament, most of the media persons and fellow politicians present in that august hall were surprised. Ms.Renuka Choudhury at that time is reported to have said to the bewildered masses, "Look at me to understand the meaning of Humongous"], the "Garbage of Indian Politics".

My "Quickie Call" Opto Circuits India Ltd given to the Paid Group Members (Quickie Group only) on last Sunday, moved up by  more than 4%. The stock is still looking excellent on the daily charts. Even in this downturn the company came out with superb set of numbers for the Q3FY09. The company last month announced that Maxcor Lifesience, Inc, the newly incorporated subsidiary of the Company (OCI), entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Micell Technologies, Inc., based in Raleigh, North Carolina, U.S.A. Maxcor and Micell will co-operate in developing and commercializing leading edge Rapamycin (Sirolimus) - based Drug Eluting Stents (DES) and Drug Eluting Balloons (DEB) which will complement OCI's present range of successful paclitaxel-based drug-device combination products. Offering products with both compounds will enable OCI to maximize its market by addressing additional clinical scenarios. The jointly-developed offerings will have cardio-vascular applications that will advance the treatment of many clinical conditions while also minimizing their potential risks or side-effects. Moreover, it also informed that, 5,40,000 convertible share warrants were allotted to Mr. Vinod Ramnani Promoter Director in 2007 at Rs.360 per warrant. The Company has converted these warrants in to 5,40,000 equity shares and allotted the same to Mr. Vinod Ramnani on January 12, 2009.

Kohinoor Broadcasting Corporation Ltd which which was asked to be accumulated by the Paid Groups since last 20 days hit the buyer freeze yesterday, with almost 1 million (10 lakhs) pending shares---but why??!!

My Sunday Report recommended scrip to the Paid Groups, Deccan Chronicle Holdings Ltd at Rs.37.85 moved to Rs.39.45 in yesterday's early trade. A research report on the company is placed at: www.sumanspeaksplus.blogspot.com (SumanSpeaksPlus).

Kalindee Rail Nirman Engineers Ltd and Kernex Mircro Systems Ltd which were recommended to the Paid Groups last week, already gave more than 25% return in less than 10 days. Now what to do with these scrips??

VBC Ferro Alloys Ltd hit 8th consecutive buyer freeze after it was recommended around Rs.121--Rs.122 ranges. But why is it rising??

Vikash Metal & Power Ltd moved up by 4.11% yesterday, after it was recommended to the Free Groups for aggressive buy on last Sunday. The Commercial production of Ferro Silico Managenese & Ferro Managanese by the company's new venture, has started from October 18, 2008.

The company it seems presented a sham balance sheet in order to show less profit (and to get  huge Tax benefits in return). "Bah Ustad Bah", your employees cost increased by more than 30% in one year---who will  believe this story?? The company though came out with a robust topline, but the scheming management thought of showing every expenditure on the  higher side, due to obvious reasons. Eg. Consumption of raw materials surprisingly came at Rs.31.34 Cr in Q3FY09 (Rs.19.01 Cr), which almost surprisingly doubled (and which looked somewhat absurd considering Q-o-Q, when the price of most of the commodities fell). The company showed almost double depreciation in Q3FY09 at Rs.2.05 Cr, as compared to the corresponding figures in Q3FY08, without any apparent reasons. Other expenditure suddenly jumped to  Rs.8.9 Cr in Q3FY09, as against Rs.6.2 Cr, when most of the companies were going for cutting down on expenditure. Therefore we can safely conclude that the company will show huge net profit as soon as the market condition improves to give a momentum to its share price. Inference: Buy in BULK BEFORE THE PROMOTERS FINISHES BUYING FROM THE OPEN MARKET AND DECLARES SUPERB (read actual) RESULTS TO JACK UP THE SHARE PRICE. Please learn to read between the lines, in order to make killings in the market.

My recommended Punj Lloyd Ltd moved up by more than 7% before cooling down a bit. Accumulate as much as  you can keeping a SL of Rs.82. Moreover, the fact that it is above Rs.89, is a great solace for the bulls. It is one of the finest companies in the construction space, along with IVRCL Infrastructure Ltd, Nagarjuna Construction Ltd, etc. In this space Pratibha Industries Ltd recommended very recently hit the buyer freeze yesterday.

My recommended XL Telecom & Energy Ltd hit the buyer freezed. Recently when the scrip was hitting the lower circuits, a worried paid member, Nitin Galia asked what to do.....I said simply keep holding and buy when the price stabilises, as one is getting milk at the price of water, at the CMP. During the December, 2008, quarter, Saptashva Solar SL, a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, has commenced commercial production and earned, initial revenue of Rs.30.53 lacs through generation of solar power in Spain. This is wonderful news for the shareholders.

My earlier recommended Educomp Solutions Ltd moved up by a whooping 13.96%. What were paid groups asked to do with the Scrip??

My Intra-day calls on Chambal Fertiliser and Chemicals Ltd and Noida Toll Bridge Ltd gave good returns to the Paid Groups.
My recently recommened Indowind Energy Ltd and Marg Ltd gave good returns to the members of the Paid Groups. Moreover, most of the steel counters did well yesterday---but why?? What was mentioned in the Sunday Report on the general outlook of the Steel Sector??

My earlier recommended Sarda Energy and Power Ltd, Vijay Shanti Builders Ltd, Phoenix International Ltd, etc. did well yesterday.

Keep accumulating Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd, BGR Energy Systems Ltd, KEC International Ltd, CESC Ltd, Phoenix International Ltd, Selan Exploration Technology Ltd, English India Clays Ltd, etc, for some superb gains in the days to come.

Now how will the markets behave tomorrow and for the week ahead or which stocks to invest in the short term.....Is there a story brewing in one of my earlier recommended counters?? What the name of that scrip......All these are for the Paid Groups only.

Govt to provide more stimulus to push demand: Kamal Nath

Already two stimulus packages have been rolled out by the Centre to neutralize the impact of the global financial meltdown on the country

New Delhi: Worried over the slowdown in industrial production and declining exports, the government on Monday said it will continue to provide stimulus to the domestic industry.
“The government will continue to inject adequate funds into the economy and will continuously provide stimulus to the domestic demand-driven economy,” Commerce Minister Kamal Nath told reporters on the sidelines of CII’s India-Africa Partnership Summit here.
The government, he added, is “putting in money in long-term developmental projects to ensure that the global economic crisis does not impact India in any serious manner.”
Already two stimulus packages have been rolled out by the Centre to neutralise the impact of the global financial meltdown on the country and the Reserve Bank of India, through a series of monetary steps, released about Rs3,20,000 crore in the system.
Nath said that India is likely to receive Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) of about $30 billion during 2008-09. The government had set a FDI target of $35 billion for the fiscal.
“I hope we will exceed $30 billion. I do believe that momentum will continue. This year there will be growth...but may not be huge,” he said.
Total FDI during April-December 2008 worked out to be $18.7 billion, he said, adding it was double compared with the same period last year.
When asked about his expectations from the RBI in its quarterly review of the credit policy scheduled later this month, Nath said, “There is room for greater liquidity. RBI will certainly consider this and devise commensurate policy for injection of liquidity into the economy”.
Asked whether declining inflation will have an impact on interest rate, he said “falling inflation obviously leads to that.”
Noting that the RBI policy in the past few months had led to greater injection of liquidity, he said “it is now being reflected in greater comfort level of industry...some of the sectors have started showing upturn.”
Inflation has come down to 5.24% in January from the peak of 12.91% in August last, raising hopes for further cut in the key policy ratios and rates in the forthcoming review of the credit policy.

Dish TV eyeing 9 mn subscribers by 2010

Chennai: Direct-To-Home service provider and part of the Essel Group, Dish TV on Monday, said it was aiming at nearly doubling its subscriber base to nine million by next year.

"Currently we have around 4.8 million subscribers (in the country) and in the last three months alone we have added one million subscribers... by this financial year we are expecting to add another two million subscribers and achieve a target of nine million subscribers by 2010," Dish TV chief operating officer VK Gupta told reporters here.

He said the company would also be able to achieve a target revenue of Rs 800 crore. However, he declined to divulge details of last year's revenue.

The revenue generated from Value Added Services was only less than two per cent of the total revenue and Dish TV had set a target of increasing it to five per cent in this fiscal.

"As for as VAS is concerned it has got a slower penetration (in country) and once the DTH services pickup, it would also increase," he said.

The company has also planned to introduce a new VAS in tourism category shortly, Gupta said declining to elaborate.

Currently under VAS, the company offers Movie-on-Demand (MOD), Bhakti services, matrimony, banking and games, he said.

Replying to a question, Gupta said Dish TV currently had a market share of 48 per cent and the South zone contributed around 30 per cent of this.

As part of its expansion plans, the company had planned to increase its dealership network from the present 45,000 to two lakh by 2010. "I want to reach two lakh dealerships network by next year" he said.

In a bid to woo subscribers in Tamil Nadu, the company would introduce new Tamil channels. "We are holding discussions on this and very soon new channels will be added to the Tamil bouquet," he said.

The company currently offers 220 channels for its subscribers and hoped to increase it to 400 in near future.

Gupta was here to officially launch the Free Recharge coupon which enables a subscriber to get "Free A-La-Carte" packs and Movie-on-Demand (MOD) worth the same amount of recharge value.

If a subscriber buys a Rs 200 denomination recharge pack, he would be able to get free value worth of same amount where 20 per cent of the value would go for A-La-Carte packs and the remaining 80 per cent to MOD category, he said.

He said for all the denominations which range between Rs 200 to Rs 1800, the recharge free benefits apply and 100 per cent value would be returned back to the subscriber.

Rolta India Ltd
Industry : Software - Medium / Small BSE Code : 500366
House     : Indian Private NSE Code : ROLTA

Quarterly Results

Quarters:      
Particulars Dec 2008 Sep 2008 Jun 2008 Mar 2008 Dec 2007 Sep 2007
Gross Sales 224.77 251.52 219.45 225.83 212.29 193.35
Other Income 10.13 14.52 -19.93 10.20 9.93 10.29
Total Income 234.90 266.04 199.52 236.03 222.22 203.64
Total Expenditure 123.76 174.42 91.23 113.82 111.98 103.09
PBIDT 111.14 91.62 108.29 122.21 110.24 100.55
Interest 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
PBDT 110.00 91.62 108.29 122.21 110.24 100.55
Depreciation 40.13 36.98 37.55 33.46 33.22 31.16
Tax 9.80 10.00 15.96 10.00 9.00 8.00
Deferred Tax 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Reported Profit After Tax 60.07 44.64 54.78 78.75 68.02 61.39

Net profit of Rolta India Ltd declined 11.69% to Rs.60.07 Cr in the quarter ended December 2008 as against Rs.68.02 Cr during the previous quarter ended December 2007; which is better than the market expectation. Sales however rose 5.88% to Rs.224.77 Cr in the quarter ended December 2008 as against Rs.212.29 Cr during the previous quarter ended December 2007. The Infact, the consolidated results are much better than the standalone and which are given below: The consolidated results for the Quarter ended December 31, 2008: The Group has posted a Net Profit after tax, minority interest & exceptional items of Rs 60.56 Cr for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 as compared to Rs 60.22 Cr for the quarter ended December 31, 2007. Total Income has increased from Rs 251.94 Cr for the quarter ended December 31, 2007 to Rs 371.45 Cr for the quarter ended December 31, 2008 It is to be noted that Rolta Ltd derives 60% of its revenues from the domestic market and hence is better placed than most of the peer group companies like Infosys Technologies Ltd, Wipro Ltd, etc. which derives majority of its revenues from the overseas. The Indian Economy is doing much better than the US or the European economies and hence this gives additional advantage to Rolta Ltd. Moreover, Indo-US Civil and Nuclear Co-operation is favorable to the company.

The results of Rolta Ltd are above expectations, as can be seen from above. Good point is that PBIDT of the Company for Q3FY09 is higher at Rs.111.14 Cr as compared to the same quarter previous year. This means even in this downturn the company came out with higher profit.

The Profit after Tax or Net Profit is almost flat in Q3FY09 as compared to the same period previous year--Remember this is when the software sector is under turmoil and when the company had higher tax, higher depreciation, higher expenditure and higher interest outgo.

The company announced the acquisition of Piocon Technologies Inc, a specialist information technology (IT) firm and a solution provider for oil and gas refineries; after trading hours on Monday, 29 December 2008. The company provides IT-based solutions and services to the geospatial and engineering segments. Unlike most Indian IT firms, Rolta derives 60% of its revenues from the domestic market. This enables it to mitigate currency risks.

Rolta Ltd's acquisition of the Piocon Technologies, Inc. of Chicago II, USA could be a turning point. Through this strategic move, Rolta has acquired the unique template-based solution that addresses critical operational needs of refineries in the Oil & Gas sector. This solution is field proven, and has been deployed successfully in multiple refining facilities of one of the world's largest oil companies. The solution was recognized by Oracle with the Titan award for Piocon's innovative approach to integrating business intelligence tools with enterprise-level engineering databases and applications to provide operational excellence, reliability metrics and reporting for more than 100,000 pieces of equipment and hundreds of operations throughout the large refinery.

The Piocon acquisition is a part of Rolta's systematic growth plans to provide configurable solutions that address the real challenges faced by industry today. With Piocon, Rolta has acquired its impressive track record of over 15 years, a significant customer base including Fortune 100 companies, highly experienced consultants, unique methodologies and technologies ongoing customer contracts and profitable revenue stream in a fast growing market.

The stock of Rolta Ltd after such results is expected move above Rs.100 in the next few days. Software companies generally have good fourth quarter, as most of the revenues come in this period. The market was expecting a much worst results which caused a heavy unwinding in the scrip some days back.

Today my latest Sunday Report (18th January, 2008) recommended Nava Bharat Ventures Ltd (BSE Code->513023) moved up by more than 3%. The research report on the company would soon be placed here in this blog.

Moreover, today, my earlier recommended English Indian Clays Ltd, Accurate Transformers Ltd, Deccan Chronicle Ltd, Mid-day Multimedia Ltd, TV Today Ltd, SAIL, Electrotherm Ltd, etc. did well....