Wednesday, May 15, 2013

SKS Microfinance Ltd: A Turnaround Story About to Unfurl
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The scrip of SKS Microfinance Ltd fell from its all time high of Rs.1452 to the current price of Rs.124, indicating that there is huge potential for the investors to get good appreciation on their investments; if they have faith in the company' management. Meanwhile, the company has staged in a turnaround with a new business model. In between, the FIIs' holding has increased to 35.94% as of 31st March, 2013. Moreover, non--institutional holding has also come down both on sequential basis and on Q-o-Q basis, increasing the premium of the shares of the company.
Also, if we do a bit of further analysis we would find that its 50 DEMA is higher than 200 DEMA and its 100 DEMA is higher than both 150 DEMA and 200 DEMA. In the same way, its 100 DSMA is higher than both the 150 DSMA and 200 DSMA.  All, this points that the scrip is readying to move up in the short term.
Recently, there were media reports that, SKS Microfinance, the biggest micro-lender in the country, is set to post its first full-year profit this fiscal (FY14) after regulatory changes hit its business in 2010. Based on the performance for the quarter ended March and the reduction in the full-year losses for fiscal 2013, the company is expecting to post a profit of Rs.55-60 crore in this fiscal.
“We are targeting a disbursement of about Rs.4,500-4,800 crore in the current fiscal as against Rs.3,200 crore in the last. This would result in a total portfolio of about Rs.2,800-3,000 crore as against Rs.2,000 crore in fiscal 2013. All this would result in a profit of Rs.55-60 crore for the full year in fiscal 2014,” S Dilli Raj, SKS’ chief financial officer, told  a financial daily in this month.
For the quarter ended March 2013, SKS posted a 11% year-on-year rise in income at Rs.95.09 crore as against Rs.85.05 crore in the December quarter. Net profit doubled to Rs.2.70 crore as against Rs.1.15 crore posted in the sequential quarter. For the full year ended March 2013, the company’s income fell to Rs.332.2 crore from Rs.435.7 crore in the previous year. It, however, booked a lower loss of about Rs.297.14 crore as against Rs.1,360.59 crore in the previous year, which is thing to be appreciated.
“We are confident of booking profits for the full year this fiscal. The cost of funds too has significantly come down to about 12% from the earlier 13.2%. There is further headroom for us to bring the costs down though the reduction in the rates is linked to the anchor rates,” Raj said. The company is currently operating in 19 states, excluding Andhra Pradesh
It is pertinent to mention here that, the company slipped into significant losses after Andhra Pradesh, a key market for microfinance institutions (MFIs), promulgated a law to discipline the micro-lenders that were indulging in coercive recovery practices. SKS’s operations in the state, which accounted for about a third of the total portfolio, had come to a grinding halt, forcing the company to look for other markets.  “Now, the impact of the Andhra Pradesh MFI Act is behind us. We are gearing up for growth and our strategy to turn around the operations has worked,” Raj said.
Conclusion: Looking at the above factors and considering the turnaround of the company's business, the investors can take a bet on the scrip at the CMP of Rs.124 for a target of Rs.141-142, with the next 3-4 weeks.