SumanSpeaks: The Information Super Highway

Pre-budget expectation ~Mr. Hareesh V, Research Head, Geofin Comtrade Ltd Photo : Fort Worth The Union budget 2015-16 will be tabled in Lok Sabha by Honorable Finance Minister Mr. Arun Jaitley on Saturday, 28th February. There is a wide anticipation from various sectors that the government will take suitable steps to fire up the economic growth. Anyhow market participants are expecting a positive action, especially considering the interest of the public and traders and not just economics and policy in the budget. The major anticipation from the commodity sector is as follows. SEBI-FMC MERGER Expectations are high in the market that the government may announce SEBI and FMC merger in the upcoming budget as recommended by BN Srikrishna, head of Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission. Earlier, in 2009, Raghuram Ranjan Committee on financial sector reforms had suggested consolidation of market regulation and supervision under SEBI. The FMC-SEBI merger is likely to...

Gitanjali Gems Ltd: Buy CMP: Rs.53.35 Till recently, Mehul C Choksi, the promoter & managing director of Gitanjali Gems, was easily India's best known jeweler. He had a host of brands (Nakshatra, Gilli, Asmi and d'Damas, among others), endorsed by a bevy of celebrities, in his portfolio. While Gitanjali Gem's growth has been remarkable under Choksi, the p roblems started to arise in May 2013 when the Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, in an attempt to contain the current account deficit, imposed severe restrictions on the gold business. This caused a crash in share prices of jewellers and triggered margin calls. Choksi, who had mortgaged shares to lenders, saw the Gitanjali Gems stock fall ~90 per cent.  Choksi has since attempted to change the business model of Gitanjali Gems, which does annual business of around Rs.10,000 crore (FY14 revenue is Rs.12,436 Cr), from domestic to greater focus on exports (he has already raised the contribution of exports...

Jaypee Infratech Ltd: Buy CMP: Rs.20.15 J aypee Infratech (JPIN) was incorporated on 5 April 2007 as a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for implementation, operation, and maintenance of 165 kilometer long 6-lane Access-Controlled Yamuna Expressway in the state of Uttar Pradesh connecting Noida and Agra. The company is undertaking the ribbon development on 6175 acres at five locations along the expressway for commercial, industrial, institutional, residential and recreational purposes. JPIN is a subsidiary of the Jaypee Group, a diversified infrastructure conglomerate in India with interests in Engineering & Construction, Power, Cement, Real Estate, Hospitality, Expressways, Sports & Education (not-for-profit). Triggers :  (i) Jaypee Infratech Ltd, offers a unique synergistic business model of infrastructure development (Yamuna Expressway) and real estate value unlocking. Yamuna Expressway of length 165 km is the longest access-controlled six-lane BOT project connec...

Market Mantra Unitech ltd the upper circuits at Rs.21.20 and is now trading at Rs.21.15. The scrip is just below my first target of Rs.22. Western India Shipyard today touched Rs.3.11 and is now trading at around Rs.3.06 on budget expectations for the shipping sector. The scrip has already given more than 50% returns in just 3 days.  Today's Call : (i) Buy Jaypee Infrastructure Ltd at Rs.20.15-20.25, for a target of Rs.22-23. Today most of the stocks in the infrastructure space are moving up. Jaypee Infrastructure Ltd though is up around 3.60% but it is much below than its peers like J P Power Ltd (Rs.12.39, up 5.09%) or J P Associates Ltd (Rs.26.35 up 6.46%). Hence buy the scrip for a target above Rs.32. Infact I would suggest all of  you to buy J P Group stocks before the budget.  (ii) Buy Gitanjali Gems Ltd at Rs.53, for a target of Rs.62. It is expected that the government is coming up with some sops for the gems and jewelry space, including reduction of i...

DO YOU KNOW? Rolta Ltd was recommended around Rs.67-67.50 on January 15, 2013. The scrip made a 52-week high today, i.e. 26 February, 2015 at Rs.161.10 . In view of NDA Government's thrust on the defense and IT sectors, Rolta Ltd remains a top bet.  The investors are suggested to buy the scrip on all declines or at least hold for a long term target of Rs.350-400.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT Western India Shipyard Ltd, an ABG Shipyard group company today hit the 2nd consecutive 20% buyer freeze. The company has a huge open space (sea facing) which can be used for commercial exploitation. Moreover, any positive development on the mining front will be directly proportional for the company. There were earlier media reports that the government of India might lower export duty for low grade iron ore fines. Once the iron ore exports start, the Mormugao port will become very active again. Western India Shipyard Limited (WISL), India's largest composite ship & rig repair facility in the private sector, is one of the world's advanced multi-dimensional and multi-purpose yard offering modern, streamlined, sophisticated ship & rig repair facilities and industrial services.WISL is strategically located at Mormugao Port Goa along the west coast of India. The scrip could touch Rs.4.5-5, in the short to medium term--stay invested.  ...

RASOYA PROTEINS LTD: INDECISION The scrip of Rasoya Proteins Ltd, which though tanked at the end of the day, with good volume but the percentage of Deliverable Quantity to Traded Quantity was just 45.62%. The risk taking traders are therefore, are suggested not to jump to take fresh positions but look at opportunities for re-entry.  Fundamentally speaking, Rasoya Proteins Ltd is a profit making entity which has embarked on a Rs.400 Cr expansion plan. According to The Times of India, 30th December, 2014, the Nagpur-based Rasoya Proteins' solvent extraction plant set to start production soon. Rasoya Proteins Ltd posted net profit after taxes, minority interest and share of profit / (loss) of associates of Rs.34.105 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2014 as compared to net profit of Rs.182.330 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2013. Total Income has decreased from Rs.6735.609 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2013 to Rs.1780.321 mn for the quarter ...

Nitin Gadkari: Rs 10 lakh crore investment in highways, shipping by 2019 New Delhi, Feb 22 : Unveiling plans for Rs 10 lakh crore investment in highways and shipping sectors by 2019, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari today said the face of India’s basic infrastructure will be changed in five years. ”My endeavour is to do work worth over Rs 5 lakh crore in highways sector during my present tenure. Another Rs 5 lakh crore will be invested in the shipping sector taking the investments in both the crucial infrastructure ministries to Rs 10 lakh crore,” Road Transport, Highways and Shipping Minister Gadkari told PTI in an interview here today. “I am sure this will change the face of the basic infrastructure in the five years as projects have already been fast-tracked while concerted efforts are on to remove all bottlenecks,” he added. Known as “flyover man from Maharashtra” for building a network of flyover in the state besides constructing the Mumbai-Pune Expressway during his stint a...

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT Rasoya Proteins Ltd tanked at the end of day to Re.45 in the NSE and Re.49 in the BSE, after one entity SHAH & SHAH sold 8482663 shares of the company at Re 0.49 per share on NSE today (Feb 25, 2015). There seems to be a pattern in selling but our regulators, who pesters innocent investors, if they hold around 80, 000 shares of Rohit Ferro Tech (this actually with one of my NRI friend cum client) are simply unmoved and quiet. If there is ghost in the medicine, how to cure the disease? I strongly feel that, now with an unprincipled Prime Minister, like Narendra Modi at the centre such things will only increase in future; unless something drastic happens. I know SEBI will shout fire, fire, when the horse has already bolted the door. It is to be understood that a stock cannot hit repeated LCs, not for days but for months, without the active help (Connivance) of the vested groups. I would therefore, suggest all, not to take fresh positions in ...

Market Mantra Unitech Ltd today moved to Rs.18.60 intra-day and is now trading around Rs.18.10. This company will be one of the biggest beneficiarires of the government of India's thrust in the AFFORDABLE HOUSING segment.  Western India Shipyard Ltd, a group company of ABG Shipyard Ltd today hit 20% upper circuits today at Rs.2.2.  Jindal Saw has fallen to some interesting levels at Rs.76.70 from where accumulation can be done for a target of Rs.92-97.  Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd hit the upper circuits in the NSE at Rs.2.20 and is now trading now trading at that level only. The scrip is moving up due to sudden change the sector outlook. There are media reports that the government of India could reduce export duty on low grade iron ore fines and bauxite.  Though the exchanges has sought a clarification on the share price movement but it is obvious that the scrip is moving up or has moved up due to positive sentiment in the mining sector. Hence, whethe...

India Real Estate's expectations from Budget 2015-16 Mumbai | February 02, 2015:  In the previous nine-month Budget, the new government outlined its vision for boosting affordable housing. Provide On-Ground impetus for affordable housing  In the previous nine-month Budget, the new government outlined its vision for boosting affordable housing. From the upcoming 12-month budget, the Indian real estate sector looks forward to provisions that firm this vision up on the ground.       Provide tax incentives to boost rental housing segment  The Union Budget needs to provide tax incentives for renting out of residential properties. Currently, rental income is treated as normal taxable income. Providing tax breaks specific to rental income will give a significant boost to rental housing segment in the country, and help increase rental supply in the metros.    Enable faster project approvals   Developers have been campaigning fo...

Exporters seek minerals export duty abolished Govt levied 5% export duty on pellets, 10% on bauxite and 30% on chromite and iron ore Mumbai  February 3, 2015: Mineral exporters have urged the government to abolish export duty to compete with other suppliers in global markets and make way for further excavation at mine sites. In a pre-budged submission to the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Kolkata based Indian Ore Exporters' Association, a body represented by hundreds of iron ore miners in eastern states including Odisha, argued that low grade iron ore mined automatically while mining high grade is not used by domestic steel mills. Therefore, its exports should be encouraged to vacate the minesites where the same is deposited. "The government levied 30% export duty to discourage exports of iron ore, to promote steel production in India and to conserve natural resources. To protect the interest of miners, the government rolled out incentives to build pellet plant...

Edible oil sector may see fourfold capex rise India Ratings says there is likely to be fresh capital investment of Rs.450 Cr in 2014-15 Mumbai  May 27, 2014: With the outlook turning positive for edible oil refiners, new investment in the oilseed crushing and refining industry is likely to see a fourfold rise this financial year. India Ratings say there is likely to be fresh capital investment of Rs.450 crore in 2014-15 as compared to Rs.100.7 crore in FY14 and Rs.516 crore in FY13. Large producers such as Liberty Oil Mills, Haryana Oils & Soya and Rasoya Proteins (RPL) have already readied investment plans. Market leader Ruchi Soya Industries has focused on consolidation in its business, with increased focus on brand promotion. “There is requirement of higher working capital for refiners, especially on account of inventory and receivables. This is because refining, unlike trading, requires companies to stock inventory for a higher period (especially raw ...

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT Today, the key indices edged lower. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, fell below the psychological 29,000 mark as the two key benchmark indices -- the Sensex and the 50-unit CNX Nifty -- extended losses in late trade. The Sensex and the Nifty, both, hit 1-1/2-week closing low. The CNX Nifty fell 78.65 points or 0.89% to settle at 8,754.95, its lowest closing level since 12 February 2015. The index hit a low of 8,736.10 in intraday trade. The index hit a high of 8,869 in intraday trade. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was negative. On BSE, 1,697 shares fell and 1,192 shares rose. A total of 125 shares were unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 90.76 points or 0.84% to settle at 10,745.42. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 36.76 points or 0.32% to settle at 11,389.48. The fall in these two indices was lower than the Sensex's decline in percentage term. Today (23-Feb-2015), while FIIs were net buyers o...

India Budget 2015-16:Duty hike on Steel imports may help the industry Photo : Reuters February 20, 2015: India is currently the 4th largest producer of crude steel in the world as against its 8th position in 2003. But the sector is hit by an abnormal surge in imports. On this background the metals and mines sector will be looking forward to the union budget on February 28 with the duty hike on mind.  Angel Broking has said they expect the government to increase import duty on steel, in view of the increasing steel imports from China and Russia.  Total steel imports in India during 9MFY2015 have increased 57.5% yoy, led by a slowdown in the Chinese economy, steep depreciation in Russian Rouble and free trade agreement with Korea. The Steel Ministry is also seeking a waiver of the 2.5% import duty on all its raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, limestone, dolomite and scrap. We do not believe this is likely. The government may however look to redu...

Global steel output fell 2.9 pc in Jan, India bucks trend [ Editor : This is a positive news for India, and especially those who are holding the steel counters. Meanwhile, the government is likely to come up with measures in the budget-2015-16, to protect the domestic steel sector. In such circumstances, stay put in steel and mining spaces] Feb 20, 2015: NEW DELHI: Global steel production declined by 2.9 per cent in January largely due to 4.7 per cent drop in Chinese output even as Russia, the US and India contributed more among major producing nations.  Global steel production declined to 133.10 million tonnes (MT) in January from 137.09 MT a year earlier, data compiled by World Steel Association (WSA) showed.  Even as output in China fell to 65.5 MT from 68.7 MT a year ago, its contribution remained nearly half of the global production during the month. Japan's production also fell by 4 per cent to 9 MT and South Korean production declined by 5 per cent to 5....

Secondary steel market sputters on weekend in India Saturday, 21 Feb 2015: The brief spurt in raw material and steel prices witnessed over the last 3 days in India's secondary sector steel market, up on sentiments rather by increased demand, sputtered on weekend removing hopes of recovery in last leg of financial year Price level of input material as well as finished had made rally over the last 3 days unexpectedly. The rally was primarily seen as firming up of domestic sentiments on the back bottoming out of iron ore and scrap levels in the international market.  Sponge iron price declined at all major locations by INR 100 to INR 200 per tonne due to oversupply and weakening sentiment in finished market. Scrap price levels remained firm though since IF's indulged in stock replenishment in anticipation of further price increase. However the price levels at Alang for ship breaking and plate cutting scrap dipped. Pencil ingot price levels corrected at most...

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT Jindal Saw Ltd touched Rs.86.15 intra-day and closed at Rs.84.65 giving a break-out on the daily candle stick chart. Today it also closed above its 150D EMA. Moreover, 100D EMA is above its 200D EMA, further adding to the bullishness. The next targets for the scrip are Rs.92-97--stay invested.  Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd today closd at Rs.83.30 just a tad below its 52-week high price of Rs.85 made yesterday. The investors should book some profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.79. UCO Bank Ltd recommended around Rs.70.50 last week today touched Rs.73.25 intra-day before closing at Rs.72.30 up 2.33%. The next targets for the scrip are Rs.77-85. Stay invested, with a SL of Rs.67. Resurgere Mines and Minerals Ltd today hit 20% Upper Circuits at Rs.1.57, on the speculation that the government of India could reduce export duty on iron ore fines along with other low grade ores (including bauxite), in the coming budget. The company...

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT Yesterday, I mentioned about buy recommendation for Jindal Steel and Power Ltd at Rs.156 for a target of Rs.162 from a brokerage house, the scrip today made an intra-day high of 200.80 before closing at Rs.195.30 up 26.24%. Now, I hear that HDFC Securities Ltd has recommended Jindal Saw Ltd at Rs.80-83, for a target of Rs.100. Today Jindal Saw Ltd made an intra-day high of Rs.84.50 before closing at Rs.83.40 up 7.89%. If you remember, the scrip was recommended at Rs.77-78, yesterday.  Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd which was recommended at Rs.48.95 on 22 January, 2015 today made an intra-day high of Rs.64.40 before closing at rs.63.30 up 3.52%. In the process the stock reached all its short term targets.  Today, the share of high-risk-high-gain, (BSE A-group edible oil producer and retailer) Rasoya Proteins Ltd (RPL) was recommended at around Re.0.60, for a target over Re.1. Rasoya Proteins Ltd is ...