WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT:

As expected the Crude Oil prices prices tumbeld in the International Markets to close at $120.81 (when this report is being written) before briefly crashing below $120 per barrel. My target on the Crude Oil crashing below $120 and settling briefly around $110 per barrel still holds. I have been predicting this target when the Crude Oil was at around $147 per barrel & was vaccilating dangerously to cross $150 per barrel: The "Quickie Call" GHCL Ltd hit the buyer freeze with good volume. But why?? The business channels tried to fathom something on the scrip but could not get anything from the promoters, hahaaaaa!!!!. This is the repeat of the last week when the "Quickie Call" Ashariya Telecom Ltd hit the buyer freeze: Why did this week's micro-cap "Quickie Call", Refnol Resin and Chemicals Ltd, hit the buyer freeze??

My Sunday Report call U B Engineering Ltd hit the buyer freeze but then is it safe to hold it still?? Who is playing with the stock?? When will that big bull leave the stock like what happened in Sathavahana Ispat Ltd, where a sell call was given in the Sunday Report after a big bull from Bombay exited. Most of the Paid Members also exited the scrip yesterday taking the help of the buoyancy in the counter, making huge money.

Is the Steel Story still looking good?? Yes or No?? I think the Paid Members were informed about that......:

What is the next big Real Estate Story from the South India (the stock in question is near its 52-Week low price and is expected to become double in the next couple of months), after my Kamanwala Housing gave enough to the investors. If you remember I was the first person to say Kamanwala Housing would come out with Bonus issue.

Today my Friend Ashish Chugh came out with a buy report on Kamanwala Housing Construction Ltd. He also came out with a buy report on another of my recommended counters, Selan Exploration Technologies Ltd, which I recommended at arond Rs.72 and Rs.87 in 2007. Should we invest in all the Real Estate Counters?? Yes or No??!!!! If Yes, in which stocks???!!!

Why is Sahyadri Industries Ltd (another recommended counter) hitting buyer freezes?? What is the target of Kavveri Telecom Products Ltd, which was recommended this week on the Sunday Report??? What is so special about Kavveri Telecom Products Ltd???

What is the new story in H S India Ltd (Hotel Silver Ltd & BSE Code-->532145), especially in light of its location in Surat, Gujarat??!!

Why did Indo Borax and Chemicals Ltd, my recommended scrip on this Saturday to the Paid Members hit the buyer freeze?? What is the new story in the counter???!!!

Now with buoyancy coming in the markets which has been mentioned on the Sunday Report, the "Cats and Dogs" have started to rise again. Avoid falling in the Operators' trap/hand or else all your hard work will be doomed and you will be left with illiquid counters:

Is it safe to play on the Sugar Counters?? Why did Sugar Stocks started to rally suddenly out of blue?? Is the move justified or one should exit sugar counters on every rally??!!

Jolly Board recommended to the Paid and Free members hit the buyer freeze yesterday. The stock if you remember was recommened around Rs.2400, some weeks back:

My Recommended Tulsiyan NEC, Western India Shipyard, Khoday Ltd, NEPC India Ltd, Nagpur Power Ltd etc. hit the buyer freeze yesterday:

What has happened to Nikunj Dalmia of NDTV Profit?? Without him Namrata Brar looks a little pale, since Prashant Nair lacks Nikunj's sly wit. On the other side of the fense, Udayan and Mitali combination have again started to do well, with the latter scoring some brownie points over the former. She has also improved her poise, a bit, in the last few weeks. But she should be a little more confident about herself, like Namrata Brar of NDTV Profit:

The excerpts of my latest Sunday Report sent to Paid Members:

The markets are expected to be less volatile next week: Small and Mid Caps will shine:

In the last week the markets moved in a rangebound trend amidst occasional bouts of volatility and choppiness. However, the things did not take too ugly turn even though F & O settlement was knocking at the door. Selling pressure and profit booking surfaced at higher levels as the markets continued to lack confidence at these levels. Incidentally, FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment but were net buyers in the derivatives segment, which implies that shorts which were being created are being covered. Mutual Funds, however, remained net buyers during the week, giving some solace in these conditions.

Crude oil prices which corrected to around $120 per barrel suddenly bounced to $126 levels only to fall again as the global slowdown is expected to pull down the demand for oil going forward. The Crude Oil is expected to settle around $110---$120 mark before crashing $100 mark in the coming months.

The inflation moved higher to rise to 11.98% for the week ended 19th July, 2008. There is a famous saying that ...........The same thought seems to be guiding our RBI governor while preparing the first quarter review of monetary policy. Economic growth rate does not affect the common man on the street directly and immediately but soaring price does---this could be the theme of both the RBI boss and the FM. The RBI continued to take measures to arrest the rising inflation by raising the Repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 9% with immediate effect and CRR by 25 bps.

The impact of rate hike was further buttressed by the RBI’s lower GDP projection of 8 per cent, down from 8.0 -8.5 per cent earlier, clearly indicating that it is planning to control the inflation at the cost of Growth. Now, the inflation rate is projected close to 7% by end March 2009, which is still higher from earlier target of five per cent. Now with RBI’s forecast of higher than anticipated inflation, and lower than expected growth, which was coupled with the tough medicine by the way of double dose is not so sweet.

At present, the domestic macroeconomic signals remain ambiguous and there is no clarity on the global scenario hence the current increase in monetary measures could backfire if such strong measures hits the supply side factors leading to more trouble; but apparently it seems that RBI is has done its best to contain the inflation sacrificing the growth momentum.

Now, whether the long-term gain will be worth the short-term pain or whether it will prove excessive is something we will know only later, but for the moment due to RBI’s inflation management policy the markets could get jitters on its way up.

However, I think the interest rate has more or less peaked out and hence the impact on interest sensitive sectors like Auto and Real Estate will not be that severe as was in the previous occasions; though these sectors would continue to slow unless we move towards a softer interest rate regime.

The earnings season is going on and it seems the companies have performed above expectation in some of the cases. Now as far as the Q1FY09 results are concerned, much was talked about the earning downgrades. But the results are out and a study of 1114 companies which have announced results so far shows that, although the figures are not great these are better than expectations. Here the 1114 companies have posted a topline of growth of 28.41 per cent and bottomline growth of just 5.93 per cent. Now at the first go this does not appear good. But the impact on overall bottomline has been caused by Oil marketing companies........... But there are certain alarming factors, ......................... The interest cost for India Inc too has gone up by 30.77%. Even on adjusting for interest cost of banks and financial institutions, the net interest cost shoot up by 72.23%. Regarding the performance of Sensex based companies, 27 companies have announced the results and have posted a topline growth of 25.56 per cent and bottomline growth of 15.58%. Now the Q1FY09 results have been better than expectation.

But the moot question is, is it sustainable? .......For the April-June quarter of 2008-09, oil imports grew by 50.2 per cent to $ 25.52 billion from $16.99 billion in the corresponding period last year. The Indian crude basket for the April-June quarter this year stood at $ 118.50 per barrel.

Indian consumers are likely to have their rendezvous with 3G telecom services in the next six months. The telecom minister Mr. A. Raja announced the most eagerly awaited norms of 3G spectrums. As per the announcement, the government will hold a global auction for high-speed third-generation (3G) mobile services and have five operators initially. “India has 60 MHz of 3G spectrum available and will allow both GSM and CDMA 3G services.” he said. India's huge labour force - including its supply, skill level and cost, has placed India as the second best country for business investment as per the new survey of American corporate executives conducted by Development Counselors International.

On the commodity front, ambiguous trend has occurred in gold and crude oil. US fed meeting, which is scheduled on Tuesday, will give a crucial movements to these commodities, priced in dollar. If they keep the interest rate unchanged then it will give marginal strength to gold and crude. Progress of monsoon is gearing up kharif sowing across the country. News of sowing progress is likely to weigh on agri commodities futures.

Coming back to the markets, with no major triggers available in the near term much will depend on the performance of global markets. As regards the expected movement, we expect the market to be range bound with slight positive bias unless the Crude Oil shoots up. However, it is now important that the participation by the retail investors increases.

The markets continued to witness lower volumes on days with positive closing and higher volumes on days with a negative close, which indicates lack of confidence and tentative sentiment at higher levels. It is important that the markets witness improvement in participation for any sustainable rally to unfold.

The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to 1.33 from 1.31. End of week maximum stocks had positive trend of change in put call open interest ratio. The open interest for the index at the end of this week has decreased by –4.24% as compared to the previous week. All Future stocks saw changes in their open interest ranging from 162.86% to –87.73%. INDIACEM saw the highest change in its open interest in positive side while RANBAXY saw the biggest decline in open interest as compared to other stocks.

On the upside, the Sensex faces resistance at the 14670 and 15000 levels but has support at the 14140 and 13990 levels. On the upside, the Nifty faces resistance at the 4480 and 4640 levels. Investors are suggested to follow an immediate trading range of (4250-4700). A penetration below 4250 should be seen as an indication of fresh weakness percolating back to the system and would warrant a caution against long positions. The volatility in Nifty may settle down. The markets are expected to remain relatively less volatile as compared to what we have seen in the recent past. Moreover, the undertone of the market looks less bearish and we may see some renewed strength in the market.

Investors should buy stocks which are fundamentally strong and not follow some tips from some unknown guys, like I saw someone giving a buy call on Cubex Tubings Ltd (BSE Code--->526027), when the copper prices are shooting over the roof and there is a heavy fluctuation of the foreign currency. The company’s June, 2008 quarter results are in shambles with the EPS nose-diving to Rs.1.03 from Rs.4. Those who are holding this stock should exit immediately as it could fall to Rs.45 or even lower in the short term. The vertical rise on the stock is not due to change in fundamentals or improve in fundamentals but due to operator movement.

In another case I found Sambhav Media being referred as Penny stock, when it has Rs.1, as face value and not Rs.10. So the effective price should be Rs.26, if we consider Rs.10 face value. Till today I did not understand what a Penny Stock means; the term has been imported from abroad to confuse the investors. I asked many analysts what they mean when they say “Penny Stock” but none could give a convincing definition. So it is better to avoid this ambiguous term.