SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

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By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 31, 2022

Crude Oil Check Generally, the crude oil price tends to hold up for few weeks, before giving a pronounced break out in either direction. In the current scenario, the crude oil price is breaking one levels after another, since the war drums in Europe sounded. Taking cues from this, we can say that crude prices may hover between $106 - $113, for sometime, before giving a decisive breakout on the upside. Photo : Macrotrends.com. The war Between Ukraine - Russia will go on for atleast a few months, with sanctions crippling the 2nd biggest producer of crude oil. I feel it is pertinent to mention here that generally speaking, after - effects of sanctions generally come with a couple of months phase gap. Which means the crude oil may start to march aggressively ahead towards north, from May 2022 end. I'm expecting the crude oil to touch at $130 a barrel in the near future, breaking which it may try to access $137/139 range. Hence, take your position in crude oil related (dri...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 29, 2022

Crude Oil Price Crude oil prices began the week lower as a result of the start of a lockdown in Shanghai due to a high number of Covid infections, rekindling concerns about a loss of oil demand in the world's largest importer. But this view is over exaggerated, as Covid - 19 vaccination will prevent a 2020/2021 like situation. Hence, I don't foresee a large fall in demand for crude oil, especially as the oil guzzling counties like India has started to see a demand spike. Above is the three months chart of Crude Oil (WTI) price from Investing.com. Meanwhile, in a rather volatile trading session on Tuesday, crude oil prices rebounded and rose, despite the fact that Ukraine and Russia were heading for peace talks, and demand concerns remained as China shut down its financial hub in Shanghai to stem a surge in coronavirus cases. While the benchmark Brent crude oil price fell early on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session, it recovered and was last up nearly ...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 28, 2022

Tit - bits 🌟After a two-year hiatus, Indian skies have reopened to scheduled international flights. The start of scheduled international passenger flights signals the end of air transport bubbles, which came into fore in mid-2020. The resumption of international flights will provide more travel options for passengers, which will likely translate into increased revenue opportunities for airline companies who at the moment, are grappling with high fuel prices. The travel industry, which was severely impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, is expected to see a rapid recovery in demand. Stocks in focus: Positive effect could be seen in the stock prices of: Indigo (Rs.1,938.20), Spice Jet (Rs.56.90) and Jet Airways (Rs.86.75). Rub off effect: Global Vectra Helicorp Ltd (Rs.48.55). 🌟The high crude oil prices could increase investments in exploration of crude oil, which in turn will move up per day rates of oil rig maintenance and seismic survey companies. Stocks in focus : Aban Off...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 25, 2022

Winning Strokes Dow Jones rose by 1.02% or 349.44 points to 34,707.94 while Nasdaq rose by 1.93% or 269.23 points to 14,191.84. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 2.37%. Photo : DailyFx Back home, according to a report published in The Hindu on 24 March: "In the COVID-19 year of 2020-21, both real GDP and GVA contracted by minus 6.6% and minus 4.8%, respectively. The NSO’s SAE show that real GDP and GVA growth are estimated to recover to 8.9% and 8.3%, respectively, in 2021-22. Despite this improvement, the magnitude of real GDP at ₹147.7 lakh crore in 2021-22 is only marginally higher than the corresponding level of ₹145.2 lakh crore in 2019-20. The NSO’s GDP data highlights that in 2021-22, the nominal GDP growth at 19.4% is significantly higher than the real GDP growth due to an inordinately high implicit price deflator (IPD)-based inflation rate of 9.6%. Monetary policy authorities need to take note of this. However, the growth of consumption and investment dema...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 21, 2022

Global Vectra Helicorp Ltd: Buy CMP: Rs.49.45 Book Value: Rs.34.21 Sector P/E: 49.04 Market Cap: Rs.69 crore. Introduction : Global Vectra Helicorp Limited (GVHL) is India's largest private helicopter company, with over two decades of experience providing professional, safe, and accident-free helicopter services. The Company's operations include support for India's offshore oil and gas industry, onshore operations for state governments (VIP flying), election flying, and other rotary services. It is also pioneer in the use of helicopters to conduct specialised aerial geophysical surveys and, more recently, in the provision of power industry support services. Photo : Helis.com Interestingly, GVIL, the India’s largest private helicopter company, has fleet of over 20 aircraft, including Bell Helicopters (Bell 412), Airbus Helicopters (H155B1, H135P2, H130T2 and AS350B3) and AgustaWestl and Helicopters (AW 139). The fleet of helicopters, which range from small light helicopt...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 16, 2022

Future Retail Vs Amazon: My Take: We are all aware of the fact that Future Retail Limited is embroiled in a legal battle with US retailer Amazon over the sale of assets to Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Retail for Rs.24,713 crore. Photo : Quint Yesterday, the Supreme Court heard Amazon's challenge to the Delhi High Court's order staying further arbitration proceedings with the Future Group before the Singapore Arbitration Tribunal. During yesterday's (Supreme) Court proceedings, Future Retail's counsel informed the bench that his client is bankrupt and that Amazon has brought the company to its knees. Meanwhile, Amazon's counsel stated that talks between the parties to resolve legal disputes had failed, and that Reliance is taking over Future's stores. Surprisingly, Harish Salve, the counsel for the Future Group, added, "Not a single store has been surrendered, and Reliance has taken away the lease." Interestingly, both parties' counsel agreed to ...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 14, 2022

Winning Strokes The domestic bourses are in the Green today, after positive news flow from Ukraine - Russian war front. The BSE Sensex was seen trading at 56,177.05 up 626.75 points (+1.13%), while the Nifty was seen at 16,778.35, up 147.90 points (+0.89%). The markets are likely to consolidate for few more days in the current ranges due to seasonal factors. You should however, pick up good stocks from the small and mid cap space, for the rally to start from the last week of March, 2022. # Today's call : When Crude Oil is raging high in the international markets, and BGR Energy Ltd (Rs.102) is hitting continuous buyer Freezes, we can focus on a company which provides energy services. Buy the shares of Asian Energy Services Ltd near Rs.114/115 for medium term targets of Rs.170/172. SL: Rs.107. Photo: Way2moneymarket.com #The stock of Future Retail Ltd (Rs.44.40) came down, intraday, due to uncertainties surrounding 15 March, 2022 court verdict. However, it is now, more or less a Mu...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 11, 2022

Winning Strokes The markets are trading in the green as of now. The BSE Sensex was seen trading at 55,561.78 up 97.39 points (+0.18%), while the Nifty was seen at 16,636.00, up 41.10 points (+0.25%). I feel over the next few days, the indices will consolidate around the current ranges, while we will continue to see stock specific actions. Photo : News8Plus . #The shares of Bombay Rayon and Fashions Ltd (Rs.7.95) Freezed in NSE. Keep holding for targets mentioned earlier. #The stock of A2Z Infra Engineering Ltd (Rs.10.90) hit another consecutive buyer Freeze. We are likely to see further positive action in the counter. It is a huge company and hence we can expect good returns in the near future. #Risk taking investors can buy or average out, the shares of Future Retail Ltd (Rs.46.40). I feel the game is over for Amazon and the Apex Court is likely to give a favorable view on 15 March, 2022. Mukhesh Ambani, is tightening his grip over the company and soon we may hear the news of ...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - March 10, 2022

Winning Strokes The India bourses are roaring, after some respite came on the war front. The BSE Sensex was up by 828.39 points (+1.52%) to 55,475.72, while Nifty was seen trading at 16,592.80 up 247.45 points (+1.51%). With minimum negative news coming from the Ukraine - Russia border issues, we can expect some more upward movement in the indices. # Today's call: Buy the shares of SAIL near Rs.98, for short term targets of Rs.127/131. The new plant of SAIL at Rourkela, Odisha is generating good demands for its products as it uses the latest technology to manufacture (flat products, coils, etc). Meanwhile, the commodity prices are shooting over the roof in the international markets. #As expected the shares of A2Z Infra Engineering Ltd (Rs.10.40), hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade. It is a huge company, whose operations got hit due to Covid - 19 pandemic. However, the condition of the world is improving day by day, we are likely to see good performance of the company goi...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - February 22, 2022

Winning Strokes Yesterday, the domestic bourses closed in the red following the Ukraine - Russia border tussle. The BSE Sensex closed at 57,683.59 down 149.38 points (-0.26%), while the Nifty ended the day almost flat at 17,206.65 down 69.65 points (-0.40%). However, the selling was more pronounced in the small and mid cap segments, due to the IMAGINARY FEAR of escalation of the crisis. Interestingly, this kind of border skirmishes are regular in India (with Pakistan) in the north western and western side of Indian border. Kashmir Issue continues to drain India's resources, but we see no impact on the world economy. But surprisingly, this issue between Ukraine & Russia is getting blown out of proportion, due to highhandedness of the media. The world media should behave responsibly, so that peace returns smoothly. It is pertinent to mention that Ukraine is a very small country, with its GDP size [ 184.92 billion (nominal, 2022 est.) ] of less than that of Uttar Pradesh [...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - February 21, 2022

Winning Strokes The BSE Sensex is last seen trading vat 57,845.62, up 12.65 points (+0.02%), while the Nifty was seen trading at 17,269.65 up 8.45 points (+0.05%), from the Friday's close. The Nifty as expected took support at 17250 level. If 17200/17250 range holds then we could see a sharp reversal in the coming days. Keep accumulating those stocks which have a story to tell. #Buy the scrip of HOV Services Ltd near Rs.50/51, SL: Rs.47 (Strict on closing basis), T: Rs.61/63/72. This is a high Beta stock, which means it rises more when the Indices rises. #The stock of Bombay Rayon and Fashions Ltd (Rs.7.40) is available at an attractive valuation, for long term prospects. As mentioned umpteen number of times, it has a huge factory at Boisar West (near Tarapur Atomic Power Plant) and also another one in Bangalore. The company as per my sources in Mumbai Metropolis (Read Boisar) is doing fine at the moment, though its Mask 😷 Making Division is facing stiff competition from Me - t...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - February 15, 2022

Winning Strokes The Sensex from the morning trade and is now trading at 58,017.10, up a whopping 1,611.26 points (+2.86%), while the Nifty was last seen at 17,312.50 ,up 469.70 points (+2.79%). I had mentioned through my Facebook post, that the Financial markets should not worry much of the fallout of any Russia - Ukraine war, the latter's economy is very small. I'm happy to see the markets react positively to my comments. #Since the tensions around the Russia - Ukraine border has eased a bit, so we can expect the price of Crude Oil to tape off in the coming days. Hence, you can take fresh positions in Global Vectra Helicorp Ltd (Rs.53.70), for targets of Rs.120/180. The the newly formed Helicopter policy is likely to benefit the company. #In a development, today I spoke with my sources in Shriram EPC Ltd in Chennai (Rs.8.65) and I must say, the scenario (or the news) is very good. I can't disclose in an open forum due to SEBI restrictions. The company's Decem...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - February 07, 2022

Winning Strokes The domestic bourses are now trading deep in the red. The BSE Sensex is now trading at 57,950.99 down 707.21 points (-1.18%), while the Nifty is trading at 17,313.55 down 209.05 points (-1.16%). The Nifty is likely to get support at 17200/17250 ranges. This is a buy on declines market. # Bombay Rayon and Fashions Ltd freezed at Rs.8.55. The stock is out of the Z - group and has opened a retail store in Bangalore. It is now a holding company like my other recommended counter, Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd. BRFL Textiles Private Ltd. BRFL Textiles Private Ltd. (BTPL), housing the largest single-roof fabric processing unit in India, has completed an INR 2.4 Bn equity infusion from a consortium of marquee financial investors led by JM Financial India Fund II (an Indian growth private equity fund), Think Investments (a San Francisco-based investment firm), and others. Keep adding in declines for targets of Rs.11/12. Photo: Newly opened retail store in Bangalore. # A...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - January 31, 2022

Winning Strokes On last Friday, the BSE Sensex closed at 57,200.23 down 76.71 points (-0.13%), while the Nifty ended the day at 17,101.95 down 8.20 points (-0.05%). The spot Nifty is likely to slowly crawl towards 18300/18500 ranges in the coming days, in the hope of a spending oriented budget. #The shares of Shriram EPC Ltd (Rs.9.70) hit the UC on last Friday. We can look for targets of Rs.31/35 in the coming days, as the company infuses Rs.700 crore into its balance sheet. #The stock of Global Vectra Helicorp Ltd, India's largest Helicopter player, closed at Rs.58.95 in the NSE. According to the BSE website it has a CEPS (TTM) of Rs.41.70 . Also, the Q2FY22 results were excellent on Y - o - Y basis. I ts net debt is only Rs.26.50 crores. Moreover, under the new Helicopter policy, the government will establish a dedicated helicopter acceleration cell within the Civil Aviation Ministry to address issues affecting the helicopter industry. There will be no landing fees or par...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - January 25, 2022

Winning Strokes The Sensex is trading at 56,983.83 down 495.61 points (-0.88%), while the Nifty is seen at 17,014.75 down 129.85 points (-0.78%). The Nifty is likely to get strong supports around 16700/16900 ranges, hence is not likely to break in this corrective phase. Meanwhile, the yields on U.S. government bonds fell sharply to begin the week on Monday, as global equities nosedived, but quickly recovered. Investors are anticipating the Fed policymakers' two-day meeting, which begins on Tuesday and concludes on Wednesday. This meeting is widely expected to lay the groundwork for a shift away from easy money stance, this year, without taking any policy action. The rising global tensions and increased volatility in domestic and international stock markets are likely to continue to anchor the Bond yields lower. In another significant developments, the economic reports released on Monday, showed that the U.S. economy slowed in January as the pandemic's (COVID-19) Omicr...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - January 18, 2022

Winning Strokes The India stock markets have recovered from the morning blues. The BSE Sensex was last seen trading at 61,359.93 up 51.02 points (+0.08%), while the Nifty was seen trading at 18,304.85 up 2.75 points (+0.02%). While the Nifty is likely to trade in a range, we are likely to witness a pre budget rally in the mid, small and micro cap counters. Buy good stocks and keep holding till the budget date. #My Strongly recommended Silgo Retail Ltd hit the buyer Freeze today at Rs.41.60. the stock was recommended in this blog around Rs.33.70. I'm looking for targets of Rs.51/52. #Buy the shares of Shriram EPC Ltd at Rs.10, T: Rs.17/21. There are media reports that the Shriram Group is in talks to exit Orient Green Power Ltd (Rs.23.50). Interestingly, the Shriram Group through Shriram EPC, is currently the largest shareholder of Orient Green Power Ltd with a 49% stake in it. Hence, this value unlocking could give a huge boost to the financials of Shriram EPC Ltd. P...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - January 14, 2022

Global Vectra Helicorp Ltd: Ready To Soar High CMP : Rs.61.85, T : Rs.91, SL : Rs.57. Introduction: Global Vectra Helicorp Limited (GVHL) is the largest private sector helicopter operator in India, with nearly two decades of experience in providing seamless, safe, and accident-free helicopter services. The Company's operations include offshore oil and gas support, onshore operations for state governments (VVIP flying), election flying, heli pilgrimage, and much more. The company is also a pioneer in the use of helicopters to conduct specialised aerial geophysical surveys and in the provision of power industry support services. GVHL is an ISO 9001-2015, ISO 14001-2015, and OHSAS 45001-2018 certified Company. These certifications overarch all GVHL activities, including flight operations, engineering, safety, quality control and commercial systems. GVHL is a long-term Corporate Member of the Rotary Wing Society of India (RWSI) and a member of Hel...

By Sumon Mukhopadhyay - January 12, 2022

Winning Strokes The benchmark indices continued to move up today. The BSE Sensex was last seen at 61,074.76 up 457.87 points (+0.76%), while the Nifty was trading at 18,189.10 up 133.35 points (+0.74%). However, correction is seen in the mid and small caps, especially those hitting continuous UCs. In this circumstances, I would suggest you to book continuous profits as the indices are near all time highs. Also, slowly get out of the junk (momentum) counters and now enter only fundamentally strong scrips. Today, I'm having mild fever and hence, I wouldn't make this write up too long. #Exit out of the shares of Wockhardt Ltd (Rs.420) , with minimum loss. #Accumulate UCO Bank Ltd (Rs.13.35) , for targets mentioned earlier. This share will give good returns over a period, as the government is likely to do bank capitalisation in this quarter. #Book profits in A2Z Infra Engineering Ltd (Rs.13.75). #Book 80% profits in Suzlon Energy Ltd (Rs.11.85). Hold the rest with a...

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